UFC 124 – St. Pierre VS. Koscheck II takes place this Saturday, December 11th, in Montreal. The main event will be a rematch between UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and number one contender Josh Koscheck. Rounding out the main card is a Muay Thai lover’s dream between Thiago Alves and John Howard and a battle between two TUF winners in Joe Stevenson and Mac Danzig.
As standard procedure, myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be giving our best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 124 card. There aren’t a ton of betting opportunities on this card, but there are definitely some under card diamonds in the rough. Before you throw your money down on this weekend’s UFC 124, make sure to keep current on the UFC 124 odds. Also, check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 124 Pros’ Picks and MMAMoneyLine’s MMA Fighter Profiles (by clicking a fighter’s name on the main page).
Thiago Alves – Mike Hammersmith -265 on Sportsbook)
Another great example of how the battlefield principle has a profound effect on a fight, the dangerous Thiago Alves will take on John Howard in a spirited striking bout. Alves brings some of the most dangerous stand-up in the division to this bout, but his title hopes have been dashed time and again by the superior technical wrestlers at welterweight. While Howard has a good deal of talent everywhere this fight goes, he doesn’t have the kind of wrestling that will put Alves on his back here, making this a stand-up bout that he’s woefully unprepared for. You can count on the fast hands and hard chin of Alves to be more than enough to batter Howard here, leading to a TKO win or easy decision for the top-tier Welterweight.
Joe Stevenson – Mike Hammersmith (-265 on SportBet)
In a battle of TUF winners, TUF 2′s Joe “Daddy” Stevenson will make his return to the cage, taking on TUF 6′s Mac Danzig in what will likely be Danzig’s swan song. While neither fighter has found the ability to consistently defeat top competition at Lightweight, Danzig has posted a 3-4 record in the promotion, with all losses coming by way of a man-handling on the mat. Stevenson’s wrestling, pace, and submission defense make this a terrible fight for Danzig, as he’ll find himself fighting off his back for the entire match-up against someone well-equipped to defeat him in that realm. In a grappling and boxing clinic, Stevenson takes the fight to Danzig and walks away with a decision win before moving back up the ladder.
Sean McCorkle – MMAMoneyLine (+130 on BetUS)
Sean McCorkle will be making his second UFC appearance against tough as nails Stefan Struve. McCorkle is coming off an impressive submission victory against veteran Mark Hunt (impressive because he was able to beat a vet like Hunt in his UFC debut, not because he was able to submit the very submittable Hunt). McCorkle will have his hands full against the savvy Struve.
Stefan Struve’s advantages in most of his fights are his height, toughness, and submission acumen. Against McCorkle, his height will be negated. McCorkle is 6’7″ compared to Struve’s 6’11″. While there is still a four inch difference, McCorkle will have an obvious strength advantage over the gangly Netherlands native. This strength advantage for McCorkle will manifest itself both on the feet and on the floor. Struve’s toughness will be tested often by McCorkle, and although the Skyscraper is very hard to KO, he has been rocked several times by lesser competition (see Christian Morecraft, Paul Buentello, Denis Stojnic).
While Struve has the ability to get a sneaky sub on the undefeated McCorkle, he is going to take a beating just to get the chance. McCorkle will be able to beat Struve to the punch, handle Struve’s submission attempts, and muscle Struve around the octagon. Sean McCorkle by TKO in the second looks good, especially when Big Sexy is at +140.
Jesse Bongfeldt – MMAMoneyLine (+140 on Sportsbook)
Jesse “Water” Bongfeldt (see what he did there?) will be making his UFC debut against Rafael Natal. You may know Natal as the guy who beat Travis Lutter on the indie circuit and lost against Rich Attonito in his UFC debut. Sapo also holds a victory over UFC and WEC vet Danillo Villefort.
Bongfeldt holds victories over fellow UFC 124 participants TJ Grant and Sean Pierson. Beating Grant with a submission is an impressive feat, and speaks volumes about Bong’s grappling skills. Both Natal and Bongfeldt have the ability to win by knockout or submission, are similar in height and weight, and have fought top level competition.
In the end, I’m leaning towards Bongfeldt because of his impressive outing against Grant in 2008. He is tough and has hung in there through some real beatings and pulled out the victory. Compared to Natal’s hesitant, almost lackadaisical fight style, I believe Bongfeldt might be more motivated. The fact that he is an underdog at +130 makes a bet on him even more appealing. Bongfeldt by unanimous decision.
Sean Pierson – MMAMoneyLine (+250 on Sportsbook)
Like many other MMA analysts and bloggers, I too believe Matt Riddle versus Sean Pierson is a coin flip. The odds say different, as Pierson is currently a +250 underdog on Sportsbook. Both guys have the same strengths: wrestling, aggressiveness, strength. To be honest with you, I think Matt Riddle probably wins this fight slightly more than he loses, even though many knowledgeable people are picking Pierson for the upset. However, as a smart bettor you have to play the numbers here. Getting Sean Pierson at 29% is a risk worth taking.
John Makdessi – MMAMoneyLine (+120 on Sportsbook)
Both John Makdessi and his opponent Pat Audinwood have found success against mid-level opposition. Each guy has been in the cage with one top level caliber fighter in Bendy Casimir and Thiago Tavares respectively. This fight will be a styles clash, as Makdessi has very dangerous kickboxing and Audinwood has sound grappling.
I wasn’t too impressed with Audinwood in his first UFC fight against Tavares…however I will give him the benefit of the doubt in that Tavares is a talented veteran. On the other hand, I’ve been hearing a lot about Makdessi. He trains with Georges St. Pierre’s striking coach, Firas Zahabi, and has numerous kickboxing medals and accolades.
What makes this fight most difficult for Audinwood is the lethal striking/take down defense combo that Makdessi possesses. Audinwood is going to take some shots in order to get a chance to use his bread and butter submission game. I’m going with Makdessi here…better striking, better training, better power.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
St. Pierre/TKO/3
McCorkle/TKO/2
Oliveira/SUB/2
Stevenson/UD
Alves/KO/2
Bocek/SD
Almeida/SUB/2
Miller/UD
Bongfeldt/UD
Pierson/UD
Makdessi/TKO/3
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
McCorkle -.5 u. at +130 on BetUS
Bongfeldt -.5 u. at +145 on BetUS
Pierson -.5 u. at +250 on Sportsbook
Makdessi – .5 u. at +120 on Sportsbook