Phil and David breakdown everything you need to know about Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos for UFC 239, and everything you don’t about cocaine outbursts.
Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos headlines UFC 239 this July 6, 2019 at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
One sentence summary
Phil: Hammer vs bones
David: The Upset vs. The Upsetting
Stats
Record: Jon Jones 24-1-1 NC | Thiago Santos 21-6
Odds: Jon Jones -605 | Thiago Santos +505
History / Introduction to the fighters
Phil: Jon Jones is settling into a pleasantly workmanlike approach to his latest light heavyweight run. He’s not a better man, there has been no road to Damascus conversion, but he’s here to beat up on people that he’s supposed to, and we get to watch it. Everything in interviews suggests that he doesn’t really give a rats ass about challenging himself, or moving up to heavyweight, or whatever, but honestly at this time some stability in the divisions is more than welcome. Double champs are two to the dollar right now, and I’m honestly happy to see someone line up challengers, and knock them down.
David: I’m glad we’re at this Jon Jones plateau. We’re no longer questioning why the UFC doesn’t market him better. We’re no longer outraged by the cocaine outbursts. We don’t have to hear Mike Goldberg get hyped for trivial moments just because his knowledge of other sports allows him the rare moment of superficial insight. The All-American, Aw Shucks image died a long time ago. In its absence, we can now concentrate on Jones, the fighter. I think we’re still in recovery in a lot of ways. But so might Jones, which explains why we’re still waiting for magic hour in the octagon. His quality of competition has waned in recent years. This fight is actually an example of that. But it has the added benefit of being a fun example of that.
Phil: We talked about how Amanda Nunes ascended without visibly addressing the flaws which always held her back, and it appears like her countryman and ATT teammate has kind of done the same thing. Admittedly, Marreta has always been a more extreme case than Nunes: where Nunes would get tired and panic her way into getting more tired, Santos has had a tendency to just straight up implode. The last time he did that was against David Branch, and in the time since he’s basically just racked up massive finishes, and a brutal asswhooping of Eryk Anders. It’s more than worth a title shot in the LHW division in the Year of Our Lord 2019.
David: It took awhile for Santos to settle into the role of home wrecker. He didn’t even differentiate himself on TUF. When he broke into the UFC, he didn’t differentiate himself there either. He was a stereotype of most TUF fighters: decent enough mechanics, but no flair. Eventually he found a groove. This groove was interrupted by counter-grooves i.e. Eric Spicely, David Branch, etc. But he’s 8-1 in his last nine, and all of these have involved moments of uncontrolled violence.
What’s at stake?
Phil: Another stepping stone for Jones on his road to asterisk-riddled greatness. A chance for Marreta to engineer a historic upset.
David: I’m more concerned about the physiological stakes.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Jones has been someone who has developed from an aggressive takedown and ground and pound machine into one of MMA’s better attritional range strikers. Booting people in the knee and kicking them in the body is now complemented by a much better jab and left hook, and far improved footwork and defense. He still tends to rely on grabbing hold and posting as his primary barrier against striking combinations, but hey: no-one has really gotten past it all that well. As has been mentioned by Ed Gallo in his phenomenal analysis of Jones’ wrestling, it is notable that certain elements of Jones’ game have sort of… disappeared over the years. His footsweep takedowns, his ability to swim into the clinch from strikes etc have mostly disappeared in favour of a pared-down wrist control and fence-mashing game. It was gratifying to see him hit a counter double leg and try some (admittedly ugly) range shots on Gustafsson, and simultaneously concerning to see him struggle badly to get down an extremely passive Anthony Smith.
David: Can someone’s game evolve, and devolve at the same time? Is this Shrodinger’s Clinch? A paradox of quantum pugilism that reveals the illusion of our common fight understandings? If so, Jones might be the perfect test case. As you mentioned, which Ed mentioned — parts of Jones’ game have given way to something different. It’s not just the way certain mechanics have been lost. They don’t feel lost so much as forgotten completely. I think part of this is by design. I don’t consider Jones a tactician, although I do consider him an intelligent fighter. One of the most intelligent. But I think it’s a peripheral component to what he wants the most: the psychology of the challenge. This is a guy who has always fought opponents on their terms. Whether it was Teixeira in the clinch, Shogun on the feet, Gustafsson at range, etc. I think Jones reads the reviews, the prognostications, and the analysis, and says ‘fuck that.’ Sound far fetched? This is a guy who reached into the darkest corners of the internet, and found a way to insult a Swedish teenager talking shit about him on Instagram. When everyone is saying “Jones can only lose on the feet” Jones will find a way to win on the feet.
Phil: Thiago Santos is a mad banger with a surprisingly good kicking game. This means that opponents often find themselves a little confused about where to contest him: they fight him at range and find him trying to boot their liver out through their spine. When they close in he tries to rip their head off with big hooks. That’s kind of… it? His main issues have been when he’s been closed down with any consistency: pushed up against the fence he tends to spaz out. This appears to be enhanced even more when he gets into troubling grappling situations, where he tends to try to Blackzilian his way to the feet and get himself into horrible trouble. He can be bailed out by his incredible athleticism, and his move up to light heavyweight seems to have helped out his dreadful chin and allowed him to keep a pace of incessant lunacy.
David: The funny thing about Santos is that he’s pretty much a stereotype of the Wild Striker. He wants to threaten at all times. He wants to threaten from afar, where his left leg is used as a gatling gun. He wants to threaten in close, in case his uppercut has enough mustard on it to stick the opponent on a Mortal Kombat highlight reel. And well, he does other stuff too. Just not as efficiently. That’s the charm, and essence of his efficiency. Instead of be someone he’s not, Santos lives and breathes the Hollywood’s version of the samurai philosophy. He’s a little like a modern day Yamato Damashi, Enson Inoue. His power is no joke either. This is a man who knocked out a professional fighter with his forearm, basically (Nate Marquardt). What helps keep everything gelled together is that he has excellent instincts. Those knockouts don’t happen via pure power. He’s not Jake Ellenberger. Because he’s so willing to threaten at various distances, he knows how to calibrate his attacks for maximum impact. This means his transition offense blends more seamlessly than it looks. That bodes well for Santos against Jones. In some ways.
Insight from past fights
Phil: You know, when Jones fought Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua I thought: how will this gifted young man deal with a consistent leg kick attack? And you know what? NO-ONE HAS ANSWERED THAT QUESTION TO MY SATISFACTION YET. The best and most devoted leg kicker to attack Jones has been Daniel “this man does not really have any knees” Cormier, and while I respect the effort he put in, he will never be one of MMA’s great kickers.
David: Thus far nobody has managed to really blitz Jones with any meaningful or decent pressure. Jones’ considerable length kind of just makes it physically unlikely, but not necessarily physically impossible. I recall Machida making some decent dart-in attacks before getting slept with a guillotine.
X-Factors
Phil: As in Holm-Nunes, I do find the gradual rot of Jackson-Wink to be disturbing. Is there anyone actually left in that gym? Arlovski, Condit, Cerrone, now Sanchez all gone. Waterson, Holm and Jones have to be pretty much the only elite Jackson-Wink fighters left, and while there might be some fighters who benefit from a lot of individual attention, I can’t help but feel that Jon Jones might not respond terribly well to being the sole meal ticket of a major gym.
David: Are you saying your Twitter handle must finally change?
Prognostication
Phil: Is Jon Jones undeniably a better fighter than Thiago Santos? Sure he is, in pretty much every way. But he’s also a gangly striker who has let his offensive wrestling decay, and Santos is a compact, aggressive banger who can kick his legs, and I’ve seen that style matchup play out too many times for me not to feel like taking a flyer. Thiago Santos by TKO, round 2.
David: I give you credit for sticking with the Santos pick even when all logic, history, flesh, and bone should tell you otherwise. I can see it too. But styles are like words: the right context can turn words into more than grammar, but ideas, and those ideas can have a real impact. Santos has the right words. He can write the correct sentence, and that sentence can hum at a tune Jones might find difficult unpacking. But Santos is not a fighter with a great history. He’s not a fighter who has shown himself capable of turning those words into full tilt contention. Without the right words, he won’t be able to close what could have been his greatest chapter. Jon Jones by Guillotine, round 1.