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UFC 190 predictions
The UFC returns to Brazil, this time with arguably the crown jewel of stars. Ronda Rousey checks in to defend her bantamweight title against an outmatched Bethe Correia, but the Brazilian seems undeterred. The rest of the card features the finals to The Ultimate Fighter Brazil, plus a cast of notable Brazilian names.
When: Saturday, the two-fight Fight Pass card starts at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 main card starts at 8 p.m. and the seven-fight pay-per-view card kicks off 10 p.m.
Correia winning would literally be one of the biggest upsets in MMA history, which isn’t a reason to disqualify the Brazilian outright, but it certainly means casting a skeptical eye is perfectly warranted. For me, there’s any number of ways to parse this. Without belaboring the point, there’s a massive difference in athleticism. Rousey’s not just quick, but hugely explosive once she wraps the neck and head of her opposition. Maybe Correia can tag her on the entry to the clinch. Or maybe Rousey decides to exchange at range and gets clipped. I don’t think Rousey is outgunned in the striking department necessarily, but strange things happen in MMA. Short of that, though, Correia is going to get find herself going airborne. From there, she’ll lose a speed chess grappling contest on the mat where the far superior grappler in Rousey will finish off a totally overwhelmed Correia.
It’s sort of amazing to look at Rua and think that for a guy with this many miles on his body that he’s the fresher of the two, but that appears to be the circumstance to which we’ve arrived. Lil’ Nog just appears slower, more shop worn and limited. Rua was stopped by Dan Henderson, yes, but looked good enough up until the very end. With time off and working under Rafael Cordeiro, it’s truly hard to pick against him. I like Rua to work from the outside long enough to blitz the slower Nogueira en route to some sort of an early stoppage.
I’m going to go with size and strength (plus youth) beat age and wisdom here. Franca is a little bit rough around the edges in maintaining control positions, but he’s huge and physically dominant for the weight class. That’s usually not enough for me to side with someone, but it is here.
Lopes isn’t just the better of the two and more experienced, but technically more proficient, at least as it relates to matwork. I don’t expect any flying armbars, but over time, Lopes will control the fight after setting up offense from the clinch.
I really just don’t know here. The favorite is Struve and with plenty of reason. Nogueira has looked rather terrible recently. His calling card has been durability, but durability has turned into liability as the years of that style of fighting has ultimately proven unkind. The problem for me is not that Struve isn’t capable necessarily. It’s just that he doesn’t fight tall. I don’t know if Nogueira can do it, but it wouldn’t take much to put Struve on his back and work his still rather lethal jiu-jitsu from there. I can’t confess to having much faith in the Brazilian, but I guess that extends to the Dutch fighter, too.
The problem here is how Silva has looked recently. His career is far more distinguished. I was there when he bodied Fedor Emelianenko. But it just appears his ability to absorb damage is badly compromised. It also appears his reflexes have slowed dramatically. I do worry about Palelei’s ability to strike from distance or secure the takedown, but he also doesn’t have as many questions about his ability to get the lights shut out at a moment’s notice.
Aguilar is a tremendous talent, but without having more recently competed at this level, I have to retain a level of skepticism. I truly wonder about her ability to body Gadelha against the fence or resist the Brazilian’s pressure in the same place. I wonder about her ability to stop Gadelha’s guard passing or ground and pound or both. Long story short, I have a hard time viewing Aguilar’s chances favorably here without first proving it at the here and now. We’re not coasting on resumes here. Aguilar is a top-tier talent, but I remain unconvinced until I see her apply skills in this scenario.
The UFC returns to Brazil, this time with arguably the crown jewel of stars. Ronda Rousey checks in to defend her bantamweight title against an outmatched Bethe Correia, but the Brazilian seems undeterred. The rest of the card features the finals to The Ultimate Fighter Brazil, plus a cast of notable Brazilian names.
When: Saturday, the two-fight Fight Pass card starts at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 main card starts at 8 p.m. and the seven-fight pay-per-view card kicks off 10 p.m.
Correia winning would literally be one of the biggest upsets in MMA history, which isn’t a reason to disqualify the Brazilian outright, but it certainly means casting a skeptical eye is perfectly warranted. For me, there’s any number of ways to parse this. Without belaboring the point, there’s a massive difference in athleticism. Rousey’s not just quick, but hugely explosive once she wraps the neck and head of her opposition. Maybe Correia can tag her on the entry to the clinch. Or maybe Rousey decides to exchange at range and gets clipped. I don’t think Rousey is outgunned in the striking department necessarily, but strange things happen in MMA. Short of that, though, Correia is going to get find herself going airborne. From there, she’ll lose a speed chess grappling contest on the mat where the far superior grappler in Rousey will finish off a totally overwhelmed Correia.
It’s sort of amazing to look at Rua and think that for a guy with this many miles on his body that he’s the fresher of the two, but that appears to be the circumstance to which we’ve arrived. Lil’ Nog just appears slower, more shop worn and limited. Rua was stopped by Dan Henderson, yes, but looked good enough up until the very end. With time off and working under Rafael Cordeiro, it’s truly hard to pick against him. I like Rua to work from the outside long enough to blitz the slower Nogueira en route to some sort of an early stoppage.
I’m going to go with size and strength (plus youth) beat age and wisdom here. Franca is a little bit rough around the edges in maintaining control positions, but he’s huge and physically dominant for the weight class. That’s usually not enough for me to side with someone, but it is here.
Lopes isn’t just the better of the two and more experienced, but technically more proficient, at least as it relates to matwork. I don’t expect any flying armbars, but over time, Lopes will control the fight after setting up offense from the clinch.
I really just don’t know here. The favorite is Struve and with plenty of reason. Nogueira has looked rather terrible recently. His calling card has been durability, but durability has turned into liability as the years of that style of fighting has ultimately proven unkind. The problem for me is not that Struve isn’t capable necessarily. It’s just that he doesn’t fight tall. I don’t know if Nogueira can do it, but it wouldn’t take much to put Struve on his back and work his still rather lethal jiu-jitsu from there. I can’t confess to having much faith in the Brazilian, but I guess that extends to the Dutch fighter, too.
The problem here is how Silva has looked recently. His career is far more distinguished. I was there when he bodied Fedor Emelianenko. But it just appears his ability to absorb damage is badly compromised. It also appears his reflexes have slowed dramatically. I do worry about Palelei’s ability to strike from distance or secure the takedown, but he also doesn’t have as many questions about his ability to get the lights shut out at a moment’s notice.
Aguilar is a tremendous talent, but without having more recently competed at this level, I have to retain a level of skepticism. I truly wonder about her ability to body Gadelha against the fence or resist the Brazilian’s pressure in the same place. I wonder about her ability to stop Gadelha’s guard passing or ground and pound or both. Long story short, I have a hard time viewing Aguilar’s chances favorably here without first proving it at the here and now. We’re not coasting on resumes here. Aguilar is a top-tier talent, but I remain unconvinced until I see her apply skills in this scenario.
