Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua
Odds: (-185 Machida / +155 Rua )
The main event of the evening is a highly anticipated Light Heavyweight Title rematch between Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Shogun appeared to control the majority of their first fight, but lost a split decision that was met with boos by the fans and incredulity by almost everyone who saw it. Still, Machida is a dangerous fighter and the first fight was not hugely decisive, so this is a very compelling matchup.
Machida, the champion, earned his crown with a mixture of deadly handspeed, nearly impenetrable defense, and incredible counter punching, not to mention a healthy dose of top-notch takedown defense. A very complete fighter with no glaring holes in his skill set, Machida’s one weakness is that he is oftentimes wary of pressing the action in his fights, opting instead to backpedal and counterpunch, which got him into a lot of trouble last time he fought Shogun. He can’t expect two gift decisions in a row, so if he wants to avoid spending the whole fight backing up and getting leg kicked and punched to the body he is going to have to actually move forward for once, something he is capable of doing for sure.
Shogun, who many felt won the first fight in clear fashion, is a very dangerous and well-rounded fighter in his own right. A muay thai expert with good hands, good leg kicks, and deadly knees from the clinch, Shogun also has a very underrated ground game with excellent top control and vicious ground and pound. His game plan last time was perfect, the only flaw was that the judges didn’t seem to be watching the same fight. If he can press the action and make Machida pay for his lack of aggression again, he should become the new champion.
I think that this time, Shogun gets the win he deserved in their first meeting. If Machida tries to play his evade and counterpunch game, Shogun already showed that he has an answer for it, and if Machida tries to press the action a bit more I think that plays into Shogun’s aggressive style and puts him at risk of getting caught up in the clinch and punished. Machida is too wily to get finished, probably, but I expect a similar fight to their first one, only with a proper decision rendered at the end.
Prediction: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via unanimous decision.
- Bet on the UnderDog Rua @ +155 for the Win. Get your bet in soon before the odds for Rua shrink.
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