Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight finishers Donald Cerrone and Matt Brown will collide this Saturday night (Dec. 10, 2016) at UFC 206 inside Air Canada Center in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Cerrone’s Welterweight run has been electric. He’s scored a trio of finishes over some very tough opposition, and that was supposed to earn him a big step up opposite Kelvin Gastelum. Weight issues for his opponent derailed that bout, however, so now Cerrone will scrap with a brawler. After his incredible rise into the Top 10, things have fallen apart for Brown. He’s lost four of his last five bouts, and while it was largely opposite the division’s best, his most recent loss was a definite disappointment. To remain a Top 15-ranked fighter, Brown really needs to pull off the upset here.
Let’s take a look at the keys to victory for each man:
Donald Cerrone
Record: 31-7 (1)
Key Wins: Rick Story (UFC 202), Patrick Cote (UFC Fight Night 89), Eddie Alvarez (UFC 178), Benson Henderson (UFC Fight Night 59)
Key Losses: Rafael dos Anjos (UFC on FOX 17, UFC Fight Night 27), Anthony Pettis (UFC on FOX 6)
Keys to Victory: Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai kickboxer with dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu. That description also fits his opponent fairly well, but Cerrone prefers to chop his opponent down from a distance whereas Brown wants to work his way inside the clinch and brutalize his foe.
It’s a battle of distance, like most of Cerrone’s bouts.
At this point, Brown’s vulnerability to body shots is pretty well-known. He’s been dropped multiple times via liver strike, and he was finished via knockout for the first time in his career last time out by a body kick. Seeing as how Cerrone kicks really damn hard, that’s a pretty big opening. As Brown pushes forward, Cerrone should jam a snap kick into his mid-section immediately. If Brown inches past that technique, Cerrone’s step knee will help back his opponent off.
Both of those techniques have the potential to end this bout, but Cerrone’s switch kick is perhaps his best shot at ending this one early. It’s a sneaky weapon that aims directly at Brown’s weak point, and Cerrone absolutely loves to throw it.
VS.
Matt Brown
Record: 20-15
Key Wins: Stephen Thompson (UFC 145), Jordan Mein (UFC on FOX 7), Erick Silva (UFC Fight Night 40), Mike Pyle (UFC Fight Night 26)
Key Losses: Robbie Lawler (UFC on FOX 12), Johny Hendricks (UFC 185), Demian Maia (UFC 198), Jake Ellenberger (UFC 201)
Keys to Victory: Brown is a vicious Muay Thai fighter who thrives in the clinch. When Brown is able to close distance and unleash his offense, he’s unrelenting and breaks his opponent down with vicious elbows and knees.
Brown needs to make this bout ugly, and he needs to do it immediately. Cerrone is far too dangerous and well-equipped to take Brown out at range for him to hang around there for even an instant, and Cerrone has a history of starting slowly anyway.
By rushing Cerrone, Brown may eat some punches, but that’s never been an issue for him in the past. If he can get into his own punching range, Brown is the harder puncher and will be able to punch into the clinch. Once there, Brown is excellent at drowning his foe in the clinch with volume. He may be able to replicate Nate Diaz’s success opposite “Cowboy” in the range, but Brown’s blows are even more devastating. Cerrone is known for being susceptible to body shots as well, and Brown sets up his knees to the body like an expert.
Bottom Line: It’s going to be an absolute war for however long it lasts.
Cerrone is trying to rush to a title shot. Being able to fight once per month is making it possible, as Cerrone is beginning to build an argument to leap frog someone like Demian Maia. At the very least, a win here helps him set up a title eliminator match with the jiu-jitsu master. On the other hand, a loss definitely sets Cerrone back. He hasn’t yet faced a truly dangerous striker like Brown at 170 pounds, and that is a different challenge than a top wrestler like Rick Story.
As for Brown, this is a very important bout for him. He won’t be released with a loss, but three straight defeats is always a bad sign. He’s been losing to really tough competition, but it may show that his career renaissance is over. That said, a win would be huge. In addition to breaking his losing streak, it would be perhaps the biggest win of Brown’s career. It’s odd that Brown’s receiving a step up in competition following some losses, but that’s the situation.
At UFC 206, Donald Cerrone and Matt Brown will brawl in the co-main event. Which fighter will remain standing when the dust settles?