The three things you need to know about TUF prospect Corey Anderson versus TUF prospect turned UFC gatekeeper, Tom Lawlor at UFC 196 in Vegas.
A pair of light heavyweights, one prospect, one former(ish) prospect, do battle this March 5, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Match Up
Light heavyweight Corey Anderson 7-1 vs. Tom Lawlor 10-5-1 NC
The Odds
Light heavyweight Corey Anderson -290 vs. Tom Lawlor +245
3 Things You Should Know
1. Anderson is a lot better than what he showed on TUF.
TUF is rarely a good frame of reference. The fighters rarely fight in their natural weight class, they don’t get to properly train, and they’re mentally less sharp. I can’t think if a single fighter that ever looked worse in the UFC than on TUF. So I’ve been pleased to see Anderson look like the fighter advertised as opposed to the one who stumbled around with Kelly Anundson. He’s coming off a win over Fabio Maldonado, and will have a tough time with Lawlor, but he’s projecting upwardly. He’ll need to.
2. Lawlor is easily one of the more versatile, and effective overachievers TUF has ever produced.
Lawlor is turning into a LHW version of Mike Pyle: underestimate him at your own peril. He’s on a two fight winning streak that includes a massive, massive knockout over a massive human in Gian Villante. Lawlor has plateaued as a fighter, but his IQ, and how he has blended with IQ with experience has not. Sometimes that can be enough when you’re effective everywhere else and happen to be taking on a raw fighter.
3. Lawlor is savvy enough win a round. Don’t be surprised if Anderson’s complete dominance on paper ends up not quite enough.
Anderson is a pressure fighter through and through. Unlike a lot of young pressure fighters (think Thomas Almeida), he doesn’t get carried away on the feet when the momentum is swinging in his favor. He just keeps a high workrate, leaning in with a strong, lean right hand that never overstays its welecome.
It helps that he’s got experience training under Mark Henry. I interviewed Mark Henry after the Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard bouts, and I really enjoyed picking his brain. He has a real mind for how to coach boxing within the MMA umbrella, and he’s not afraid to give raw, technical advice to his fighters in the middle of a bout. The opposite of Edmund, basically. So I’m confidant that judging by Anderson’s amateur fights, and looking at his subsequent development, that he’ll continue progressing.
It helps that he already has the physical advantage. While Anderson has a strong wrestling background, he’ll play the boxing game for as long as he’s comfortable. Lawlor’s issue is that he doesn’t cut into the pocket the way he needs to, and so he ends up throwing less than what we should. In the vacuum, he throws short, tight strikes that are quick and accurate. But he needs to close distance, otherwise he’s letting the opponent close distance on their own, which means he’s not dictating the pace. That knockout of Villante was nice and all, but Lawlor wasn’t looking great until it happened.
Anderson can be spotty in the defensive wrestling department, but he’s getting a lot better at shoring up flaws in his game.
Prediction
Lawlor needs an opponent who is good that happens to be reckless in order to look like the overachiever he clearly is. Without, he’ll look like the gatekeeper he also is. Anderson may have trouble in the 3rd, or the 1st, but not both. Anderson is efficient in all the areas Lawlor would be too if he had more talent and size. Corey Anderson by TKO, round 3.