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UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux staff picks and predictions
Check out who the Bloody Elbow staff is predicting to win on tomorrow’s UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux pay-per-view event in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Bloody Elbow staff predictions are in for UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux, and only Jed Meshew is picking Ovince Saint Preux to upset Jon Jones. While he’s adventurous to pick OSP, nobody is going with Henry Cejudo to upset Demetrious Johnson in the co-main event. Only Nick Baldwin is going for Edson Barboza over Anthony Pettis, Artem Safarov and Fraser Coffeen like Rafael Natal over Robert Whittaker, and Nick, Phil Mackenzie, and Tim Burke see Andre Fili defeating Yair Rodriguez.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Note 2: He’s been around for a few weeks, but everyone welcome Jed Meshew to the Bloody Elbow staff!
Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Mookie Alexander: OSP has a chance if only for his KO power and all of the personal distractions coming back to haunt Jones mentally (and I’m really reaching here). Everything else points to pure domination from a stylistic matchup. OSP is a very good fighter who is also nowhere near Jones’ zip code. Jon Jones by rear-naked choke, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: So, it really came down to this, huh? OSP is another one of those cats that came over from Strikeforce and just figured would flunk out. Freak athlete, but too raw and with no finesse, too reliant on physicality and athleticism. He’s been getting really, really good, though. Scary good. He has stellar knockout power but doesn’t set up his shots with combinations often, has no kicking game, and his defensive wrestling isn’t very good. He muscles his way out of submissions and is limited on the ground. Now he has to take on the man that is almost unanimously praised as being the greatest of all time? No pressure. Realistically, OSP could land a crazy shot and put Jones to sleep, but even then his cardio is suspect. I love Ovince to death, but smart money stays on hungry, motivated and pissed powerlifting Jones. You and I both know that he can’t lose this. Jon Jones by submission.
Tim Bissell: I can’t pick against the most creative fighter the sport has ever seen. Jon Jones by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: If Jon Jones decides he doesn’t want to just wrestle OSP through the mat, then it’ll probably take him a bit longer to win and be a bit more fun to watch. Jon Jones via TKO, Round 2.
Nick Baldwin: So, Ovince Saint Preux is getting that title shot we all imagined he would at one point. He has two recent losses on his record though, which were very eye-opening. Jones should be able to get OSP to the mat and choke him out in the opening rounds. Hopefully, he chooses to stand to make it more exciting, but as far as a result goes, nothing changes. Jones can knock Saint Preux, Jones can submit Saint Preux, Jones can decision Saint Preux. Even if the ghost of Jon Jones is the one we see on Saturday, he should still win easily. OSP’s only hope is… bring on them 12-6 elbows! Jon Jones via Submission; Round 2
Fraser Coffeen: Really, the only way this is not a Jones domination is if the former champ has somehow gone completely off the rails in the last year. And everything indicates he has not. I’m not 100% sure he’s still the #1 P4P in the world, but he’s certainly still much better than OSP. Jon Jones via KO, round 2
Mookie Alexander: Let’s say Cejudo takes Demetrious down. Then what? Does he win the majority of the scrambles? Can he avoid getting swept? Can he hold Demetrious for a prolonged period of time and win with top control? I just can’t see that happening at this stage in their respective career. Mighty Mouse is just too multi-faceted for everyone at 125. Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision.
Victor: I’m always fascinated by guys with crazy accolades like NCAA championships or FIAS (Sambo) champions. So when we get an Olympian, I immediately am drawn to see how they transition to MMA. Cejudo is neither a Rousey nor McMann story, and has had a more than bumpy road to get to the UFC. Since arriving, he’s cleaned up a lot of the problems and distractions that some were concerned about while looking really good for a guy that hasn’t been training striking very long. Phenomenal athlete, looks smart in his fights, but taking on a guy that is worlds ahead in terms of overall technique and outstanding fighting instinct. Demetrious Johnson by submission, Round 4
Tim Bissell: I think Cejudo takes DJ down, but doesn’t keep him down, and that in the long-run the Olympian eats too much damage coming in and out of the champion’s range. Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Between the amount of time that it will take Cejudo to catch up to Demetrious Johnson and the later rounds where DJ’s superior cardio, toolset, and adaptability take over, I could see Cejudo being competitive in the second and maybe third rounds. Demetrious Johnson via UD.
Nick Baldwin: I don’t see Cejudo being a test for Mighty Mouse. Johnson is too strong, too fast and has an insane cardio level compared to the Olympic gold medalist. Cejudo could make it close early but he doesn’t have a finish win in his four UFC outings. If he can’t finish Dustin Kimura, he sure can’t finish arguably the greatest fighter on planet Earth. Cejudo needs to grind this one out, but I would be surprised if he can even land a single takedown, despite his credentials in the wrestling department. I think Johnson picks him apart on the feet, maybe even takes him down, for a decision win or a late submission. Demetrious Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Mookie Alexander: I can absolutely see Barboza getting the upset here. Pettis will get his space to work his striking vs. Barboza, but how often have we ever seen Anthony fight a pure striker? I guess Cerrone, but Cowboy’s style isn’t all that comparable to Edson’s. Barboza seems to be reacting better to absorbing strikes, his offense is lethal, and Pettis hasn’t often dealt with guys as creative as Barboza. That said, Pettis can also completely own Barboza on the mat, which is where I feel the fight will be taken in order to avoid the risk of getting chin-checked. It’s going to be a fun one, that’s for sure. Anthony Pettis by submission, round 2.
Victor: Ah. A battle between two of the most inconsistent yet spectacularly exciting fighters of our time. And while Pettis reached the mountaintop, Barboza seems stuck between second and third gear. Usually I favor guys with Muay Thai-oriented striking over Karate/Taekwondo guys, but Pettis’ movement and his blending of boxing, kickboxing, Taekwondo and criminally long amounts of Marvel vs Capcom gameplay will be an advantage. That and the fact that Barboza can be a painfully slow starter that often has problems defending shots down the middle (exploited masterfully by Cerrone). Barboza’s not taking Pretty Tony down, so his best bet is to work pressure striking up close, because the only guys that succeed against Pettis are guys that don’t let him use his range. Guida, Alvarez and RDA gave him no breathing room, flustered his timing and kept him contained, and Barboza does none of those things to that degree. Pettis superstyles on Edson in a majority of the exchanges for a thrilling bout that ends in a decision. Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision.
Tim Bissell: This is a fight designed to get Pettis back to relevancy. If Barboza wants to grind out a win, and he’s studied Pettis’ last two fights, I’m sure he could stifle Showtime, but I expect Barboza believes he can do that fighting his own style. If both fighters give each other space to tee off on one another, I favour Pettis to hurt Barboza and follow up with a choke. Anthony Pettis by submission (d’arce choke), round 3.
Phil Mackenzie: Lost in the excitement about this fight is the fact that the loser will be 1-3 in their last 4, but there is any justice… ANY justice at all in this cold, bleak world, Edson Barboza will win. These two were both flawed, dangerous fighters back when Pettis joined the UFC, but Showtime’s flaws were much, much less pronounced. The damning thing is that Barboza has clawed and eked and scraped his way to being a far better fighter than he was, and has actively addressed his struggles with the pocket and getting backed into the cage… and Pettis is still pretty much the same goddamn guy he was back then, and the fight is still unfairly difficult to call. Why should Pettis win? Why does he deserve to win? Just because he can punch a bit straighter? Because he has a better chin? I’m going to pick Pettis, solely because I’m going to be so furious if he wins that I at least want to be consoled by having made the right pick. Anthony Pettis by something.
Zane Simon: Two guys that will probably get the fight they want, and while Edson Barboza is one of the most exciting and consistent range strikers in the business, Anthony Pettis is a better finisher and a tougher out… and every bit as creative. Anthony Pettis via KO, Round 3.
Nick Baldwin: Hey, at least Pettis won’t get grinded out for the third time in a row. Stylistically, this a dream matchup for the former champion. But I’m still going with Edson Barboza — once a lesser version of Showtime. Not anymore, though. Pettis’ beating to Rafael dos Anjos changed him for the rest of his career. I don’t think Pettis will be as quick, as accurate, as powerful as he was when he reigned the UFC lightweight division. I see this being a competitive affair over the course of 15 minutes, but I actually think the Brazilian does enough on the feet to take home a win. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision
Staff picking Barboza: Nick Staff picking Pettis: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Rafael Natal vs. Robert Whittaker
Mookie Alexander: I’m really high — not that way, you idiots — on Robert Whittaker has a future title contender at 185. Natal has worked on his game considerably, but he’s still got a wayward gas tank and Whittaker is the better athlete with faster, more powerful hands. Robert Whittaker via TKO, round 2.
Victor: Fantastic matchmaking here. A juicy bout that serves as a litmus test but should also cause both fighters to elevate their respective games. Sapo’s been falling behind, though. While he’s not likely to have the same defensive lapses that he had against tim Kennedy, Whittaker is intense. His last two fights have been crazy displays of maturity, focus and great movement with excellent choices in terms of when and where to attack. Natal will have a hard time taking this to the ground, and he’s not very fast while upright, either. Robert Whittaker, Round 2 TKO.
Tim Bissell: I’m picking Whittaker, but that betting line is incredible for a sport as crazy as MMA. I think Whittaker does to Natal what he did to Hall and earns a decision, but any middleweight at 3-1 odds is worth a sprinkle. Robert Whittaker by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Like Gleison Tibau at lightweight, Natal has somewhat perfected a style which revolves around landing just enough strikes and having just enough top control time to win decisions while exactly apportioning out his limited gas tank. Like Tibau, his problems are in opponents who can blow through that structure with sheer offensive capability and pace. That’s Whittaker, who is very violent and very fast paced. The only thing keeping me from proclaiming this a bit of a lock is the fact that Natal is a more effective wrestler than anyone Whittaker has faced in his career. By, like, a lot. Still, Robert Whittaker by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Whittaker is faster, harder to take down, more powerful, and more consistent in his output throughout the fight. Natal is tough and diverse enough to outwork other generic MW talents, but Whittaker isn’t that. Robert Whittaker via TKO, round 1.
Nick Baldwin: Welp. I’m disappointed by Phil’s breakdown. Too … sad … to … finish … mine. Robert Whittaker via TKO; Round 1
Fraser Coffeen: You guys are all nuts. This has boring Natal grind-fest written all over it. Rafael Natal, split decision
Mookie Alexander: I like Fili’s fights, but he’s not been particularly consistent and Rodriguez has the higher upside to me. That’s not to say Fili can’t get the win, because Rodriguez is also a prospect and he can get a bit wild. Ultimately I think Rodriguez’s more diverse and unpredictable offensive attacks keep Fili flustered and flummoxed. Yair Rodriguez by unanimous decision.
Victor: I have a feeling that two years from now, a rematch between these two could easily headline an FS1/Fight Pass card. Two of the most exciting young talents going head to head, and it’s almost guaranteed to be fun. Fili’s got a crisp striking game as well as the patented Alpha Male top game, but Rodriguez (no relation) has a more unorthodox array of attacks to keep anyone on their toes, plus the fact that he hits very, very hard. Yair Rodriguez by decision.
Zane Simon: Fili is a very very live dog in this fight. He’s a better athlete than Yair’s last opponent and way better striker than Charles Rosa. He’s a more technically developed fighter than Yair as well. But, Yair seems to know what his strengths are and stick to them and he is a phenom athlete in a way that I don’t think Fili can match. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fili finished strong on his way to a loss. Yair Rodriguez via decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Rodriquez is the better athlete, but I’m just not really in love with his game. He has athletically turbocharged the old “kicks’n’submissions” build which we’ve seen max itself out multiple times in the lower to middle end of the UFC (with the exception of Pretty Tony). More than his technical or athletic gifts, what has impressed me has been how cool-headed he is, and this is his biggest advantage over Fili. However, I still just don’t believe in kicks’n’subs games, particularly those which have never really been tested by decent wrestlers or boxers, and Fili can do both those things as well as being able to compete in the kicking and scrambling phases. Andre Fili by unanimous decision
Nick Baldwin: I’m not riding the Rodriguez hype train as much as most people. Will he be a contender in the future? Possibly, but I don’t think it’s his time, quite yet. Fili is more experienced and I just can’t trust a wild fighter like Rodriguez (unless your name is Tony Ferguson). Don’t forget to eat one for Fili when he wins, people. Andre Fili via Unanimous Decision
Staff picking Fili: Nick, Phil, Tim Staff picking Rodriguez: Artem, Tim Bis, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Chris Kelades vs. Sergio Pettis
Victor: I don’t check the odds for these, but if Kelades is the underdog (and that’s highly likely given Pettis’ name value and promise he’s shown) I’d bet the dog’s heart medication money on him. He’s primarily a grappler, should be able to exploit the same deficiencies in Sergio’s game that his brother has and neutralize the distance game while sticking to him like flypaper. Kelades has crazy backtakes and is clever in scramble situations. That and the fact that Sergio is still somewhat unreliable to me. Long live upsets. Chris Kelades by decision.
Tim Bissell: Pettis was sensational in his last performance. However, I’m unconvinced that the version of Chris Cariaso he faced is worthy of the reactions most will have to seeing that name on the young man’s record. I think Pettis may hurt Kelades in the first, but then struggle for answers after the Canadian survives those early blitzes. I’m predicting that Kelades elkins Pettis throughout the second and third round on route to an ugly – possibly controversial – win. Chris Kelades by split decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Sergio Pettis is less athletic than his brother, but in many ways that’s forced him to conform to a better archetype. Offensive phase shifting, and more conventional boxing and volume striking layered with kicks rather than based around them. Some people say his problems are mental, but mostly I think they’re physical: he’s a weight class ‘tweener, and makes for a stocky distance fighter at 135, and is visibly drained and less durable at 125. As someone who’s ping-ponged back and forth between classes, he’s been forced to make some sometimes-disastrous adjustments to changing timing and speed between the two, and while Kelades is very strong and tough, he’s not quick at all. The biggest issue for me is how prone Sergio is to dropping the third round, sometimes very badly. Sergio Pettis by unanimous decision
Zane Simon: I realize that Pettis is less impressive than people want him to be and that Kelades has been more impressive than people thought he would be, but stylistically this is kind of a nightmare for Kelades. He’s not a power striker and at range he’s a very poor one. When he sits down on his boxing in the pocket, it’s okay… Not great, but okay. Pettis has a habit of getting dropped, but the only person to actually KO him was Ryan Benoit who is nothing if not a power puncher. Otherwise Kelades doesn’t have a great takedown game, relying more on his opponents to put themselves (or try to put him) on the mat. Sergio has been willing to pull guard or keep it before, but his grappling is a place where his athletic advantages may come into better play. Essentially, I just can’t see Kelades grinding Pettis against the cage or holding him on his back long enough to get a win. Sergio Pettis via decision.
Nick Baldwin: This is probably going to be a grinding affair either way, but I like little Pettis to get the job done. Chances are I’ll be wrong in one of the Pettis fights, because they usually either both win on the same card or both lose. I think Pettis’ ceiling is way higher than Kelades’. Pettis will pick him apart at the beginning and end up on top throughout the fight multiple times, en route to a decision or late finish. Sorry Canada. Sergio Pettis via Unanimous Decision
Phil Mackenzie: This fight should be very fun. Steele is cast in the same approximate mould as early career Ben Henderson: a die-by-the-sword type of wrestler, eschewing safe top control for phase-shift violence. Unfortunately for him, that may not serve him well against Roberts, who is just a much more dangerous finishing threat in virtually every phase (the Pettis to his Henderson, if you will). The caveat is that Roberts’ wrestling did not look massively improved against Coy, and that picking up subs is not generally a high-percentage way to victory. On balance though, I think there’s a very solid chance that Steele just gets melted in one of the first exchanges. Danny Roberts by TKO, round 1.
Tim Bissell: You gotta respect any guy with a KO via slam, and a loss to Zak Cummings is made far more palatable given what we saw in Zagreb, but ultimately I fancy Danny Roberts’ quick-twitch arsenal to get a finish over Jordan Peele– I mean Dominique Steele. Danny Roberts by TKO (punches), round 2.
Zane Simon: Steele is slow and very very hittable. Roberts is fast and has really pretty great boxing. Danny Roberts via TKO, Round 1.
Nick Baldwin: I’m super, super high on Roberts and I like him a lot here. Steele just isn’t very good — as Zane noted above, he’s slow and hittable. He’s also been knocked out a handful of times too, outside of the UFC. The more KO losses on your record, the easier it is to get KO’d the next time out. Roberts is quick and likes to knock people out. This is almost too easy. Danny Roberts via TKO; Round 1
Victor: I’ve had a soft spot for Esparza since her Bellator bout against Aguilar, and her wrestling-heavy style is one that I understand a lot of people appreciate, but she’s very smart about it when it goes her way. Taking on another Muay Thai-based striker after the devastating loss to Joanna Champion may sound counterintuitive, but it works in this case because Lima’s output isn’t the same, nor is her precision or tenacity. Lima can play the counter game very well and be smart about her shot selection, but Carla can use her lower base to take it where she wants it to go and work from there. Carla Esparza by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The much-anticipated return… the anticipated return… OK, just the the return of Juliana Lima: Chick Kongo. Nominally a kickboxer, she doesn’t really kick or box very much, preferring instead to grind in the clinch. She’ll probably win every second of this fight that’s on the feet and not in the clinch, but seeing as that’s probably going to be a grand total of about 15 seconds given who these two fighters are, I think I like the better and more consistent wrestler. Carla Esparza by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Juliana Lima may be a competitive wrestler against Esparza both offensively and defensively, but she’s not competitive when it comes to offensive production. If Lima’s best chance is to stay defensive and to grind Esparza from top control, I don’t see any clear path to a win for her. Carla Esparza via decision.
Nick Baldwin: Let’s see how Esparza rebounds from a possibly career-changing loss to Joanna Champion. That’s the only thing going for Lima. Esparza could look terrible, and Lima could simply take advantage of that. I don’t expect Esparza to be at her best, but I think we see more than a ghost of her. So I’ll pick her. Carla Esparza via Unanimous Decision
Phil Mackenzie: Sometimes I feel like Sean Shelby has absolutely no idea who James Vick is. Do you have a potentially interesting prospect from a non-American market, who has either an interesting personality or natural physical gifts? Hey, I know, why not totally stall their momentum by putting them against a gigantic, brutally tough, awkward, high-pace fighter like Vick; a fight where they are virtually guaranteed to look like crap. Franca is a physical specimen and of course he might be able to just lamp the Texan, who is a little over-reliant on his durability, but… stop booking James Vick like this. James Vick by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Franca is yet another good young fighter who is going to find himself likely losing to a guy he just can’t seem to hurt and can’t out work. Vick isn’t a technical wunderkind, but he’s big and tough and is a very crafty in fighter and grappler. Franca probably hurts him a bit standing and then tries to take him down and gets subbed. James Vick by submission, Round 1.
Nick Baldwin: TUF winners haven’t been doing so well lately. James Vick is a legit prospect. So, James Vick via Submission; Round 1.
Staff picking Franca: Tim Staff picking Vick: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Cody East vs. Walt Harris
Phil Mackenzie: This seems like an underrated trap fight for East. Walt Harris has a dismal UFC record, but he’s a sharp striker for heavyweight with a nice left kick to the body. His losses have come to power grapplers and to a weird headkick from Krylov tha Gawd. This is perhaps the first outing for him where we’ll see him get “his” fight. I still think East wins- he sets and keeps a much higher pace, but his tendency to leave his head bolt upright is concerning, and gaudy regional HW records often aren’t worth the blubber they’re printed on. Cody East by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Harris just doesn’t seem to be tough enough to be a UFC heavyweight and East puts a serious pace on guys. Cody East via KO, Round 1.
Nick Baldwin: Dana White: Lookin’ For A Brawler Who Loses His/Her Second Fight in the UFC. Sounds a bit more accurate. East is another guy from Dana White’s new YouTube show (why it’s not exclusively on Fight Pass boggles my mind) but I actually think he’ll snap the Lookin’ For A Fight curse here. Walt Harris is bigger but he’ll still probably get KO’d. Cody East via Knockout; Round 1
Zane Simon: Neither of these guys is the toughest or highest fight IQ guy in MMA. Both have a habit of outworking their own cardio and of jumping on opportunities that end up putting them in worse positions than they were in. Still, Pezao has generally proven to have a tougher chin over his career and he’s bigger and stronger and ridiculously hard hitter. That’s too much for me to trust Hester’s speed and athleticism in his first jaunt into the 205 lb division. Pezao via KO, Round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: I’ve historically overrated Hester, but I feel like I have to give him one last shot. Partially this is because I feel that he’s almost the archetype of the fighter who really should move up a division: a huge middleweight who struggled with cardio and being just that fraction too slow more than he did getting muscled around. Clint Hester by TKO, round 2.
Nick Baldwin: Dana White appears to like brawls (see East-Harris breakdown) and that’s what he’s going to get here. Lima and Hester will go out there and swing for the fences until one gets the knockout or they A) knock each other out B) gas or C) fail to hit each other and go to a terrible, terrible decision. Lima looked a tad smaller so I’ll go Hester. Clint Hester via Knockout; Round 1
Mookie Alexander: Rough loss for Lee in his last fight, but I think he’s good enough to take Escudero apart here. Kevin Lee by unanimous decision.
Victor: John Crouch has done some great work with Escudero and getting him back to the UFC under his tutelage, but Kevin Lee had a very hot hand prior to his last fight where he got finished via strikes. Lee’s still more dynamic as an athlete and can push a pace that Escudero may not be able to handle. Kevin Lee by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Escudero has been a pleasant if muted surprise in his time returned to the UFC. Nothing major, nothing spectacular but he’s a solid and gritty presence. Kevin Lee’s KO loss to Leonardo Santos showed just how reliant his striking is on mixing in his wrestling, but short of a miracle guillotine he should have no issues implementing his grappling on Escudero in a fight which may start off competitive, but will become progressively less so over time. Escudero has historically been crazy durable, so Kevin Lee by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Man, I want Lee to win this, but there’s no reason that he should be a huge favorite or a unanimous pick. Escudero is durable and a solid veteran with a pretty complete game in a way that Lee isn’t. Given Lee’s propensity for fighting in straight lines with his head on line and chin up, I think he gives Escudero too many opportunities to create offense. And while Escudero isn’t any kind of power KO threat, neither was Leonardo Santos. I think this will be an ugly decision, with Escudero doing just enough to take it. Efrain Escudero via split decision.
Nick Baldwin: Kevin Lee suffered a KO loss in his last outing but he’s going to rebound successfully here. He’s probably better than Escudero everywhere, and I think he gets the finish. Kevin Lee via Submission; Round 2
Check out who the Bloody Elbow staff is predicting to win on tomorrow’s UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux pay-per-view event in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Bloody Elbow staff predictions are in for UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux, and only Jed Meshew is picking Ovince Saint Preux to upset Jon Jones. While he’s adventurous to pick OSP, nobody is going with Henry Cejudo to upset Demetrious Johnson in the co-main event. Only Nick Baldwin is going for Edson Barboza over Anthony Pettis, Artem Safarov and Fraser Coffeen like Rafael Natal over Robert Whittaker, and Nick, Phil Mackenzie, and Tim Burke see Andre Fili defeating Yair Rodriguez.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Note 2: He’s been around for a few weeks, but everyone welcome Jed Meshew to the Bloody Elbow staff!
Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Mookie Alexander: OSP has a chance if only for his KO power and all of the personal distractions coming back to haunt Jones mentally (and I’m really reaching here). Everything else points to pure domination from a stylistic matchup. OSP is a very good fighter who is also nowhere near Jones’ zip code. Jon Jones by rear-naked choke, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: So, it really came down to this, huh? OSP is another one of those cats that came over from Strikeforce and just figured would flunk out. Freak athlete, but too raw and with no finesse, too reliant on physicality and athleticism. He’s been getting really, really good, though. Scary good. He has stellar knockout power but doesn’t set up his shots with combinations often, has no kicking game, and his defensive wrestling isn’t very good. He muscles his way out of submissions and is limited on the ground. Now he has to take on the man that is almost unanimously praised as being the greatest of all time? No pressure. Realistically, OSP could land a crazy shot and put Jones to sleep, but even then his cardio is suspect. I love Ovince to death, but smart money stays on hungry, motivated and pissed powerlifting Jones. You and I both know that he can’t lose this. Jon Jones by submission.
Tim Bissell: I can’t pick against the most creative fighter the sport has ever seen. Jon Jones by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: If Jon Jones decides he doesn’t want to just wrestle OSP through the mat, then it’ll probably take him a bit longer to win and be a bit more fun to watch. Jon Jones via TKO, Round 2.
Nick Baldwin: So, Ovince Saint Preux is getting that title shot we all imagined he would at one point. He has two recent losses on his record though, which were very eye-opening. Jones should be able to get OSP to the mat and choke him out in the opening rounds. Hopefully, he chooses to stand to make it more exciting, but as far as a result goes, nothing changes. Jones can knock Saint Preux, Jones can submit Saint Preux, Jones can decision Saint Preux. Even if the ghost of Jon Jones is the one we see on Saturday, he should still win easily. OSP’s only hope is… bring on them 12-6 elbows! Jon Jones via Submission; Round 2
Fraser Coffeen: Really, the only way this is not a Jones domination is if the former champ has somehow gone completely off the rails in the last year. And everything indicates he has not. I’m not 100% sure he’s still the #1 P4P in the world, but he’s certainly still much better than OSP. Jon Jones via KO, round 2
Mookie Alexander: Let’s say Cejudo takes Demetrious down. Then what? Does he win the majority of the scrambles? Can he avoid getting swept? Can he hold Demetrious for a prolonged period of time and win with top control? I just can’t see that happening at this stage in their respective career. Mighty Mouse is just too multi-faceted for everyone at 125. Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision.
Victor: I’m always fascinated by guys with crazy accolades like NCAA championships or FIAS (Sambo) champions. So when we get an Olympian, I immediately am drawn to see how they transition to MMA. Cejudo is neither a Rousey nor McMann story, and has had a more than bumpy road to get to the UFC. Since arriving, he’s cleaned up a lot of the problems and distractions that some were concerned about while looking really good for a guy that hasn’t been training striking very long. Phenomenal athlete, looks smart in his fights, but taking on a guy that is worlds ahead in terms of overall technique and outstanding fighting instinct. Demetrious Johnson by submission, Round 4
Tim Bissell: I think Cejudo takes DJ down, but doesn’t keep him down, and that in the long-run the Olympian eats too much damage coming in and out of the champion’s range. Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Between the amount of time that it will take Cejudo to catch up to Demetrious Johnson and the later rounds where DJ’s superior cardio, toolset, and adaptability take over, I could see Cejudo being competitive in the second and maybe third rounds. Demetrious Johnson via UD.
Nick Baldwin: I don’t see Cejudo being a test for Mighty Mouse. Johnson is too strong, too fast and has an insane cardio level compared to the Olympic gold medalist. Cejudo could make it close early but he doesn’t have a finish win in his four UFC outings. If he can’t finish Dustin Kimura, he sure can’t finish arguably the greatest fighter on planet Earth. Cejudo needs to grind this one out, but I would be surprised if he can even land a single takedown, despite his credentials in the wrestling department. I think Johnson picks him apart on the feet, maybe even takes him down, for a decision win or a late submission. Demetrious Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Mookie Alexander: I can absolutely see Barboza getting the upset here. Pettis will get his space to work his striking vs. Barboza, but how often have we ever seen Anthony fight a pure striker? I guess Cerrone, but Cowboy’s style isn’t all that comparable to Edson’s. Barboza seems to be reacting better to absorbing strikes, his offense is lethal, and Pettis hasn’t often dealt with guys as creative as Barboza. That said, Pettis can also completely own Barboza on the mat, which is where I feel the fight will be taken in order to avoid the risk of getting chin-checked. It’s going to be a fun one, that’s for sure. Anthony Pettis by submission, round 2.
Victor: Ah. A battle between two of the most inconsistent yet spectacularly exciting fighters of our time. And while Pettis reached the mountaintop, Barboza seems stuck between second and third gear. Usually I favor guys with Muay Thai-oriented striking over Karate/Taekwondo guys, but Pettis’ movement and his blending of boxing, kickboxing, Taekwondo and criminally long amounts of Marvel vs Capcom gameplay will be an advantage. That and the fact that Barboza can be a painfully slow starter that often has problems defending shots down the middle (exploited masterfully by Cerrone). Barboza’s not taking Pretty Tony down, so his best bet is to work pressure striking up close, because the only guys that succeed against Pettis are guys that don’t let him use his range. Guida, Alvarez and RDA gave him no breathing room, flustered his timing and kept him contained, and Barboza does none of those things to that degree. Pettis superstyles on Edson in a majority of the exchanges for a thrilling bout that ends in a decision. Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision.
Tim Bissell: This is a fight designed to get Pettis back to relevancy. If Barboza wants to grind out a win, and he’s studied Pettis’ last two fights, I’m sure he could stifle Showtime, but I expect Barboza believes he can do that fighting his own style. If both fighters give each other space to tee off on one another, I favour Pettis to hurt Barboza and follow up with a choke. Anthony Pettis by submission (d’arce choke), round 3.
Phil Mackenzie: Lost in the excitement about this fight is the fact that the loser will be 1-3 in their last 4, but there is any justice… ANY justice at all in this cold, bleak world, Edson Barboza will win. These two were both flawed, dangerous fighters back when Pettis joined the UFC, but Showtime’s flaws were much, much less pronounced. The damning thing is that Barboza has clawed and eked and scraped his way to being a far better fighter than he was, and has actively addressed his struggles with the pocket and getting backed into the cage… and Pettis is still pretty much the same goddamn guy he was back then, and the fight is still unfairly difficult to call. Why should Pettis win? Why does he deserve to win? Just because he can punch a bit straighter? Because he has a better chin? I’m going to pick Pettis, solely because I’m going to be so furious if he wins that I at least want to be consoled by having made the right pick. Anthony Pettis by something.
Zane Simon: Two guys that will probably get the fight they want, and while Edson Barboza is one of the most exciting and consistent range strikers in the business, Anthony Pettis is a better finisher and a tougher out… and every bit as creative. Anthony Pettis via KO, Round 3.
Nick Baldwin: Hey, at least Pettis won’t get grinded out for the third time in a row. Stylistically, this a dream matchup for the former champion. But I’m still going with Edson Barboza — once a lesser version of Showtime. Not anymore, though. Pettis’ beating to Rafael dos Anjos changed him for the rest of his career. I don’t think Pettis will be as quick, as accurate, as powerful as he was when he reigned the UFC lightweight division. I see this being a competitive affair over the course of 15 minutes, but I actually think the Brazilian does enough on the feet to take home a win. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision
Staff picking Barboza: Nick Staff picking Pettis: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Rafael Natal vs. Robert Whittaker
Mookie Alexander: I’m really high — not that way, you idiots — on Robert Whittaker has a future title contender at 185. Natal has worked on his game considerably, but he’s still got a wayward gas tank and Whittaker is the better athlete with faster, more powerful hands. Robert Whittaker via TKO, round 2.
Victor: Fantastic matchmaking here. A juicy bout that serves as a litmus test but should also cause both fighters to elevate their respective games. Sapo’s been falling behind, though. While he’s not likely to have the same defensive lapses that he had against tim Kennedy, Whittaker is intense. His last two fights have been crazy displays of maturity, focus and great movement with excellent choices in terms of when and where to attack. Natal will have a hard time taking this to the ground, and he’s not very fast while upright, either. Robert Whittaker, Round 2 TKO.
Tim Bissell: I’m picking Whittaker, but that betting line is incredible for a sport as crazy as MMA. I think Whittaker does to Natal what he did to Hall and earns a decision, but any middleweight at 3-1 odds is worth a sprinkle. Robert Whittaker by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Like Gleison Tibau at lightweight, Natal has somewhat perfected a style which revolves around landing just enough strikes and having just enough top control time to win decisions while exactly apportioning out his limited gas tank. Like Tibau, his problems are in opponents who can blow through that structure with sheer offensive capability and pace. That’s Whittaker, who is very violent and very fast paced. The only thing keeping me from proclaiming this a bit of a lock is the fact that Natal is a more effective wrestler than anyone Whittaker has faced in his career. By, like, a lot. Still, Robert Whittaker by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Whittaker is faster, harder to take down, more powerful, and more consistent in his output throughout the fight. Natal is tough and diverse enough to outwork other generic MW talents, but Whittaker isn’t that. Robert Whittaker via TKO, round 1.
Nick Baldwin: Welp. I’m disappointed by Phil’s breakdown. Too … sad … to … finish … mine. Robert Whittaker via TKO; Round 1
Fraser Coffeen: You guys are all nuts. This has boring Natal grind-fest written all over it. Rafael Natal, split decision
Mookie Alexander: I like Fili’s fights, but he’s not been particularly consistent and Rodriguez has the higher upside to me. That’s not to say Fili can’t get the win, because Rodriguez is also a prospect and he can get a bit wild. Ultimately I think Rodriguez’s more diverse and unpredictable offensive attacks keep Fili flustered and flummoxed. Yair Rodriguez by unanimous decision.
Victor: I have a feeling that two years from now, a rematch between these two could easily headline an FS1/Fight Pass card. Two of the most exciting young talents going head to head, and it’s almost guaranteed to be fun. Fili’s got a crisp striking game as well as the patented Alpha Male top game, but Rodriguez (no relation) has a more unorthodox array of attacks to keep anyone on their toes, plus the fact that he hits very, very hard. Yair Rodriguez by decision.
Zane Simon: Fili is a very very live dog in this fight. He’s a better athlete than Yair’s last opponent and way better striker than Charles Rosa. He’s a more technically developed fighter than Yair as well. But, Yair seems to know what his strengths are and stick to them and he is a phenom athlete in a way that I don’t think Fili can match. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if Fili finished strong on his way to a loss. Yair Rodriguez via decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Rodriquez is the better athlete, but I’m just not really in love with his game. He has athletically turbocharged the old “kicks’n’submissions” build which we’ve seen max itself out multiple times in the lower to middle end of the UFC (with the exception of Pretty Tony). More than his technical or athletic gifts, what has impressed me has been how cool-headed he is, and this is his biggest advantage over Fili. However, I still just don’t believe in kicks’n’subs games, particularly those which have never really been tested by decent wrestlers or boxers, and Fili can do both those things as well as being able to compete in the kicking and scrambling phases. Andre Fili by unanimous decision
Nick Baldwin: I’m not riding the Rodriguez hype train as much as most people. Will he be a contender in the future? Possibly, but I don’t think it’s his time, quite yet. Fili is more experienced and I just can’t trust a wild fighter like Rodriguez (unless your name is Tony Ferguson). Don’t forget to eat one for Fili when he wins, people. Andre Fili via Unanimous Decision
Staff picking Fili: Nick, Phil, Tim Staff picking Rodriguez: Artem, Tim Bis, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Chris Kelades vs. Sergio Pettis
Victor: I don’t check the odds for these, but if Kelades is the underdog (and that’s highly likely given Pettis’ name value and promise he’s shown) I’d bet the dog’s heart medication money on him. He’s primarily a grappler, should be able to exploit the same deficiencies in Sergio’s game that his brother has and neutralize the distance game while sticking to him like flypaper. Kelades has crazy backtakes and is clever in scramble situations. That and the fact that Sergio is still somewhat unreliable to me. Long live upsets. Chris Kelades by decision.
Tim Bissell: Pettis was sensational in his last performance. However, I’m unconvinced that the version of Chris Cariaso he faced is worthy of the reactions most will have to seeing that name on the young man’s record. I think Pettis may hurt Kelades in the first, but then struggle for answers after the Canadian survives those early blitzes. I’m predicting that Kelades elkins Pettis throughout the second and third round on route to an ugly – possibly controversial – win. Chris Kelades by split decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Sergio Pettis is less athletic than his brother, but in many ways that’s forced him to conform to a better archetype. Offensive phase shifting, and more conventional boxing and volume striking layered with kicks rather than based around them. Some people say his problems are mental, but mostly I think they’re physical: he’s a weight class ‘tweener, and makes for a stocky distance fighter at 135, and is visibly drained and less durable at 125. As someone who’s ping-ponged back and forth between classes, he’s been forced to make some sometimes-disastrous adjustments to changing timing and speed between the two, and while Kelades is very strong and tough, he’s not quick at all. The biggest issue for me is how prone Sergio is to dropping the third round, sometimes very badly. Sergio Pettis by unanimous decision
Zane Simon: I realize that Pettis is less impressive than people want him to be and that Kelades has been more impressive than people thought he would be, but stylistically this is kind of a nightmare for Kelades. He’s not a power striker and at range he’s a very poor one. When he sits down on his boxing in the pocket, it’s okay… Not great, but okay. Pettis has a habit of getting dropped, but the only person to actually KO him was Ryan Benoit who is nothing if not a power puncher. Otherwise Kelades doesn’t have a great takedown game, relying more on his opponents to put themselves (or try to put him) on the mat. Sergio has been willing to pull guard or keep it before, but his grappling is a place where his athletic advantages may come into better play. Essentially, I just can’t see Kelades grinding Pettis against the cage or holding him on his back long enough to get a win. Sergio Pettis via decision.
Nick Baldwin: This is probably going to be a grinding affair either way, but I like little Pettis to get the job done. Chances are I’ll be wrong in one of the Pettis fights, because they usually either both win on the same card or both lose. I think Pettis’ ceiling is way higher than Kelades’. Pettis will pick him apart at the beginning and end up on top throughout the fight multiple times, en route to a decision or late finish. Sorry Canada. Sergio Pettis via Unanimous Decision
Phil Mackenzie: This fight should be very fun. Steele is cast in the same approximate mould as early career Ben Henderson: a die-by-the-sword type of wrestler, eschewing safe top control for phase-shift violence. Unfortunately for him, that may not serve him well against Roberts, who is just a much more dangerous finishing threat in virtually every phase (the Pettis to his Henderson, if you will). The caveat is that Roberts’ wrestling did not look massively improved against Coy, and that picking up subs is not generally a high-percentage way to victory. On balance though, I think there’s a very solid chance that Steele just gets melted in one of the first exchanges. Danny Roberts by TKO, round 1.
Tim Bissell: You gotta respect any guy with a KO via slam, and a loss to Zak Cummings is made far more palatable given what we saw in Zagreb, but ultimately I fancy Danny Roberts’ quick-twitch arsenal to get a finish over Jordan Peele– I mean Dominique Steele. Danny Roberts by TKO (punches), round 2.
Zane Simon: Steele is slow and very very hittable. Roberts is fast and has really pretty great boxing. Danny Roberts via TKO, Round 1.
Nick Baldwin: I’m super, super high on Roberts and I like him a lot here. Steele just isn’t very good — as Zane noted above, he’s slow and hittable. He’s also been knocked out a handful of times too, outside of the UFC. The more KO losses on your record, the easier it is to get KO’d the next time out. Roberts is quick and likes to knock people out. This is almost too easy. Danny Roberts via TKO; Round 1
Victor: I’ve had a soft spot for Esparza since her Bellator bout against Aguilar, and her wrestling-heavy style is one that I understand a lot of people appreciate, but she’s very smart about it when it goes her way. Taking on another Muay Thai-based striker after the devastating loss to Joanna Champion may sound counterintuitive, but it works in this case because Lima’s output isn’t the same, nor is her precision or tenacity. Lima can play the counter game very well and be smart about her shot selection, but Carla can use her lower base to take it where she wants it to go and work from there. Carla Esparza by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The much-anticipated return… the anticipated return… OK, just the the return of Juliana Lima: Chick Kongo. Nominally a kickboxer, she doesn’t really kick or box very much, preferring instead to grind in the clinch. She’ll probably win every second of this fight that’s on the feet and not in the clinch, but seeing as that’s probably going to be a grand total of about 15 seconds given who these two fighters are, I think I like the better and more consistent wrestler. Carla Esparza by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Juliana Lima may be a competitive wrestler against Esparza both offensively and defensively, but she’s not competitive when it comes to offensive production. If Lima’s best chance is to stay defensive and to grind Esparza from top control, I don’t see any clear path to a win for her. Carla Esparza via decision.
Nick Baldwin: Let’s see how Esparza rebounds from a possibly career-changing loss to Joanna Champion. That’s the only thing going for Lima. Esparza could look terrible, and Lima could simply take advantage of that. I don’t expect Esparza to be at her best, but I think we see more than a ghost of her. So I’ll pick her. Carla Esparza via Unanimous Decision
Phil Mackenzie: Sometimes I feel like Sean Shelby has absolutely no idea who James Vick is. Do you have a potentially interesting prospect from a non-American market, who has either an interesting personality or natural physical gifts? Hey, I know, why not totally stall their momentum by putting them against a gigantic, brutally tough, awkward, high-pace fighter like Vick; a fight where they are virtually guaranteed to look like crap. Franca is a physical specimen and of course he might be able to just lamp the Texan, who is a little over-reliant on his durability, but… stop booking James Vick like this. James Vick by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Franca is yet another good young fighter who is going to find himself likely losing to a guy he just can’t seem to hurt and can’t out work. Vick isn’t a technical wunderkind, but he’s big and tough and is a very crafty in fighter and grappler. Franca probably hurts him a bit standing and then tries to take him down and gets subbed. James Vick by submission, Round 1.
Nick Baldwin: TUF winners haven’t been doing so well lately. James Vick is a legit prospect. So, James Vick via Submission; Round 1.
Staff picking Franca: Tim Staff picking Vick: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Cody East vs. Walt Harris
Phil Mackenzie: This seems like an underrated trap fight for East. Walt Harris has a dismal UFC record, but he’s a sharp striker for heavyweight with a nice left kick to the body. His losses have come to power grapplers and to a weird headkick from Krylov tha Gawd. This is perhaps the first outing for him where we’ll see him get “his” fight. I still think East wins- he sets and keeps a much higher pace, but his tendency to leave his head bolt upright is concerning, and gaudy regional HW records often aren’t worth the blubber they’re printed on. Cody East by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Harris just doesn’t seem to be tough enough to be a UFC heavyweight and East puts a serious pace on guys. Cody East via KO, Round 1.
Nick Baldwin: Dana White: Lookin’ For A Brawler Who Loses His/Her Second Fight in the UFC. Sounds a bit more accurate. East is another guy from Dana White’s new YouTube show (why it’s not exclusively on Fight Pass boggles my mind) but I actually think he’ll snap the Lookin’ For A Fight curse here. Walt Harris is bigger but he’ll still probably get KO’d. Cody East via Knockout; Round 1
Zane Simon: Neither of these guys is the toughest or highest fight IQ guy in MMA. Both have a habit of outworking their own cardio and of jumping on opportunities that end up putting them in worse positions than they were in. Still, Pezao has generally proven to have a tougher chin over his career and he’s bigger and stronger and ridiculously hard hitter. That’s too much for me to trust Hester’s speed and athleticism in his first jaunt into the 205 lb division. Pezao via KO, Round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: I’ve historically overrated Hester, but I feel like I have to give him one last shot. Partially this is because I feel that he’s almost the archetype of the fighter who really should move up a division: a huge middleweight who struggled with cardio and being just that fraction too slow more than he did getting muscled around. Clint Hester by TKO, round 2.
Nick Baldwin: Dana White appears to like brawls (see East-Harris breakdown) and that’s what he’s going to get here. Lima and Hester will go out there and swing for the fences until one gets the knockout or they A) knock each other out B) gas or C) fail to hit each other and go to a terrible, terrible decision. Lima looked a tad smaller so I’ll go Hester. Clint Hester via Knockout; Round 1
Mookie Alexander: Rough loss for Lee in his last fight, but I think he’s good enough to take Escudero apart here. Kevin Lee by unanimous decision.
Victor: John Crouch has done some great work with Escudero and getting him back to the UFC under his tutelage, but Kevin Lee had a very hot hand prior to his last fight where he got finished via strikes. Lee’s still more dynamic as an athlete and can push a pace that Escudero may not be able to handle. Kevin Lee by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Escudero has been a pleasant if muted surprise in his time returned to the UFC. Nothing major, nothing spectacular but he’s a solid and gritty presence. Kevin Lee’s KO loss to Leonardo Santos showed just how reliant his striking is on mixing in his wrestling, but short of a miracle guillotine he should have no issues implementing his grappling on Escudero in a fight which may start off competitive, but will become progressively less so over time. Escudero has historically been crazy durable, so Kevin Lee by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Man, I want Lee to win this, but there’s no reason that he should be a huge favorite or a unanimous pick. Escudero is durable and a solid veteran with a pretty complete game in a way that Lee isn’t. Given Lee’s propensity for fighting in straight lines with his head on line and chin up, I think he gives Escudero too many opportunities to create offense. And while Escudero isn’t any kind of power KO threat, neither was Leonardo Santos. I think this will be an ugly decision, with Escudero doing just enough to take it. Efrain Escudero via split decision.
Nick Baldwin: Kevin Lee suffered a KO loss in his last outing but he’s going to rebound successfully here. He’s probably better than Escudero everywhere, and I think he gets the finish. Kevin Lee via Submission; Round 2
