UFC 121 – Lesnar VS. Velasquez takes place this Saturday, October 23 in Anaheim, California. There are so many great fights and interesting storylines on this card that is it next to impossible not to be excited. Will fan favorite Cain Velasquez use his speed, stamina, and technique to beat up the polarizing Brock Lesnar? Will Jake Shields enter the UFC with a bang in hopes of fighting Georges St. Pierre in 2011? Will Matt Hamill prove that the student is superior to the teacher? UFC 121 is going to be a good one, for spectator and bettors alike.
Myself and my colleague Mike Hammersmith will be breaking down what we believe to be our best bets of the card (and there are several good bets to choose from). As always, make sure you line shop wisely by checking the UFC 121 odds, and also be sure to take a gander at the UFC 121 Pros’ Picks. It is to Saturday we now look…
Matt Hamill – Mike Hammersmith -170 on Bodog/BetUS)
My favorite bet for UFC 121 comes in the form of the first TUF coach vs. TUF student fight, when Season 3 coach Tito Ortiz takes on his number one pick, Matt “The Hammer” Hamill. The story of Tito Ortiz is a tail of a dominant early career, followed by a fairly continuous stream of injuries and management issues that has left him a shadow of his former self. While Ortiz was once known for his solid double leg and vicious ground and pound, he is far behind the curve in the wrestling realm, and with little to fall back on. Hamill comes into this fight with the sprawl to stop Ortiz every time, and the boxing to punish his former coach standing. While the odds have floated around for this fight, Hamill is a great bet at -170 to sprawl and brawl Ortiz to a late stoppage or decision win.
John Madsen – Mike Hammersmith -200 on Sportsbook)
Following one of the most depressing grappling exchanges I’ve ever seen, Gilbert Yvel will return to the cage, replacing a recently released Todd Duffee. Yvel hasn’t shown any of the fire he used to have in his Pride days, and having gone 0-2 thus far, it’s needless to say he’s in a do-or-die situation. His opponent is TUF 10 fighter Jon Madsen, who has toiled on the under cards thus far in his career, but has shown progress in each fight. This a stylistic nightmare for Yvel, as he faces a man who has absolutely no reservations about riding out the clock, and has all the skill to put Yvel on the mat over and over again. While Yvel does have one punch power, he’s going to have to use it to avoid being booted from the UFC.
With a style built to destroy guys like Yvel, and having shared a training camp with Brock Lesnar, we can expect the toughest Madsen we’ve ever seen. Yvel has a handful of chances to finish this fight standing, or risk being underneath the heavyweight wrestler for the entire fight. Don’t count on the flying knee landing for Yvel, as Madsen double legs his way to victory via decision, and is the most solid bet on the card at -200
Chris Camozzi – Mike Hammersmith (EVEN on Bodog/Bookmaker)
One of the many injured fighters from TUF 11, Chris Camozzi was forced off the show with a broken jaw, but was given a chance to fight at the season finale. Taking on James Hammortree at the TUF 11 Finale, he showed a skill set that could have won him the show had his health allowed it, using fast leg kicks, outside striking and a relentless pace. His opponent is a bit of an unknown, as Dong Yi Yang has spent the majority of his career in the lesser ranks of Asian MMA, and effectively off the radar. What we have seen of him makes me question the reason for signing him, as he brings a wild sluggers style that won’t get him far in the Middleweight division.
We don’t have much to go on for Yang, but what we do know isn’t very encouraging. Between this being his first fight overseas in the big show, coming from a less-than-stellar camp, and dropping nearly 40lbs for this fight, the cards appear to be stacked against him. Camozzi’s size, reach and overall pace should be enough to chip away at Yang, sapping his power, and taking the win. Surprisingly, Camozzi comes in as an underdog here, and while the odds aren’t as great as they were early, he’s still a great value pick at even money.
Brock Lesnar – MMAMoneyLine (-140 on BetUS/Bookmaker)
Brock Lesnar might be the least respected fighter in MMA. I know people don’t like him, but as MMA bettors we have to look at things without bias. Brock Lesnar is the champion who has beaten three UFC Heavyweight champions in Frank Mir, Randy Couture, and Shane Carwin. Lesnar has unbelievable strength and athleticism, very heavy hands, world class wrestling, and a formidable chin. He has also reportedly leaned up quite a bit, so he likely will not be at his usual 280-285 lbs. come fight time.
Cain Velasquez will be undersized going into this fight, but will have a speed and striking technique advantage. As for Velasquez’s apparently legendary cardio, I think the attention paid to it is laughable. Yes, Cain’s cardio is extremely impressive for a heavyweight, but Lesnar isn’t Yoshi Akiyama here. Lesnar’s cardio is every bit as much of a tool as Velasquez’s; you don’t beat the snot out of Heath Herring for three rounds without letting up if you don’t have cardio.
For Velasquez to win this fight, he is going to have to overwhelm Lesnar with strikes in the first round or knock him clean out early. As we’ve seen in the Carwin fight, Lesnar can be overwhelmed with strikes. However, Shane Carwin is one of the hardest strikers in MMA and the uppercut and knee he landed on Lesnar would have likely flat-lined any other fighter. When choosing between Velasquez’s one punch power and Lesnar’s chin, I’d take the Viking.
Many people are also pointing to Velasquez’s kicks as an advantage in this fight. If you kick Brock Lesnar, he will take you down. Once he takes you down, it’s difficult to get out from under him (especially if you come from a wrestling background).
In the end, Lesnar has better wrestling and power. Velasquez is going to give him a run in the first round, maybe even the second round. However, Brock is going to get a double leg sooner or later and finish Velasquez off with about 250 hammer fists. Lesnar’s line has really bottomed out lately, and I believe it will get better by Saturday. I’m fine with Lesnar at -140, but I can definitely see him getting down to -120 or lower.
Brendan Schaub – MMAMoneyLine (-150 on SportBet)
To be perfectly honest, I was going back and forth on this fight until today. Gabriel Gonzaga is an extremely streaky fighter who has the ability to land a one punch KO or quick submission. Finding a Heavyweight with Gonzaga’s striking power and BJJ acumen is very tough. It can be argued that all of his five career losses have been to world class competition (dos Santos, Carwin, Couture, Werdum twice).
However, MMA is a “what have you done for me lately” sport where a fighter’s recent performances are generally more indicative of how they are going to look in the cage. Going 3-2 in your last five fights with two of those wins coming against a newcomer and a poor fighter and one coming via horrendous ball shot doesn’t bode well.
It comes down to this: Gonzaga’s been knocked out five times in his career and Brendan Schaub has what it takes to make it six. Schaub has rebounded from his KO loss to Roy Nelson with two knockouts of his own, and if he stays away from a Gonzaga power shot it is likely he will get his third. Forget about both fighters’ ground work…this fight isn’t going there. If you’re betting on Schaub, get your bet in soon; his odds are getting worse by the day!
Ryan Jensen – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetUS)
What exactly has Court McGee done to be a -260 favorite against a UFC vet like Ryan Jensen? McGee looked good in his first UFC fight against Kris McCray, and looked improved in his later appearances on The Ultimate Fighter. However, it should also be noted that McGee barely got into the house in the first place and lost his first TUF fight.
McGee is a wrestler with decent stand up and a penchant for the guillotine and rear naked choke. Jensen’s Team Jackson training should go a long way to keep him from those chokes. I think these two fighters are pretty evenly matched, and the fact that you can get Jensen at +200 is good for MMA bettors.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Lesnar/TKO/2
Shields/UD
Thiago/SD
Hamill/UD
Schaub/KO/1
Jensen/SD
Cote/TKO/2
Stout/UD
Roberts/UD
Camozzi/SUB/1
Madsen/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Lesnar – 2 u. on BetUS
Schaub – .5 u. at +135 on Bodog
Jensen – .25 u. at +200 on BetUS
Stout – 1 u. at -170 on Sportsbook
Madsen – 1.5 u. at -200 on Sportsbook