This Saturday’s UFC 123 – Machida VS. Rampage takes place in Auburn Hills, Michigan. The main event, which may very well be a #1 contender match up, will feature two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions in Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida. Filling out the rest of this Saturday’s main card is a rubber match between two MMA legends in Matt Hughes and BJ Penn and a very important Lightweight scrap between George Sotiropoulos and Joe Lauzon.
There are some solid betting opportunities for UFC 123, as I see some fighters being clearly overvalued. Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 123. Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on the UFC 123 odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 123 Pros’ Picks.
Phil Davis – Mike Hammersmith -525 on SportBet)
One of the best prospects to step into the cage at 205lbs, “Mr Wonderful” Phil Davis has gone undefeated in his young career, and used his early fights wisely to gain precious ring time. Having added an incredible striking arsenal in a very short time, Davis has become a complete fighter, and will be a real handful for anyone in this division. His opponent is veteran fighter Tim Boetsch, who made his return to the UFC following a successful stint in the regional circuit, and was victorious in his last bout against Todd Brown.
While everyone loves Boetsch’s bout with David Heath for his “Barbarian Toss”, the fact of the matter is, he’s a simple fighter with a couple of unique moves in his arsenal. Once you get past the uppercut leads and front kicks, Boetsch isn’t any more dangerous than the slew of strikers at 205lbs, and makes for another step for Davis on his way to the top of the division. Look for Davis to gain a little more ring time by working his stand-up and fast take downs on an overwhelmed Boetsch, walking away with another victory. Even with a line like -525, this is a fight Davis essentially can’t lose, and makes for one of the best conservative bets in a long time.
Gerald Harris – Mike Hammersmith (-255 on SportBet)
Playing the roll of welcoming committee for the fourth fight in a row, Gerald Harris will face UFC new-comer Maiquel Falcao on the main card. Harris has done well for himself since talking his way into the UFC, with three stoppage wins in three fights, and will face someone he’s well suited against here.
Maiquel Falcao comes to us from the Chute Boxe camp, and with an impressive record of 25-3 with all but one win by stoppage, seems like a hot prospect on paper. Looking at footage though, we see that Falcao is firmly in the Chute Boxe mold, with a hard-style striking game and relentless pace that won’t do him many favors against a slick wrestler like Harris. Armed with a puncher’s chance, Falcao will play the odds in his UFC debut.
If we’ve learned anything about Chute Boxe fighters, it’s that they don’t hold up outside of the lower-level Brazilian MMA world. While Falcao could land a KO shot early, Harris is far too patient to rush into anything, and his takedowns should be all he needs to win this fight. Look for a fast shot and fast finish by Harris to finish this one in the first, or early second round. Wait til after the weigh-ins here as money has been coming in for Falcao steadily,and should lead to great odds for Harris.
Aaron Simpson – Mike Hammersmith (+145 on BetOnline)
In another tremendously close fight, Aaron “A-Train” Simpson will take on fellow wrestler Mark Munoz in huge fight for both men. With Simpson coming off a high-profile loss to Chris Leben, and Munoz coming off a loss to Yushin Okami, this is a chance for two similar fighters to come out at the top of the heap.
Both men came out of the box with stellar wrestling credentials and proved to have heavy hands in those early bouts, but have found need of polish as they stepped into the middle of the UFC pack. While Munoz is a bit young and better conditioned, Simpson has the advantage of freakish accuracy with his hands and has run through the majority of his opponents to date with his novice, yet powerful stand-up skills. With Munoz having the higher ceiling of the two, it’ll be interesting to see where both men stand come fight time.
With the wrestling contest likely being a wash, we’ll have a striking match on our hands here. While Munoz is a bit more polished in the striking department, Simpson is an absolute horror in the first few minutes of a fight and Munoz chin has been found faulty in the past. This is a close bout, but one I think Simpson can take in the first couple minutes if he’s true to form, and one worth the risk at +145.
Dennis Hallman – MMAMoneyLine (+135 on BetUS)
I have to admit…I was pretty shocked to see Dennis Hallman as the underdog here. Karo Parisyan will be making his return to the octagon after close t a year hiatus. In his last fight against Dong Hyun Kim, he won a very close and controversial decision which was a moot point after his subsequent failed drug test. After the Kim fiasco, Parisyan pulled out of a fight with Dustin Hazelett at the last minute, sparking Dana White to publicly say Karo would never fight in the UFC again. Lucky for Parisyan fans, White has a short memory when it comes to kicking fighters out of the UFC.
Karo Parisyan is deceptively strong, very experienced, and has some of the best Judo in MMA. However, his mental strength is a huge question mark. In his most recent fight for the Impact FC promotion, he requested his fight be moved from the co-main event slot to the curtain jerker due to his anxiety. Unfortunately, there is no avoiding the bright lights for a surely-packed, start studded UFC 123. For further evidence on how a fighter’s mental game effects his performance, watch Sonnen/Filho II.
Karo Parisyan aside, Dennis Hallman has looked very good in his most recent UFC stint. Hallman, one of the most veteran guys on the UFC roster, decisioned the talented Ben Saunders in August. Although his return fight to the UFC against John Howard was a late knockout loss, Hallman dominated the fight to that point.
Stylistically, it is going to be difficult for either guy to finish. Karo wins more than half of his fights by submission, and Hallman hasn’t been submitted in his 50+ fight career. Hallman has 32 submission victories on his record, but Parisyan has yet to be submitted in his career. This fight is very likely to go to a decision, where Hallman’s condition and recent activity should give him the advantage late.
If this fight were to happen without any obvious mental issues, I think Parisyan would win this fight in the clinch. Hallman found success against Howard and Saunders with clinch work and take downs, but Parisyan is a monster in the clinch. Since both of these guys are far from impressive on the feet, this fight will be fought in the clinch and on the ground. While I can definitely see Parisyan throwing Hallman in the clinch, I can also see Hallman taking Parisyan down. I think Karo wins the first round, and his conditioning fails him against a very tough opponent in the second and third en route to a decision loss. I like Superman’s odds as an underdog, as there is no way I can bet on Parisyan in his current state.
BJ Penn – MMAMoneyLine (-160 on SportBet)
BJ Penn and Matt Hughes have many similar situations throughout their fight career. Besides being legends of MMA, both guys were once unbeatable champions in their respective weight classes. Both fighters have also been deemed “over the hill” when knocked off of their thrones by very deserving champions in Frankie Edgar and George St. Pierre. This weekend is the perfect time for Penn and Hughes to have the final fight of their three fight series.
Hughes comes into this fight with momentum; he was the underdog against Ricardo Almeida when he submitted him in August. Before the Almeida fight, his performances against Renzo Gracie and Matt Serra were widely criticized, albeit victorious. Penn is coming into this fight with absolutely no momentum; he lost a razor thin decision to Frankie Edgar in April and botched his chance at redemption in August. In addition, Penn lost to Hughes in their last meeting.
I think momentum matters less in this fight because of the level of professionalism both guys enjoy. Penn and Hughes are consummate veterans who are a little “long in the tooth” to deal with the same pressure and anxiety that most fighters face. This fight comes down to two things: skill and determination. Skill wise, BJ Penn has superior striking and submissions while Matt Hughes enjoys a wrestling and strength advantage. Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think we have to worry about either guy’s gas tank. As far as determination goes, Matt Hughes has little problem getting up for a fight considering his uber-competitive nature. I think BJ Penn is pissed and embarrassed at his last two performances, and is very focused going into this weekend.
Bluntly put, Matt Hughes isn’t Frankie Edgar. Edgar has dynamic, frustrating striking coupled with blinding speed that is difficult for any Lightweight to deal with. Hughes is a rudimentary striker whose attack is slow, calculated, and powerful. For Hughes to win this fight, he is going to have to take BJ down and not get submitted. Edgar was able to take Penn down more times than Penn has been taken down in his entire career, but most of that can be attributed to Edgar’s flawless synthesis of striking and take downs. Penn won’t have to worry about Hughes’ striking, making defending the take down much easier. Say what you will, but Penn is still one of the hardest guys to put on the mat in MMA.
Best case scenario for Hughes is that he gets the fight to the floor from a take down or the clinch. He then still has to deal with the fact that he is laying on top of arguably the greatest American BJJ practitioner alive. I have no problem assuming that Penn will dominate this fight standing, stand up quickly when taken down, or find a submission in a scramble or from the bottom. Most likely, this fight ends with a decisive decision in Penn’s favor. I still like the former Lightweight and Welterweight champ at -160, and bravo for those who got him when he was actually an underdog when the line first came out.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Machida/UD
Penn/UD
Sotiropoulos/SUB/2
Davis/SUB/1
Harris/TKO/2
Foster/SD
Simpson/UD
Hallman/UD
Griffin/SD
Kelly/TKO/3
Barboza/KO/1
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Penn – 2 u. at +105 on Sportsbook
Simpson – .5 u. at +120 on Bodog
Foster – 1 u. at -140 on Sportsbook
Hallman -1 u. at +125 on Bodog
Hallman/O’Brien/Lullo – .25 on BetUS (a guy can hope, can’t he?)