UFC 117 – Silva VS. Sonnen takes place tonight, August 7th in Oakland, California. The main event is one of the more intriguing Middleweight championship bouts in quite some time. UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva will be looking to continue his reign over the 185 lb. division against world-class wrestler Chael Sonnen. Sonnen’s unrelenting (and extremely entertaining) trash talk has turned this fight into must-see TV. Also appearing on the UFC 117 card is a number one contender fight between former Welterweight title challengers Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves.
Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC 117 card. Make sure to check out the Pros’ Picks as well! Enjoy the fights and best of luck with your bets.
Chael Sonnen – Mike Hammersmith (+350 on Bodog)
Perhaps not the pick you thought you’d see here, but hear me out. In the world of MMA betting, there are certain fundamentals that must be followed to properly predict the sport, such as stylistic differences, where a fight is likely to take place, etc, I feel the first fundamental of fight predictions is this: “You have to take your heart out of the fight.” While I may love certain fighters and despise others, the fact of the matter is they all have strengths and weaknesses to consider, and “I like/hate them” has nothing to do with how the fight will play out. Oftentimes with a beloved champion, you can never imagine someone could possibly come by and walk all over them, but such may be the case here with Chael Sonnen.
For me, this fight has a lot to do with technicalities and intangibles, and we’ll start with a look at the current champion Anderson Silva. Silva is perhaps the best technical striker to ever step into the cage, with a combination of accuracy, power, reflexes and sound fundamentals that make other great fighters look absolutely silly in comparison. Much like BJ Penn, I feel a focused and ready Anderson Silva, given the right opponent, is one of the best fighters you could hope for, and would go as far as to say he’s basically unbeatable against any kind of striker across any weight class. Two things stick out at me about Silva though, which leads me to believe he may be losing his belt on August 7th. One is that, while he puts on amazing displays against guys like Chris Leben, Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin, he can’t seem to find a will to win against guys like Patrick Cote, Demian Maia and Thales Leites. Being the greatest counter-striker in the sport is all well and good, but when you’re fighting someone who refuses to engage you on the feet, it shouldn’t lead to a twenty-five minute dance off. This leads to my second issue with Silva, that being his dedication to the sport.
Having talked about retirement for years, including leaving everything behind to pursue boxing, you have to question Silva’s motivation and dedication to being competitive in this sport. Silva strikes me as someone who likes a challenge, and looking at the situation realistically, in twelve fights under the UFC banner, he’s faced only three opponents who stood any chance of beating him (Lutter, Henderson, and Marquardt) and hasn’t faced anyone on his level in over two years. This, combined with threats from Dana White to fire him if he doesn’t take fights seriously, and we come to two scenarios. Either Silva will come into this fight with sometime to prove and attempt to destroy Sonnen, which I think will work more often than not, or he’ll come into this bout exactly as he has for his last several title defenses and play right into Sonnen’s game.
For Sonnen’s part of this, he brings several problems for Silva. Sonnen is easily the best pure wrestler Silva has ever faced, with a work ethic in the cage that would kill most people, but perhaps his greatest asset is his mind. Sonnen comes from a wise camp in Team Quest, and Sonnen’s style has long been one of the least favorite of fans for one main reason. He understands the fight game well enough to be constantly active from top position, making stand-ups rare in his bouts, but isn’t so active as to open himself up for disaster. With irresistible takedowns and a top game that lives little room for victory for his opponent, Sonnen brings just enough to the fight to win, but not enough to entertain.
Johny Hendricks – Mike Hammersmith -380 on SportsBet)
One of many highly-decorated wrestlers in the UFC, Johny Hendricks is riding an undefeated streak in his career, and showing improvement in every fight. His combination of suffocating top control, clinch wrestling and dirty boxing have allowed him to work over guys like Amir Sadollah and TJ Grant in competitive bouts, and given the right opponent, I think we’ll be seeing Hendricks at the top of the division within the next year. I think his next bout against Charlie Brenneman is about the perfect fight for him, as Brenneman comes into this as a very green wrestler who will have no leg to stand on against someone as talented as Hendricks. While the odds aren’t spectacular, taking Hendricks at -380 would make the best anchor bet of the night in my mind, as Brenneman lacks the tools to take this fight from him.
Jon Fitch is an underdog against a guy coming off brain surgery…just throwing that out there. If this fight took place with both guys being healthy and at the top of their games, its close to a coin flip. But Thiago Alves is rusty and missed weight for this fight. Because he missed weight, it is likely that he will come into this fight bigger than Fitch, but with that being said Fitch is a huge Welterweight who doesn’t get bullied.
Fitch hasn’t been knocked out in his career, and I expect him to use his wrestling to wear down the Pitbull. I am going to question Alves’ late fight cardio here moreso than Fitch’s because of his drastic, last minute weight cut. This fight has a Fitch decision written all over it, and if you can get him at -115 or under it is worth a bet.
Our line of thinking when it comes to MMA is a very “what have you done for me lately” approach. That kind of thinking has bitten us in the ass before (see Takanori Gomi, Mauricio Rua, Randy Couture etc.). You hear the word “retire” tossed around pretty freely on MMA blogs and message boards for anyone who has had more than 10 fights in the UFC. Matt Hughes is no exception to this.
Lets look at the facts: Matt Hughes has lost to Thiago Alves, BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre in recent memory. One of those guys is the best American Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player alive. One of those guys is arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world. One of those guys practically came into the fight as a Light Heavyweight. By saying Ricardo Almeida is going to win this fight, we’re putting him on the Alves/Penn/St. Pierre level.
Almeida is an absolute BJJ beast; he has some of the best submissions in MMA. Beyond that…not a whole hell of a lot. I’m going to give the former champion and possibly the greatest Welterweight of all time some respect here. He has the experience, wrestling and submission defense to warrant a bet at -155.
I left out Dennis Hallman‘s name off of the “people that have beaten Matt Hughes” list because it was forever ago. Hallman’s return to the UFC has been dramatic; he was on his way to decisioning John Howard before getting KTFO. With that being said, Ben Saunders is no John Howard.
There’s no reason to delve too deeply into this fight. Ben Saunders is a gigantic Welterweight whose size is a problem for everyone but the best wrestlers in the division. He is a beast in the clinch, has good submissions himself and has the “might be a little nuts” mentality that takes people a long way in this sport. Hallman gets knocked out quick…and -220 is a gift line here.
Stefan Struve – MMAMoneyLine (-185 on Bodog/Sportsbook)
The fact that Struve is better than -200 against a guy nobody has ever heard of is odd. Christian Morecraft‘s biggest tool is his size, but Struve is still bigger than him. Stefan Struve uses his long limbs very well on the ground and has very capable BJJ, especially for a guy his size. His striking is rudimentary at best, but he has a good chin and can use his striking to set up trips and takedowns.
Struve has been in there with some serious fighter. Whether hes won or lost, the experience gained from fighting the Junior dos Santos‘, Roy Nelson‘s and Paul Buentello‘s of the world give him an edge a newcomer like Christian Morecraft just doesn’t have. Look for a trip and submission win for the Skyscraper.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Silva/UD
Fitch/UD
dos Santos/TKO/2
Hughes/SD
dos Anjos/SUB/2
Boetsch/TKO/3
Saunders/KO/1
Hazelett/SUB/1
Hendricks/UD
Struve/SUB/1
Davis/SUB/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Fitch 1 u. at -115 on Sportsbook
Hughes – .5 u. at +140 on Sportsbook
Struve – 1 u. at -185 on Sportsbook
Saunders/Hazelett/Davis – .5 u. on Bodog