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UFC 191 predictions
The UFC returns to pay-per-view, this time with a flyweight title fight. It’s a rematch, in fact, and one that likely represents the best current challenge to the reigning champion. The card also features a staple of notable heavyweights and light heavyweights as well as a rising women’s star, but is otherwise, a relatively uneventful card.
When: Saturday, the two-fight Fight Pass card starts at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 main card starts at 8 p.m. and the five-fight pay-per-view card kicks off 10 p.m.
I commentated Dodson’s fight against Pat Runez years ago. In that bout, Dodson and Runez fought tough early rounds before Dodson eventually dropped Runez with a crushing punch. Runez had to dutifully battle his way back into the fight. By the time it was over, it was Dodson who was looking to hang on. When I saw that pattern repeated against Johnson in their first contest, it basically occurred to me that unless something substantively changed, this was always going to be their dynamic. In fact, the distance between them would only grow. I believe that’s exactly the scenario in which we find ourselves today. Johnson can legitimately thump and is never out of any fight, not in this weight class or the next, but skill for skill, it’s hard to see how he can match Johnson. Since their first meeting, the champion has only gotten better, too. For a guy as athletic and insanely powerful as Dodson, it’s foolish to count him out, but I wouldn’t weigh that against Johnson’s overall MMA ability too heavily.
With two aging veterans – even with recent surges – you still never know when the bottom is going to drop out on either of them. That, though, can be tough to predict. What’s easier to parse is that Arlovski’s takedown defense is still pretty great and his striking is overall better than Mir’s. That means he’s more accurate, less prone to brawling (despite what you saw in the Travis Browne fight), a skilled finisher with his hands and proactive with the jab. Mir’s still a bit reliant on the over committed. Arlovski’s been that in the past, but I’m not sure that’s still his present.
Johnson’s a much better version of the first iteration we saw of him in his first run in the UFC, but he’s still basically the same. The only thing that’s changed is the margins. Noting that, I’m wondering if he might take this fight to the ground like he did in the Dan Hardy fight. When he feels he has a striking advantage – which is common – he likes to keep the fight standing. But should he need to make sure the odds are in his favor, he can use his offensive wrestling against other seasoned strikers. I suspect that’s what we’re going to find here.
Like Anthony Johnson, I’m betting this comes down to wrestling. I don’t think much of either’s striking, but I am fairly convinced Blachowicz’s best chance of offense comes in the form of ground and pound or top passing or a combo of both. Anderson should be able to make sure that never happens. On the feet, it’s not like the American is hugely better, but he should be frustrating and carry a strike-first approach. That should basically be enough.
I won’t call this a set-up fight for PVZ, but it’s a very winnable bout and one that should a) underscore what a real talent she is while b) giving her more reps to prepare her for that part of the division from where there is no real return. I suspect we’ll get trademark pressure from the American, driving Chambers into the fence, securing a takedown and from there, either Donkey Kong-esque strikes from the top or a move to the back to close the show with an aggressive strangulation. Either way, I believe Chambers is in a fair bit of trouble here, which is saying something given how incredibly tough and skilled she is.
The UFC returns to pay-per-view, this time with a flyweight title fight. It’s a rematch, in fact, and one that likely represents the best current challenge to the reigning champion. The card also features a staple of notable heavyweights and light heavyweights as well as a rising women’s star, but is otherwise, a relatively uneventful card.
When: Saturday, the two-fight Fight Pass card starts at 7 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 main card starts at 8 p.m. and the five-fight pay-per-view card kicks off 10 p.m.
I commentated Dodson’s fight against Pat Runez years ago. In that bout, Dodson and Runez fought tough early rounds before Dodson eventually dropped Runez with a crushing punch. Runez had to dutifully battle his way back into the fight. By the time it was over, it was Dodson who was looking to hang on. When I saw that pattern repeated against Johnson in their first contest, it basically occurred to me that unless something substantively changed, this was always going to be their dynamic. In fact, the distance between them would only grow. I believe that’s exactly the scenario in which we find ourselves today. Johnson can legitimately thump and is never out of any fight, not in this weight class or the next, but skill for skill, it’s hard to see how he can match Johnson. Since their first meeting, the champion has only gotten better, too. For a guy as athletic and insanely powerful as Dodson, it’s foolish to count him out, but I wouldn’t weigh that against Johnson’s overall MMA ability too heavily.
With two aging veterans – even with recent surges – you still never know when the bottom is going to drop out on either of them. That, though, can be tough to predict. What’s easier to parse is that Arlovski’s takedown defense is still pretty great and his striking is overall better than Mir’s. That means he’s more accurate, less prone to brawling (despite what you saw in the Travis Browne fight), a skilled finisher with his hands and proactive with the jab. Mir’s still a bit reliant on the over committed. Arlovski’s been that in the past, but I’m not sure that’s still his present.
Johnson’s a much better version of the first iteration we saw of him in his first run in the UFC, but he’s still basically the same. The only thing that’s changed is the margins. Noting that, I’m wondering if he might take this fight to the ground like he did in the Dan Hardy fight. When he feels he has a striking advantage – which is common – he likes to keep the fight standing. But should he need to make sure the odds are in his favor, he can use his offensive wrestling against other seasoned strikers. I suspect that’s what we’re going to find here.
Like Anthony Johnson, I’m betting this comes down to wrestling. I don’t think much of either’s striking, but I am fairly convinced Blachowicz’s best chance of offense comes in the form of ground and pound or top passing or a combo of both. Anderson should be able to make sure that never happens. On the feet, it’s not like the American is hugely better, but he should be frustrating and carry a strike-first approach. That should basically be enough.
I won’t call this a set-up fight for PVZ, but it’s a very winnable bout and one that should a) underscore what a real talent she is while b) giving her more reps to prepare her for that part of the division from where there is no real return. I suspect we’ll get trademark pressure from the American, driving Chambers into the fence, securing a takedown and from there, either Donkey Kong-esque strikes from the top or a move to the back to close the show with an aggressive strangulation. Either way, I believe Chambers is in a fair bit of trouble here, which is saying something given how incredibly tough and skilled she is.
