Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 248 tonight in Las Vegas.
The win probabilities for UFC 248’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the Adesanya-Romero and Zhang-Jedrzejczyk headlining matchups, see Tuesday’s piece.
Israel Adesanya (53.7%) over Yoel Romero
Weili Zhang (78.5%) over Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Beneil Dariush (60.1%) over Drakkar Klose
Neil Magny (63.6%) over Li Jingliang
Alex Oliveira (54.5%) over Max Griffin
Polyana Viana (50.9%) over Emily Whitmire
Current Bankroll: $10,223.47
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,620.84
It’s interesting, the fight computer likes Zhang a lot more and Adesanya less than I would’ve expected based on their apparent statistical edges from alternative stats. But it doesn’t bet underdogs and Zhang doesn’t have quite enough edge. However, it has $230.03 on Magny at +155 as of this writing (12:30pm ET).
I’m going to pause these win probability pieces for a bit while I try to improve the model. Alternative stats previews will continue in the meantime.
Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes, and is an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.