Lightweight bout: Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard
Odds: (-155 Florian /+125 Maynard )
Betting Pick: Kenny Florian
The third fight of the evening is a gigantic Lightweight clash with very clear title shot implications. With BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar meeting in the main event to decide a champion, Kenny “KenFlo” Florian and Gray Maynard will duke it out with the winner almost assuredly receiving the next shot at the belt. Maynard has been cementing his status as a top contender since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, while Florian has been firmly ensconced near the top of the division for a few years now.
Gray Maynard, who first appeared as a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 but was eliminated by Nathan Diaz just before the finals, has remained unbeaten since entering UFC competition in earnest. A dominant wrestler with solid punching power, Maynard is the only fighter who holds a win over current Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. In his last two fights, though, Maynard has not lived up to his potential. Although he won both fights, his decision over Roger Huerta was very controversial and his decision over Nathan Diaz was an outright robbery. Still, if Maynard executes his optimal gameplan of throwing power punches and forcing takedowns, he is going to be extremely difficult for anyone in the division to stop.
Kenny Florian has proven over the past few years that he belongs at the top of the Lightweight division. While he has fallen short in his attempts to capture the title, he has consistently dominated everyone else he has faced with his formidable mixture of powerful muay thai and top notch jiu-jitsu. He looked like a monster in his last two fights, completely dominating tough contender Clay Guida and dangerous veteran Takanori Gomi before submitting them both with rear naked chokes. Having also beaten Roger Huerta, Joe Lauzon, and Joe Stevenson convincingly, Florian has one of the most impressive resumes in the UFC at 155 pounds.
I think Maynard is in trouble here. Florian showed against Clay Guida that his takedown defense is serious, and he will viciously outbox Maynard. Furthermore, Florian is one of the better grapplers in the division, so even if Maynard is able to execute takedowns he is not out of the water, as Florian could sweep him or submit him off his back. I think Maynard is going to come into this fight gun shy like he was against Nathan Diaz, and Florian is going to make him pay for it by dropping him with punches and choking him out.
Prediction: Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian via second round rear naked choke.
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