Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen
Odds: (-500 Silva /+300 Sonnen)
In the main event, the sport’s most dominant champion, Anderson Silva, will defend his Middleweight crown against brash wrestler Chael Sonnen. Silva has looked utterly unstoppable thusfar in the UFC, but he has never faced a wrestler as determined and dominant as Sonnen, so this is actually quite a compelling fight.
Sonnen is undeniably one of the most effective wrestlers in the sport’s history. Having fought at both 205 and 185, Sonnen has never faced anyone he couldn’t take down, and Anderson Silva doesn’t look to be the first. Every other part of his game is noticeably lacking, but his lack of standup has never really hurt him because of how unstoppable his takedowns are. What has hurt him is his utter lack of submission defense. Every loss in Sonnen’s career has come by submission, and in a five round fight, laying on top of a black belt for the entire duration is an extremely risky proposition.
Silva’s striking is clearly the best in the sport, and he can finish opponents with punches, kicks, knees, and any combination thereof. Against Sonnen, though, I don’t think Silva will get much chance to showcase his striking prowess. He showed against Demian Maia, Patrick Cote, and others that his striking is really only effective when he can counterpunch, and Sonnen is not going to give him that opportunity. Silva’s submissions are very effective, but his takedown defense has never been very good, so I don’t think this fight is going to spend much time on the feet.
I don’t think that there is any chance Silva prevents Sonnen from taking him down. Sonnen has taken down much better wrestlers than Silva with ridiculous ease, and he will do the same thing in this fight, whenever he wants. Silva is not going to get a chance to show off his dynamic striking offense because Sonnen is going to plant him on his back right out of the gate, every round. The question is whether or not Sonnen is capable of spending 25 minutes on top of a guy with Silva’s submission game and not making a mistake and getting caught. I just don’t see how he can finish Silva on the ground, and I don’t see how he can go that long without letting Silva sneak a triangle past him or sticking his head right into a guillotine choke. This will not look like most of Silva’s UFC fights, but he should eventually be able to catch Sonnen from the bottom to retain his title.
Prediction: Anderson “The Spider” Silva via third round triangle choke.
- If you Like Sonnen’s chances he may be worth putting down a small bet @+300
To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…