UFC 114 – Rampage VS. Evans takes place this Saturday in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event will be the long awaited epic grudge match between former UFC Light Heavyweight champions and TUF coaches Rashad Evans and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. The winner will get the next shot at the 205 lb. belt. Also appearing on the card are Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Michael Bisping, Todd Duffee and Diego Sanchez.
As always, Mike Hammersmith, a friend and freelance MMA writer for sites like MMAMafia, will be giving MMAMoneyLine viewers another viewpoint along with additional analysis and recommendations. Here are myself and Mike’s top plays for this weekend’s UFC 114 card. To check out Mike’s picks for the full card, check out his writeup at MMAMafia or MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 114 – Rampage VS. Evans Pros’ Picks.
Cyrille Diabate – Mike Hammersmith (+300 on Bodog/BetUS)
An old hand of the MMA world, and well known in Muay Thai and other Traditional Martial Art circles, Cyrille “The Snake” Diabate got his first taste of the UFC as Dan Henderson’s Muay Thai coach on TUF 9, and will be making his debut at UFC 114 against Luiz Cane. Diabate has never been a killer in the MMA world, due to a build that’s terribly unforgiving against wrestlers, but has still managed to earn 16 wins in 23 fights, despite the fact he’s averaged two MMA bouts a year for the last 11 years. At no point do I think Diabate will tear through the division and walk away with a title, but I do think he has what it takes to defeat his first foe.
Luiz Cane has been a dark horse in the UFC since the beginning due to his nuclear-powered left straight, incredible chin, and tenacious forward movement standing. This skill set has been enough to put away fighters like Sokoudjou and Jason Lambert in convincing fashion, but Cane has ran into some trouble in his last two. The first of these was a bout with Steve Cantwell, which he won by a razor-thin decision based on his ability to counter-punch, but which showed holes in his armor against active technical strikers. If Cantwell showed where the holes were, Cane’s bout with Nogueira showed how to drive a fist through them, as Nogueira put a tremendous beating on Cane, breaking his eye socket and knocking him out cold in under two minutes, with his crisp boxing skills.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira – Mike Hammersmith (-550 on BetUS)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira should be no stranger to fight fans, and after his thorough destruction of Luiz Cane, Nogueira was set to take on Forrest Griffin while on the bullet train to the top of the division. Unfortunately, Griffin was sidelined with an injury, and after several high-profile fighters turned the bout down, a replacement was found in lightly-regarded Jason Brilz.
For those unfamiliar, Brilz is a part-time fighter, part-time wrestling coach, and full-time firefighter, who has fought in dark matches for the UFC for some time. He’s known for having heavy, although wild punches, and some of the most suffocating wrestling in the division, with both strong clinch and double leg takedowns.
Although Brilz is a tough fight for many, Nogueira is possibly the worst fight in the division for him, due to his world-class boxing and BJJ skills. No matter where this bout goes, Brilz is going to be in trouble, and even at -550, Nogueira makes a wise bet.
Melvin Guillard – MMAMoneyLine (-325 on Sportsbook)
There’s two kinds of mixed martial artists who beat Melvin Guillard: BJJ aces and high level wrestlers. Waylon Lowe is neither. “The Young Assassin” is a gigantic Lightweight who has as much KO power and athleticism as anyone in the division. Along with his dangerous striking, his takedown defense has come a long way. Although Melvin doesn’t have the best sprawl in the world, it is very difficult to keep him on his back. The biggest knock on Guillard’s game has always been his mental state and submission defense. His recent time spent with Greg Jackson should have shrunk both of those holes considerably.
Waylon Lowe is making his UFC debut on short notice against Melvin Guillard…rough deal. Lowe is a decent wrestler, but will not have what it takes to keep Guillard on his back for three rounds. If Lowe can secure a takedown on Guillard, look for Melvin to use his hips to escape or simply use the cage to get back to his feet.
As Lowe’s gas tank wanes from trying to control a guy like Guillard, look for the New Orleans native to take advantage and unleash his quick, powerful hands en route to a 2nd round KO. If you were lucky enough to get Guillard in the -280 range, nice work. I believe he is still a very good bet at -325.
Dong Hyun Kim – MMAMoneyLine (+115 on SportsInt.)
I just flat out don’t think much of Amir Sadollah as a fighter. He does have good Muay Thai, underrated submissions and a difficult frame, but there are still a ton of holes in his game. In his biggest wins, he beat Phil Baroni in the twilight of his career, the submission defenseless CB Dollaway and Brad Blackburn…who apparently didn’t remember he was fighting that night.
Dong Hyun Kim is far from a can being fed to a TUF winner. He is still technically undefeated because of the overturned Parisyan decision. Stun Gun is a dangerous Judoka who’s grappling is simply on a different level. When you have a win over TJ Grant, Matt Brown and should have had a clean win over Karo Parisyan, it says a lot about your grappling ability. Although Sadollah does have the range to keep Kim at bay with front kicks, he won’t be able to keep it up for 15 minutes.
Stun Gun is a tough fighter, and Sadollah has no KO power. Because of this, Kim will have no problem taking a shot to get inside, where he will be able to control the physically inferior Sadollah. Once Kim gets his hands on the former TUF winner, he will drain his gas tank and control him en route to a dominant decision. Kim is good money at EVEN or better.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Evans/UD
Nogueira/TKO/2
Bisping/SD
Duffee/KO/1
Sanchez/SUB/2
Kim/UD
Escudero/TKO/1
Forbes/UD
Guillard/KO/2
Cane/TKO/3
Riley/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Evans – 1 u. at +120 on Sportsbook
Kim – 1 u. at +115 on Bodog
Guillard – 2 u. at -225 on Bodog