Demian Maia vs. Rick Story
Most people are in agreement that Maia has the advantage in this fight. Story’s wrestling is his greatest attribute, but against Maia, he won’t be able to effectively use it. Maia is an expert at countering strong wrestlers with his Jiu-Jitsu as he’s demonstrated in his fights with Mark Munoz, Dan Miller, and most impressively, Chael Sonnen. Maia’s Jiu-Jitsu will be even more effective due to him having quite the size advantage over Story after dropping to welterweight. Maia looked outstanding in his welterweight debut, and his weight cut should be even easier now. If Maia has the same aggressive pace like he did against Dong Hyun Kim, then Maia will get Story down early and submit him in no time, but if Story is somehow able to take Maia down, Maia will have no problem sweeping him, or could just as easily secure a triangle. No matter how this fight plays out, Maia will outclass Story either on the feet or on the ground. Whether it’s over quick or goes into deep waters, Maia will sooner or later pull off a submission.
Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado
Davis had a bit more trouble against Prado in their first fight than expected. Although the fight didn’t last very long, Davis was clearly backpedaling and on the defensive until the accidental eye poke. After all the criticism of Davis’ performance, he’s probably put together a better game plan with his team. This time around, he won’t wait so long before going on the offensive and use his wrestling to put Prado in some compromising positions. Prado has nothing to lose and will once again come out fast and aggressive, looking to end this fight early, but if the Davis who beat Alexander Gustafsson, Tim Boetsch, and Antonio Nogueira shows up, he shouldn’t have a problem taking Prado down and beating him all three rounds. It’s possible that Davis could end the fight with a submission, but it’s more likely that it will go the distance.
Erick Silva vs. Jon Fitch
This is by far the hardest fight on the card to predict, I can see either one of these fighters emerging as the victor. There’s no question that if this fight ends early, Fitch will be the one on the losing end. Although his fight with Carlo Prater was ruled a disqualification loss, he has finished his last four opponents in the first round, three off them taking and average time of only forty five seconds. With that being said, Fitch could just as easily take Silva down and control him for all three rounds. Love or hate his grinding style, it’s extremely effective. Fitch has one heck of a chin that will help him get this fight into the later rounds where he could have an advantage, seeing most of Silva’s fights end rather quickly. I’m giving the edge to Fitch simply because Charlie Brenneman was able to get Silva down on more than one occasion in their fight, and Fitch is bigger, stronger, and a better wrestler than Brenneman. Silva is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, so I doubt that Fitch will be able to submit him, but I will pick him to win a decision.
Glover Teixeira vs. Fabio Maldonado
This may be a little premature, but I think Teixeira could challenge for the title with a couple more fights under his belt. Teixeira is a well-rounded fighter who isn’t afraid to let the fight go anywhere. Even though he’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who has competed in multiple Jiu-Jitsu tournaments, he has more wins by knockout than he does by submission. Maldonado is a former boxer with a perfect 22-0 record, with twenty one of those wins by knockout. There’s no question that is boxing is excellent, but as we’ve seen in his fight with Igor Pokrajac, he is vulnerable in the clinch, and easily susceptible to takedowns. This will give Teixeira a huge advantage as he looks to take Maldonado down and dominate him on the ground. Maldonado will be in defense mode as he desperately tries to avoid Teixeira’s ground and pound, it’ll only be a matter of time until Teixeira finds an opening and is able pull off a submission.
Antonio Nogueira vs. Dave Herman
This is a bad match up for Herman, the Jiu-Jitsu advantage clearly is in the favor of Nogueira, but it’s not too obscure to think that Nogueira also will have the striking advantage. People forget how good of a striker Nogueira is because he is such a decorated Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but his striking has gotten the better of Randy Couture, Brendan Schuab, and Frank Mir, before Mir was able to counter with a submission. Herman on the other hand has been out struck by Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve and John-Olav Einemo, until Einemo gassed and Herman was able to take over. I doubt he will look to stand with Herman, but if he can’t get the takedown, he will be more than capable of handling himself on the feet. Eventually, Nogueira should be able to get Herman to the ground and prove that Jiu-Jitsu isn’t “magic” by submitting him.
Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar
As much as I enjoy a real life Rocky story, I don’t see it happening. Bonnar does have the ability to hold Silva down and possibly submit him, but in order to do that, Bonnar needs to get Silva to the ground, and I don’t see him doing that. Silva is to fast and nimble on the feet to be susceptible to Bonnar’s takedowns. If Bonnar was on the same wrestling level as Chael Sonnen, than maybe he’d have a fighting chance, but unfortunately for him, he isn’t. Bonnar can certainly take massive amounts of punishment and still be in the fight, but Silva has knocked out plenty of fighters who have had a reputation of just that. It’s only a matter of time before Silva catches Bonnar and puts him away.
Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek