UFC 118 Predictions

Not too many fighters have had as tough of a road in the UFC as Dan Miller, but with three loses in a row to top competition, the stage is set for him to take back his place at the top of the division. Miller is an interesting mix of wrestling and BJJ, and much like his brother Jim Miller, finds a way to meet force with slickness and slickness with force, having baited top-level wrestler Jake Rosholt into a quick tap guillotine, but also having muscled notoriously savvy grapplers Rob Kimmons and Matt Horwich by virtue of his wrestling talent and heavy top game.

His opponent is John Salter, who has the unenviable position of being a poor man’s Dan Miller, taking on Dan Miller. This is a fight Salter has practically no outs to win, being unable to stop Miller’s takedowns and submissions and not having the standing skills to do much in the face of a superior opponent. Additionally, the three losses in a row has seemed to scare book makers, as Miller at -265 is easily the best bet on the card, for my money.

Coming off a complete demolition of David “The Crow” Loiseau in his last bout, Miranda has flown under the radar in the UFC, but has a chance to launch himself deep into the Middleweight ranks here. A multiple-time national champion in both Greco Roman and Freestyle wrestling, Miranda compliments his grappling savvy with a BJJ black belt and strong technical muay thai skills, all packed into a giant Middleweight frame.

While we all know Maia is a killer on the mat, we’ve also all seen what happens when he can’t put a fight on the mat on his own terms. Miranda presents a real problem here with his multi-faceted skill-set, considerable size advantage, as well as a long training camp, part of which was spent dummying as Chael Sonnen against Maia’s last foe, Anderson Silva. This is a 50/50 fight as to whether or not Maia can put this on the mat and do anything to Miranda, or if he’ll be stymied by the lengthy striking and smart takedown attack of Miranda, and Miranda makes for a good underdog pick at +205.

Kenny Florian – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on Bodog)

Kenny Florian, thus far always the bridesmaid and never the bride.  The Massachusetts native has come a long way since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter.  For the last few years, Florian has been a stalwart in the elite class of UFC Lightweight.  His Muay Thai and mental game has caught up to his technical BJJ abilities and lanky, MMA-friendly physique, making him an extremely dangerous fighter.

Florian will have a tough fight against pedigreed wrestler, improving boxer and decision machine Gray Maynard.  How tough of a fight?  Not as tough as most people think.  Whenever a wrestler of Maynard’s level is involved, the possibility of a hard fought, grinding fight greatly increases.

However, Kenny Florian has several advantages in this fight.  He’s fought several high quality wrestlers already including Takanori Gomi, Clay Guida, Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson.  Against this foursome, he’s gone 3-1 with his only loss being to a bloodied and beaten Sherk.  Maynard has never fought anyone like Florian; the closest comparison probably being Nate Diaz.  In addition, I believe Maynard has too much confidence in his improved boxing.  If he stands with Florian, he’s likely in serious trouble.  Maynard elected to stand with Nate Diaz because of Diaz’s ground prowess, and I expect him to do the same against another high level BJJ practitioner.

In the end, Florian gets the better of Maynard in the striking and submission category.  Maynard does have a distinct wrestling advantage, but that comes against a very good submission fighter.  Plus, Maynard might not even use his wrestling as much as he should.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:  Kenny Florian only loses to the best, and Gray Maynard, although incredibly tough, is not the best.  I’d have little problem throwing a unit on Florian at -155.