Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader
Odds: (+150 Nogueira /-180 Bader )
Betting Pick: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
In the co-main event, Ultimate Fighter winner Ryan Bader will face another stiff test in the form of Top 10 Light Heavyweight Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Nogueira looked like a monster in his UFC debut, completely destroying Luis Arthur Cane, but looked very shaky in his last fight, a controversial split decision victory over huge underdog Jason Brillz. Bader, in the meantime, has dispatched all of his professional opponents in fairly routine fashion, although Little Nog does represent by far his toughest challenge to date.
Ryan “Darth” Bader, the Ultimate Fighter Season 8 winner, has looked completely dominant in all of his fights thus far. An accomplished wrestler, Bader has excellent takedowns and a smothering top control game. Unlike many wrestlers of his caliber, though, he also has solid technical boxing with a lot of punching power to go along with his grappling attack. The big question mark for Bader heading into this fight is whether or not his submission defense is up to snuff with the rest of his game. The only competent submission fighter Bader has ever faced, Vinny Magalhaes, got knocked out too fast to really test Bader’s defense, and that is an unlikely scenario agaisnt Little Nog, who is quite a dangerous striker in his own right.
Little Nog, long considered a top 10 Light Heavyweight, is a very well-rounded fighter with crisp, accurate, powerful boxing and world-class submissions. There is no question that he is the technically superior striker in this fight, and that he will give Bader’s submission defense a tough test. In his last fight, though, he looked somewhat lost in the wrestling, getting physically controlled by the unheralded Jason Brillz. Anything Brillz can do, wrestling wise, Bader can do better, so Nog is going to need a better game plan this time if he wants to avoid getting ragdolled for 15 minutes.
In the end, I think that this is a good fight for Little Nog. Bader is primarily a wrestler, but he is willing to stand and box, and that plays into Little Nog’s hands for sure. Just as importantly, taking Little Nog down is a far cry from a guaranteed safe game plan. Bader’s submission defense has never really been tested at all, much less to the extent that Little Nog is capable of testing it, and Bader has never had to deal with someone as good at sweeping and escaping as Nog is, either. I just think Little Nog has too many ways to win this fight, and that makes him a very attractive underdog pick, especially considering how skewed the betting lines for this fight are shaping up to be. I think eventually Noguiera will show Bader that, while his wrestling and striking are coming along nicely, he is going to need top-notch submission defense to survive at the top of the division. Little Nog by submission.
Prediction: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via third round arm triangle choke.
- Bet on the UnderDog Lil Nog @+150 for the victory and give Bader his first loss.
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