After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 236 tonight in Atlanta.
The win probabilities for UFC 236’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Holloway-Poirier 2 and Gastelum-Adesanya, see Tuesday’s piece.
Max Holloway (65.8%) over Dustin Poirier
Israel Adesanya (52.3%) over Kelvin Gastelum
Eryk Anders (66.2%) over Khalil Rountree
Ovince Saint Preux (59.6%) over Nikita Krylov
Alexandre Pantoja (56.6%) over Wilson Reis
Belal Muhammad (60.4%) over Curtis Millender
Current Bankroll: $10,152.02
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,549.39
No bets today as of this writing (11am PT). Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.