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The UFC kicks off 2015 in style with an event headlined by a bout that is essentially the best the sport has to offer. UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones defends his title against two-time Olympian Daniel Cormier in what some view as the greatest threat to Jones’ title. In the co-main event, two lightweights battle for a chance to put together the sort of resume that merits a title shot.
Will Jones defeat Cormier and retain his title or is Cormier finally ready to claim a major combat sports title? I answer these questions and more with my predictions for Saturday’s fights.
When: Saturday, the two-fight Fight Pass card starts at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 main card starts at 8 p.m. and the five-fight pay-per-view card kicks off 10 p.m.
Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier
There’s a plausible case for either fighter here. Anyone who tells you either is out of there element is speaking in terms that have little application to the real world.
Jones can win any number of ways. He could pick apart Cormier from the outside with his reach. He could surprise us with deft wrestling of his own and mix it up against Cormier in the clinch and on top after the takedown to ride out a decision.
Cormier, too, has options. He could turn the tables, taking Jones down and pounding him out on top like he did against Josh Barnett in the middle rounds of their bout. The former Olympian could also employ deft use of hand combinations, lateral movement and thudding kicks to keep Jones offensively muted.
These are not wild possibilities. These are perfectly rational ways the fight could go down. That doesn’t necessarily mean the fight won’t ultimately lean heavily in either fighter’s favor, but at the outset, two fighters this capable should not be limited by caricature of their actual talents. Poor imagination by observers should not discount existing skill by real competitors.
I also detect among many Jones supporters or those favoring Jones to win (two distinct groups) a slight discounting of Cormier’s chances. It is true a review of the material gives Jones more ways to win than the inverse. However, Cormier’s growth and skill accumulation is not done despite his relatively advanced age. To think the Cormier that walks into the cage Saturday is the kind of Cormier one can basically surmise from tape of his previous fights is to delude one’s self.
That’s just it, though. One need not discount Cormier to fully appreciate Jones’ chances here. His commanding reach, unmatched creativity and fight IQ, ability to grow stronger as the fight progresses, wrestling for MMA prowess and unorthodox striking is too much to overlook. Cormier will have his moments here, but likely not enough of them to win.
Here’s the central question: do you believe Jury can a) pressure Cerrone, b) patiently counterstrike or c) use a bit of either forms of striking to land takedowns while riding out rounds in top control? I fundamentally do not. I do believe Jury’s timing with his hands will allow him some measure of sticking and moving at boxing range, but he’s going to get touched up too much from middle and low kicks from Cerrone to keep the attacks there static. From there, I see the train coming off the tracks. Cerrone’s takedown defense is massively improved and he’s a murdering in an open clinch. Perhaps I (and others) do not understand Jury fully. If he’s something more, he’ll have to show it here to win.
It’s hard to see what Tavares does that puts him over the top of Marquardt. Certainly he’s a credible talent. And yes, he’s well-rounded. But what does he do that really threatens in this fight? It’s not obvious. Marquardt has had his ups and downs, but has noted power, can apply savage ground and pound while passing among a variety of other offensive skills. I’m not saying the difference between them is either huge or insignificant, but there is enough daylight to lean towards the more capably offensive fighter.
Horiguchi lacks the sort of finesse required to beat the upper echelon of the division, but that’s not the task in front of him right now. At the moment, he has all the tools he could ever want. His power is remarkable, strength more than serviceable, pocket presence courageous, scrambling fantastic and finishing instincts near perfect. He’ll make mistakes in his UFC career. He might even make some in this fight, but this isn’t the sort of contest where he has to pay for them.
The issue for me is Burkman might be too accommodating of accepting Lombard’s style of fighting. Early on, we all know Lombard is a terror. Will Burkman fight defensively and patiently, hoping to drag the judoka into later rounds where he notoriously fades? I have my doubts. Burkman can be baited into a bite-down-on-the-mouthpiece-contest. Worse, as much as Lombard fades, he’s incredibly hard to hurt. I respect Burkman’s punching power and durability, but if it’s head-to-head vs. Lombard, you have to pick the Cuban-Australian.
The UFC kicks off 2015 in style with an event headlined by a bout that is essentially the best the sport has to offer. UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones defends his title against two-time Olympian Daniel Cormier in what some view as the greatest threat to Jones’ title. In the co-main event, two lightweights battle for a chance to put together the sort of resume that merits a title shot.
Will Jones defeat Cormier and retain his title or is Cormier finally ready to claim a major combat sports title? I answer these questions and more with my predictions for Saturday’s fights.
When: Saturday, the two-fight Fight Pass card starts at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 main card starts at 8 p.m. and the five-fight pay-per-view card kicks off 10 p.m.
Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier
There’s a plausible case for either fighter here. Anyone who tells you either is out of there element is speaking in terms that have little application to the real world.
Jones can win any number of ways. He could pick apart Cormier from the outside with his reach. He could surprise us with deft wrestling of his own and mix it up against Cormier in the clinch and on top after the takedown to ride out a decision.
Cormier, too, has options. He could turn the tables, taking Jones down and pounding him out on top like he did against Josh Barnett in the middle rounds of their bout. The former Olympian could also employ deft use of hand combinations, lateral movement and thudding kicks to keep Jones offensively muted.
These are not wild possibilities. These are perfectly rational ways the fight could go down. That doesn’t necessarily mean the fight won’t ultimately lean heavily in either fighter’s favor, but at the outset, two fighters this capable should not be limited by caricature of their actual talents. Poor imagination by observers should not discount existing skill by real competitors.
I also detect among many Jones supporters or those favoring Jones to win (two distinct groups) a slight discounting of Cormier’s chances. It is true a review of the material gives Jones more ways to win than the inverse. However, Cormier’s growth and skill accumulation is not done despite his relatively advanced age. To think the Cormier that walks into the cage Saturday is the kind of Cormier one can basically surmise from tape of his previous fights is to delude one’s self.
That’s just it, though. One need not discount Cormier to fully appreciate Jones’ chances here. His commanding reach, unmatched creativity and fight IQ, ability to grow stronger as the fight progresses, wrestling for MMA prowess and unorthodox striking is too much to overlook. Cormier will have his moments here, but likely not enough of them to win.
Here’s the central question: do you believe Jury can a) pressure Cerrone, b) patiently counterstrike or c) use a bit of either forms of striking to land takedowns while riding out rounds in top control? I fundamentally do not. I do believe Jury’s timing with his hands will allow him some measure of sticking and moving at boxing range, but he’s going to get touched up too much from middle and low kicks from Cerrone to keep the attacks there static. From there, I see the train coming off the tracks. Cerrone’s takedown defense is massively improved and he’s a murdering in an open clinch. Perhaps I (and others) do not understand Jury fully. If he’s something more, he’ll have to show it here to win.
It’s hard to see what Tavares does that puts him over the top of Marquardt. Certainly he’s a credible talent. And yes, he’s well-rounded. But what does he do that really threatens in this fight? It’s not obvious. Marquardt has had his ups and downs, but has noted power, can apply savage ground and pound while passing among a variety of other offensive skills. I’m not saying the difference between them is either huge or insignificant, but there is enough daylight to lean towards the more capably offensive fighter.
Horiguchi lacks the sort of finesse required to beat the upper echelon of the division, but that’s not the task in front of him right now. At the moment, he has all the tools he could ever want. His power is remarkable, strength more than serviceable, pocket presence courageous, scrambling fantastic and finishing instincts near perfect. He’ll make mistakes in his UFC career. He might even make some in this fight, but this isn’t the sort of contest where he has to pay for them.
The issue for me is Burkman might be too accommodating of accepting Lombard’s style of fighting. Early on, we all know Lombard is a terror. Will Burkman fight defensively and patiently, hoping to drag the judoka into later rounds where he notoriously fades? I have my doubts. Burkman can be baited into a bite-down-on-the-mouthpiece-contest. Worse, as much as Lombard fades, he’s incredibly hard to hurt. I respect Burkman’s punching power and durability, but if it’s head-to-head vs. Lombard, you have to pick the Cuban-Australian.
