Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza
Garza may have excellent Jiu-jitsu, but his wrestling is amateur level, and his striking isn’t anything spectacular. Hominick won’t have any problem keeping this fight on the feet and picking Garza apart. Garza’s wrestling isn’t good enough for him to take Hominick down so his only chance for success is to close the distance and pull guard. Garza was able to submit Yves Jabouin, who is an excellent striker, but Hominick is much more knowledgeable in jiu-jitsu than Jabouin, so I don’t see him getting caught in one of Garza’s submission attempts. If Hominick isn’t able to eventually knock Garza out, he will take a unanimous decision victory.
Nick Ring vs. Costa Philippou
Philippou has really showcased his excellent boxing skills in his last several fights, which is even more effective due to his excellent takedown defense. Philippou was much more successful in his fights with Riki Fukuda and Court McGee than Ring was when he fought them. In fact, I thought Ring should’ve been on the loosing end of both those fights, but lucked out due to judging incompetence. Philippou will be able to avoid Ring’s takedown attempts and will clearly have the advantage in the striking. If James Head was able to drop Ring in their fight, I have full confidence that Philippou will hurt Ring and put him away. Ring may last the first round, but soon after Philippou will knock him out.
Francis Carmont vs. Tom Lawlor
I used to think that Carmont was an overrated fighter, but with each one of his victories in the octagon, he has gained more of my respect. Lawlor is a talented fighter who has excellent wrestling, but I highly doubt that Lawlor will be able to use his wrestling effectively against Carmont. If a powerful wrestler like Karlos Vemola was unable to use his wrestling against Carmont, then I certainly don’t see Lawlor being able to succeed with the same game plan. Now Lawlor does possess good boxing, but Carmont will easily outclass him on the feet with his superior striking and sizable reach advantage. Carmont should have no problem avoiding Lawlor’s takedown attempts and will even find himself in the top position on the ground. After softening his opponent up with punches, Carmont will look for his third consecutive rear-naked choke victory.
Martin Kampmann vs. Johnny Hendricks
This fight is pretty split in the predictions, which is understandable. Kampmann has the technical striking advantage, and quite possibly the jiu-jitsu advantage as well. However, Kampmann will not be able to successfully use his jiu-jitsu due to the expert wrestling of Hendricks. Kampmann has been susceptible to getting sucked into a dogfight rather than a technical striking battle, and when that happens it’s often bad news for him. Hendricks has the power advantage and has striking skills that are good enough to stand with Kampmann until he can set up the takedown. Seeing that Hendricks was able to stand with Josh Koscheck, I doubt Kampmann will be able to pick apart Hendricks so easily. Kampmann gets caught with a heavy strike in nearly every one of his fights and those are not good odds when fighting Hendricks, and I see Kampmann getting up close and personal with the heavy left hand. Kampmann has recovered well in the past, even when it seemed that he was going to get finished. Either way, if Hendricks doesn’t knock out Kampmann, his wrestling skills are more than enough to win him a unanimous decision.
Georges St-Pierre vs. Carlos Condit
As much as I’d like to see Condit pull off the win, I’m skeptical if he will be the fighter to dethrone the long-time welterweight champ. Condit truly is a complete fighter, but GSP has always given the best of the best problems with his wrestling alone. Condit is skilled off of his back, but if GSP avoided submissions from B.J. Penn while in his guard, I’ll have to think twice before thinking Condit will be able submit him off his back. Because Condit has a heavy kicking offense, GSP will look to grab a leg and take Condit down. If Condit chooses not to use any kicks, it will severely weaken his range and offense. It’s safe to assume that Condit his working day and night on his takedown defense, but I don’t think it will be enough. GSP won’t finish Condit seeing he never finishes any of his opponents anymore, but he should retain his belt by winning a close, but unanimous decision.
Written by : Ryan Poli
@FightFreek