Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight greats Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone will go to war this Saturday (June 8, 2019) at UFC 238 from inside United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
It’s been seven years since Ferguson last tasted defeat inside the Octagon, as “El Cucuy” has ripped off 11 straight wins and picked up an interim title in that span. While circumstances beyond Ferguson’s control may prevent him from ever capturing the official crown, that won’t stop him from attempting to continue his incredible streak. Cerrone is no stranger to a scrap, either. “Cowboy” has been fighting the best of the best for the better part of a decade now, breaking some records along the way. In his last three wins, Cerrone has appeared reinvigorated and more dangerous than ever, perhaps finally ready for a successful title run.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Tony Ferguson
Record: 24-3
Key Wins: Kevin Lee (UFC 216), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC Fight Night 98), Anthony Pettis (UFC 229), Edson Barboza (TUF 22 Finale), Josh Thomson (UFC Fight Night 71)
Key Losses: Michael Johnson (UFC on FOX 3)
Keys to Victory: Ferguson is among the least predictable fighters in the sport, likely to attempt any sort of weird technique at any given time. Still, Ferguson can be counted on to maintain absurd amounts of pressure and volume, looking to break his opponent down with constant offense.
Luckily, that fits the mold for defeat Cerrone.
Improvements or no, Cerrone has never liked pressure or fighters with the ability to jam powerful, straight punches down his gullet. Ferguson has both those abilities in spades, and it’s an absolute certainty that he’ll be walking down Cerrone and trying to crack his chin from the first bell.
If there was one real adjustment I’d like to see Ferguson make opposite “Cowboy,” it’s an additional focus on his snap kick to the body. Cerrone historically hates body shots, particularly at 155 pounds. Plus, a few of those hard snap kicks should rather quickly push Cerrone into the fence, where Ferguson is even more likely to capitalize with his boxing.
Donald Cerrone
Record: 36-11 (1)
Key Wins: Eddie Alvarez (UFC 178), Benson Henderson (UFC Fight Night 59), Al Iaquinta (UFC Fight Night 151), Alexander Hernandez (UFC Fight Night 143), Yancy Medeiros (UFC Fight Night 126), Rick Story (UFC 202)
Key Losses: Jorge Masvidal (UFC on FOX 23), Darren Till (UFC Fight Night 118), Leon Edwards (UFC Fight Night 132), Robbie Lawler (UFC 214), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC on FOX 17, UFC Fight Night 27)
Keys to Victory: Cerrone’s built up one of the sport’s greatest resumes, utilizing his punishing Muay Thai and crafty submission game to overwhelm the majority of his opponents for years now. Even as he’s made minor improvements and small adjustments, the overall strategy of kick until his foe cannot move has remained the same.
Against Ferguson, earning his respect will be the most important factor. Ferguson is going to walk Cerrone down, and his height means that Cerrone’s favorite intercepting knee is unlikely to land effectively, nor can Cerrone count on the counter cross to land so consistently as it did on Iaquinta.
Instead, Cerrone would be best advised to rip body kicks from the open side of whatever stance Tony Ferguson is in. That’s a strategy Kevin Lee used well opposite Ferguson early, as a power kick to the open side forces even Ferguson to take notice. In addition, Cerrone has to understand when to avoid the pocket. It may be tempting to trade with Ferguson for longer periods of time, but often a simple jab and some lateral movement would better serve “Cowboy” in that match up.
Bottom Line: UFC 238 is a great card, and this is the best fight.
I won’t even pretend to know what the stakes are for Tony Ferguson — he should’ve faced off for the undisputed belt three times over already. He shouldn’t have to take this fight. From a fan perspective, however, I’m thrilled that he did, because this is absolutely guaranteed to be an amazing bout. Unfortunately, there’s a reasonable chance an amazing, “Fight of the Year”-worthy victory will still see Ferguson shafted from a title shot, whereas a loss would really hurt his position.
Uncrowned king is no fun position.
As for “Cowboy,” this is possibly the final title eliminator of his career, his last chance to earn a title fight and become champion. At 36 years of age, some cracks have begun to show in recent years, but Cerrone has held it together and performed wonderfully in his last trio of wins. For all his greatness, Ferguson has been wobbled before, so there’s a real chance that Cerrone puts a shin to his temple and sets himself up for a title fight.
Don’t miss this one, ladies and gentleman.
At UFC 238, Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone will face off in a pivotal Lightweight contest. Which man will have his hand raised?