UFC 122 – Marquardt VS. Okami takes place this Saturday, November 13th, in Oberhausen, Germany. The Chael Sonnen steroid controversy has led to the shuffling of this main event. Originally, Vitor Belfort was to take on Yushin Okami for #1 Middleweight contender status. However, now that Sonnen is out of an instant rematch with Anderson Silva, Vitor has been promoted to a title fight at UFC 126 while Nate Marquardt has stepped in to fight the tough Japanese fighter to headline UFC 122.
There are a lot of new faces on this card, as is the norm for overseas UFC events. With these new faces come possible betting potential. Myself and Mike Hammersmith will take a look at the three best bets for this weekend’s UFC card. In addition to our best bets, make sure to keep up to date on the UFC 122 odds and UFC 122 Pros’ Picks.
Nate Marquardt – Mike Hammersmith -210 on Bookmaker)
There are certain niche styles that make a fighter nearly impossible to beat for some, and easy pickings for others, and Okami has one such style. His lengthy striking and unmovable base has made him a nightmare for limited fighters like Jason MacDonald and Dean Lister, but Marquardt will suffer no such issues with the Japanese striker. Armed with huge power on the feet and underrated combination attacks, Marquardt should be able to stick and move on Okami, land power shots, and ultimately defeat Okami at his own game. At -210, Marquardt makes a fantastic anchor bet for this night of fights.
Jorge Rivera – Mike Hammersmith -115 on Bodog)
Jorge Rivera and Alessio Sakara are both old hands in the UFC, and will clash for the first time in a guaranteed slug fest. Rivera has had personal tragedy in his life in the last year, but with his confidence returned following a 3-0 run and beautiful victory over Nate Quarry, he will look to move forward in his career. His opponent is the notoriously hot and cold Alessio Sakara, who is himself on a three-fight win streak following a beating of the terribly dehydrated James Irvin in his last bout.
Vladimir Matyushenko – Mike Hammersmith (-270 on Bodog)
Overseas events always include a lot of new talent, and UFC 122 is no exception. One such new arrival comes to us in the Light Heavyweight division, as 18-6 Alexandre Ferreira makes his octagon debut. With twelve years in the sport, and a slew of submission grappling accomplishments, Ferreira comes into this fight looking like a real killer on paper, but will find out the hard way that paper doesn’t do much fighting. His opponent is another rugged veteran in Vladimir Matyushenko, who has managed to hold his own since returning to the UFC, and will have every advantage against newcomer Ferreira.
Looking closely at Ferreira, we immediately see issues with this match-up. A muscle-bound BJJ practitioner, the 5’7″ Ferreira will find himself at a huge height disadvantage against everyone in this division, including the average-sized Matyushenko. This leaves him well outside his comfortable shooting zone, meaning his take downs will be a slower than they need to be in the MMA arena. We also notice that while his record is impressive in a cursory sense, there are no submissions from bottom on his record, or knockouts. This leads us to believe that he’ll be depending on those take downs to get anything done in his fights, which is confirmed with the footage found online.
If a take down is your only hope of victory, you’d definitely want to avoid fighting someone like Matyushenko. While Matyushenko has started to look his age in recent bouts, the Belarusian fighter is still a powerful and technically sound wrestler, who has the simple striking game to fluster someone like Ferreira. Combine this with Ferreira’s over-sized frame and we’re sure to have a very tired Brazilian on our hands midway through this fight. Matyushenko has never been a great finisher, so I expect this one to go to a clear decision for Matyushenko after a match spent sprawling and sticking jabs into his opponent’s face.
Goran Reljic – MMAMoneyLine (-115 on BetUS/Bodog)
Both Goran Reljic and his opponent, Krzysztof Soszynski, are coming off losses. It is possible that both of these guys are on the UFC chopping block, although a Reljic loss is more likely to send him packing than a Soszynski loss. This fight comes down to which fighter has more tools to be successful. Reljic’s main weakness is his take down defense, as seen in the CB Dollaway fight. However, Soszynski is not much of a shooter; he is a fighter who likes to box and clinch his opponents.
Reljic will have the advantage in both the striking and the submission department. In addition, he isn’t the best guy to get into a clinch with. Soszynski will have a strength advantage, but I am starting to question his chin after getting knocked out by Stephan Bonnar.
If Soszynski’s camp is smart, they will have told him to look for an early take down. However, I have to assume that Soszynski will come in looking to box and clinch. He will get hit by Reljic, who has the potential to cause some real damage on the feet. I think a late Reljic stoppage or a clear decision is a good bet.
Karlos Vemola – MMAMoneyLine (-105 on SportBet)
Someone is an underdog against Seth Petruzelli! A few notable items here: Petruzelli did look good in the first round of his last fight with Ricardo Romero, but ultimately gassed in the second and submitted to an armbar. Petruzelli’s crowning MMA achievements have been knocking out Kimbo Slice (…) and beating a 106 year old Dan Severn. Nothing tells me he is going to be able to overwhelm a beast like Karlos Vemola, either on the feet or on the floor. Although Vemola did not look great against Jon Madsen, nobody really looks great against Jon Madsen. Vemola has never been submitted, never been knocked out, is dropping down from Heavyweight, and will have a huge strength advantage. With that information alone, I’m happy taking him at -120 or better.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Marquardt/UD
Rivera/KO/2
Siver/UD
Sadollah/UD
Reljic/TKO/2
Matyushenko/UD
Vemola/SUB/2
Noke/SD
Osipczak/SUB/1
Rocha/SUB/2
Krauss/SD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Rivera – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog
Reljic – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog
Vemola – 1 u. at -105 on SportBet