Phil and David breakdown everything you need to know about Woodley vs. Till for UFC 228, and everything you don’t about Omar’s philosophy on how to play the game.
Tyron Woodley vs. Darren Till headlines UFC 228 this September 8, 2018 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.
One sentence summary
David: Can a man who went blind trying to make welterweight reach his limit? (copyright, Bloody Elbow commenter, 2018)
Phil: Together, they’ve given you some of the worst fights elite welterweight has seen in years… now, try to pray that they don’t meet expectations
Stats
Record: Tyron Woodley 18-3-1 Draw | Darren Till 17-0
Odds: Tyron Woodley +130 | Darren Till -150
History / Introduction to the fighters
David: Woodley has become a lightning rod of big right hands, Straight Outta Compton cameos (remember the bouncer that takes out some fools on the escalator?), and a lack of BIG RIGHT HAND(s). I forgot to mention the unfortunate aspect of overt racism from UFC fans, and the elegant racism of the UFC promotion machine that Woodley deftly articulates (it helps that the UFC has been overeager to promote Covington). Whether or not he’s right is probably a separate article, for which there is no return. But within this political fight brew is a man who just can’t quite get asses out of seats. Unfortunately for Woodley, that’s the bottom line. The moral scales of justice are irrelevant if you can counterweight wrong from a performative right. Dana White can overlook the former, but not the latter. Woodley is a compelling figure to me. He’s a UFC champion, after all. But his words carry as much weight as the fists he uses to punish human flesh. As Omar said, ‘it’s all in the game.’
Phil: Tyron Woodley may not have set the world alight as a GSP type of must-watch champion, one who can surf over boring performances by getting people invested in his next challenge, but it’s definitely getting to the point where people are more accepting of him as the 170lb champ. Robbie Lawler isn’t coming back! Resignation might not be the greatest kind of investment, but it’s better than nothing. Woodley remains an insightful voice discussing the travails of the promotional machine of the UFC, and someone who is never afraid to stand up for what he’s earned. Unfortunately, he has also had three of the most boring title fights in the division’s history, back to back to back.
David: Till has led a Bisping-like rise up the ranks. He’s got a specific style, relatively quiet cage demeanor, and now here we are. Earned or not, Till offers a lot of problems for anyone in the division, but the biggest problem lately has been his weight. He’s a massive welterweight. Will this be a problem going forward? Maybe. Since it’s the UFC, maybe this is another preview we worked hard on that will get scrapped at the last minute because the universe hates us.
Phil: Darren Till is proof that the McGregor rise was something more than the sum of its parts. It’s not just about getting a fun, knockout southpaw from the UK and Ireland with a mouth on him rise up the ranks, is it? While Till has done a great job of cementing himself as a fighter to keep an eye on, and has bypassed a number of (debatably more or as deserving) contenders like Covington, Usman and Edwards, there hasn’t been quite the number of buzzworthy moments which you’d hope for. He dusted Cerrone in one round, which is… not an uncommon thing for a large, powerful southpaw to do? Other than that, the Thompson fight was horrendous, and there are notable black marks like a draw with noted non-athlete Nicolas Dalby. I feel like this fight should be more exciting than it is.
What’s at stake?
David: Inexplicably, title unification, but at this point, who even knows.
Phil: The chance to take on maybe-holder of the most legendarily pointless interim belt in the UFC’s history. I don’t think the UFC has even officially stripped Covington at this point, and I suspect it might not be for any promotional reason, but simply because they forgot…?
Where do they want it?
David: Woodley is a postmodern throwback (can I saw that without being laughed at?). He kind of remains me of Maurice Smith. There’s nothing special about his approach, and everything about his strategy is predictable. He’s just damn effective. As we’ve mentioned before, Woodley’s instinct to back up against the cage has strangely become a useful tactic. In a weird way, his tactics (backing up) are at odds with his strategy (effective defense). After all, against the fence, you limit the options you have to reset, pivot, and counterstrike. In Woodley’s hands, it’s a way to unleashing an otherwise dormant boxing routine. Woodley won’t pressure, or come forward, so backing up allows him to get an easier read on his opponent. The end result is Severn vs. Shamrock II. Still, Woodley succeeds because he has bricks in his hands, speed, and kicks that look like how I imagine Zangief would if he were a shotokan.
Phil: To his credit, Woodley has taken the outdated wrestleboxer archetype and made it bizarrely effective. A lot of that has to do with a single trait, which can be described as a reluctance to pull the trigger if you’re feeling uncharitable, and discipline if you are. He’s an MMA counterfighter, who waits for his opponent to throw and then blitzes forward through space with either the right hand or the take down. He’s willing to back himself up to the cage to do that, which allows him to measure space more easily, but also constrains his defensive options. The issue is that when opponents try to capitalize, he comes off the cage and hits them or takes them down. He has good footwork and is a powerful leg kicker, and his grappling game has come along leaps and bounds since his Strikeforce career. Honestly, it’s mostly the right hand and the takedown though. Will that be enough?
David: Till is fairly limited in a strict sense. But what he lacks in variety of strikes he makes up for in expert distance management, and lack of telegraphing. He’s primarily a string of the following: right jab, straight left, and somewhere in there are big kicks from the left side. However, he’s able to change the pace, rhythm, and even mechanics of his left. This was crucial against Donald Cerrone. Sometimes the left would come straight down the pipe. Sometimes it would be followed immediately by a right hand jab. Sometimes he would loop the left, and angle his punch entries. Sometimes he would feint. And so forth. He maintains the right posture, and keeps the pressure coming. It’s not all sunshine and tattoos though. His predictability can allow opponents to neutralize an otherwise seamless rhythm, and he he’s not near as effective backing up.
Phil: Till is a slightly more variegated fighter than Woodley, but not a huge amount. As with the champion, he greatly favours his left hand, and throws it with a number of different timings and setups. He stutter steps, he fakes it only to throw it after his weight transfer is done (a la McGregor) or he shortens it into an elbow. He can jab, and very well too, but it’s mostly been as throwaways or setups for the big left. So this fight inherently seems like it’s going to be one which is defined by space: contested in open space, with both men looking to land their power hand. Defensively Till is largely reliant on his size: he doesn’t have much head movement and relies on pulling straight back and using his hands to catch return fire. This is more than a little concerning for him concerning that running down people who are moving straight backwards is exactly how Woodley has badly hurt almost every opponent he’s fought. Till likes the Thai walk and turns it into body kicks or the oblique kick in a way which is oddly reminiscent of Lando Vannata. In both cases I think the primary goal is simply disguising the rhythmic approach of how he closes into the left. Different ways of stepping down trick the opponent into being unable to figure out when he’s finally stepping into the cross.
Insight from past fights
David: For all the talk about Woodley backing up against the cage, Till might be equally bad. Granted, the circumstances going into the third round against Nicolas Dalby were different, but Till leaves himself wide open for takedowns, and doesn’t pivot well. Woodley has trouble with angles, and movement. Till doesn’t have much of that, so if’s on tilt going into the later rounds, Woodley will have no problem finding space for his right hand.
Phil: For all that Till’s fight with Thompson was awful, it was also impressive that such a young fighter was able to figure out Thompson in a way which people like Woodley and MacDonald failed at. In particular it was notable that Till’s big moment of success (and mostly the only real success anyone had in the fight) was when he backed Thompson into the fence. Forcing Thompson to flee down the cage with throwaway right hands, he simply launched his left hand parallel to the fence and knocked the karateka down. A lot of his best work (the Veli?kovi? elbow, the Cerrone knockout) has been done when his opponent has their back to the cage. While Woodley likes being by the cage, MacDonald showed that it’s something which can be exploited by a crafty opponent.
X-Factors
David: The after effects of making weight.
Phil: Till missing weight Woodley almost missing weight…?
Prognostication
Phil: I came into this fully expecting to pick Woodley, and he remains in possession of a number of tools which seem like they can trouble Till: his blitzes vs Till’s average defense, and his takedowns against Till’s as-yet largely unproven takedown defense and bottom game. However… I can’t shake how easily MacDonald could shut Woodley down once he’d figured out how badly he liked being pressured near the cage. Till is large and powerful, which partially insulates himself in ways that his basic defense doesn’t, and seems overjoyed when he has someone that he can feint and pressure against. Darren Till by TKO, round 2.
David: I think Till has so many stylistic, and tactical tricks to beat Woodley. I just find it hard to pick against him given his tactical flaws. Basically, I think Till’s worst instincts are more likely to have fight-ending effects than Woodley’s worst instincts. I could absolutely see Till making it look easy (finish included). But that’s MMA for you: the better fighter doesn’t always win. Sometimes a teaspoon of knuckles, and a tablespoon of velocity is all you need. Tyron Woodley by KO, round 4.