Phil and David break down everything you need to about Adesanya vs. Costa for UFC 253, and everything you don’t about 80’s action homoeroticism.
Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa headlines UFC 253 this September 26, 2020 at the Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
One sentence summary
Phil: The potential for thrilling violence is matched only by the simmering homoeroticism
David: MMA’s most dangerous neophytes
Stats
Record: Israel Adesanya 19-0 | Paulo Costa 13-0
Odds: Israel Adesanya -185 | Paulo Costa +160
History / Introduction to the fighters
Phil: Israel Adesanya is currently the example of the UFC’s recent approach to star-building (lit: rush them through contention as fast as possible), and it is one which has… sort of worked? He is not a McGregor-esque megastar, but there’s enough detectable ambient buzz that I think we see a step up in interest in this fight. It’s worth mentioning that every star that we’ve seen in recent memory (up to and including Rousey) sort of snuck up on us- I remember before Rousey fought Correia I wrote an article about how she was a legit star that was going to pull down a bare minimum of 500K buys and being roundly mocked. In this case, the social media around Israel has been simmering upwards, and why not? He’s exciting, charismatic, likes internet-friendly stuff like anime, and he’s a hell of a fighter.
David: In terms of draw and charisma, Adesanya is the fighter the UFC thought it had in Jon Jones. The UFC wanted Jones to be a star, and Jones wasn’t. And I mean beyond the legal stuff. Adesanya, on the other hand, is a fight philosopher. You hang on to his every word because he’s got a swagger few other fighters can carry — at least without it seeming forced (McGregor), artificial (Sonnen), or crass/dumb (Covington). Sure it manifests itself in over the top ways, but then you listen to his interview with Luke Thomas, and even the bleeding-heart-Foucalt-loving liberal in me can’t help but respect his walk-tall sincerity. Then again maybe I just need to lay off 70’s revenge thriller binge I’ve been on.
Phil: The other side of the rare title fight where both entities are undefeated is also, in a way which is not irrelevant to that fact, someone who has been sprinted through contention. Costa’s early UFC run was represented by sadistic bookings against future washouts in Bangbose and McLellan, and the tubby and dispirited ghost of Johny Hendricks. Then it was Uriah Hall, and then Yoel, and… that’s it? Throughout, we’ve gotten a better look at the man himself, and he joins many of his MMA compatriots in not being the sharpest tool in the drawer. What he shares with Adesanya specifically (warning: weird tweet) is a hilariously psychosexual approach to fighting. The pairing between the two has therefore resulted in what is absolutely hands down the most homoerotic fight build up I have ever seen. It leaves Garbrandt-Dillashaw in the stupid, sexy dust. It is the Key and Peele boxing presser sketch brought to life, only two-sided. When these two first met in real life they were as awkwardly bashful as the opening seconds of a fresh Tinder hookup.
David: It’s rare to see a fighter so thoroughly reinvent himself that he’s virtually unrecognizable. Costa began his career as a crude, force of sort-of-wrestle-sort-of-box will, and now he’s the sport’s most terrifying brawler. Not sure how it happened, but then again Costa believes Corona is “like beer” and supports a man who thinks liberal habits make gayness. Hateful people just tend to have that special elixir that keeps them going. But alas, we’re not here for politics! We’re here to forget about politics, and talk about what makes Costa a potential champion of the world. In which case, it’s simple. Costa is a big MF’er who swings to kill, and does so with enough elegance that nobody has stopped him up to this point.
What’s at stake?
Phil: As mentioned above, I think that Adesanya has a legitimate chance to become a star for the UFC. The Yoel fight fizzled, but a bunch of factors (Jones vacating, Conor riding the rail off to wherever he’s going, lockdown viewing boosting the UFC’s numbers a bit) leave Adesanya primed to capitalize. For Borrachinha? It’s a chance at a belt and at building his own legacy, just a bit further back in terms of the building process.
David: Not as much as people think. When I think of ‘high stakes’, history has to factor into it, and together, Adesanya and Costa have a combined total of 13 UFC fights. Whatever the outcome, we’re still learning about both men, regardless of what title’s on the line. This is an amazing fight. It’s the best fight all year. I’m not trying to undersell anything. But let’s hold off a bit before ‘welcoming’ a new era.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Well, this is one of those ones where the spatial dynamics are laid out to anyone who catches even a glimpse of these two fighting, or even to anyone who got a look at the two of them outside of the cage and had to take a guess. Adesanya is tall and lean, and fights long and rangy. A generous helping of feints via his hips and hands sets up his probing jab and right hand. As previously mentioned, a handsy, “sticky” kickboxing style has helped him in MMA with manipulating his opponents’ guards and focusing on diverting and controlling their strikes rather than shielding behind a wall of padding. He has been a natural in the clinch, including his ability to stiff-arm and pivot out, which I think will be key in this fight given Costa’s willingness to handfight. He is still, I think, more of an outfighter than a counter fighter though, which does make this an interesting proposition- it will be decided less through his ability to counter Costa with big singular shots as Costa closes, and more on his ability to dictate in the pocket and pull the wrong shot out of the Brazilian, responding accordingly. Similarly, while his cage craft has been excellent, it has typically deteriorated as fights go longer, and he starts to pivot less and stand square more. All this spells risk against a big-time cage-cutter who stays over his own feet.
David: Watching Adesanya fight, it’s almost kind of disturbing how critically lagging MMA is when it comes to striking. It’s the residue of binary actions: “fighter A learns the strict mechanics of striking despite the context surrounding those mechanics being totally different versus fighter B who is a nonstriker, wants nothing to do with striking, and is therefore never in a position for fighter A to execute those mechanics.” I don’t know if what I said made sense, or if I’m just running low on caffeine, so let’s look at some examples. “Fighter A” is someone like Alessio Sakara. Great mechanics: didn’t matter. The end result is that fighters with good mechanics can still get outstruck, and fighters with bad mechanics can appear technical. I’m waxing metaphysical here because Adesanya fights with none of this dojo, ecto cooler subterfuge. Just look at how much pressure he applies with nothing more than movement, and feints. I know. That sound you’re hearing is Rogan in the background forming a verbal mushroom cloud, “this is a different kind of striker!” But he’s right. Adesanya’s mind and body just get that to strike efficiently in MMA, you need to have an equal balance of proactive and reaction lines of movement. Adesanya’s movement is flawless. Because he’s always positioned correctly — whether angling out to force more movement from the opponent or pivoting back in and squaring up to counter — his options are limitless. Being flawless in one aspect doesn’t guarantee anything. If there’s one thing MMA has a habit of doing, it’s not giving a shit about what’s right.
Phil: Costa fights like he is starving to get at his opponent. I am struggling to think of a single fighter in MMA who is quite as defined by forward motion as Borrachinha – Justin Gaethje has taken his foot off the gas lately, as has John Lineker. There is perhaps Jessica Andrade, but she has a significant lack of craft when compared to Costa. And he is a genuinely crafty fighter, in his own hyperviolent way. He’s hungry to close the distance, but doesn’t sprint over that last slice of range, or rely on big blitzes like (it has been unfortunately revealed that) Robert Whittaker does. Instead, he quickly and carefully maneuvers his opponent into position before going berserk. But even when he does, his shot selection is excellent, as he switches up his targets at the head and body even in the middle of his lunatic flurries. My Heavy Hands co-host Connor Ruebusch mentioned that his approach is rhythmically monotonous, left-right-left-right, but there is one shot that Costa throws that does some near-accidental lifting in this area: his short left hook is bizarrely, disproportionately faster than any other punch in his arsenal, and he clocked a flummoxed Yoel Romero with it early in their bout. While Borrachinha is defensively nothing special, this punch on its own will have to make Adesanya cautious of setting up his jab or working in combination.
David: Where Adesanya’s pressure game is a modern take on general ringcraft, Costa’s is much more traditional. Costa’s striking was not his strength early in his career. Before, he was a Jackson Pollock of violent huff and puff. Now Costa has some education, and he’s a different version of what he used to be, which is: a super linear pressure fighter. What makes Costa more elegant than a two piece and a biscuit (we like to clog our arteries in America, Phil — that’s buttermilk, not scones) is the fact that he’s so good at cutting off resets and simplistic straight line retreats with a bruising round kick. This basic formula would fall flat for most fighters, but Costa’ thudding, swarming style makes it sing. The other thing is that he leaves no combination to waste. Most guys with Costa’s raw strength would just be Headhunters of the Week, but the fact that Costa just sends brutal heaters into the bread basket makes him a terror. ‘Strength’ is a good word, as I think it highlights what he is, and how he’s grown. Before the Romero fight, I may not have given him credit for being the type of cutting, searing puncher he’ll need to be to hurt Adesanya, but the fact that Costa was able to lance him with shots through the centerline makes me think more highly of Costa’s striking in this matchup. “But Costa barely even won that fight!” Nobody looks good against Romero. Hell, even in Romero’s cleanest loss, it took Cavalcante surviving a brutal barrage and a hail mary backhand to get the win so let’s not even go down the Yoel Rabbit Hole.
Insight from past fights
David: I’m on some bullshit, so I gotta ask: do you remember Gene Hackman vs. Russell Crowe in The Quick and the Dead? Hackman fancies himself the ultimate badass. He certainly plays that way, taking out peasants and showmen alike with his single-action revolver prowess. He even kills his own son (spoilers). But when it’s time to face off against a real killer, his hands tremble next to the butt of his colt, and he can’t hide the fact that he’s scared shitless. I mention that movie because I can’t help but look through Costa’s resume and think ‘meh.’ This is not to diminish his win over Romero, or pretend like Costa isn’t a legitimate challenge. But a lot of his previous matchups were perfect for him. Even the physics of those matchups favored him: lots of shorter guys who couldn’t easily pivot out. And the one time he faced off against a fighter with some speed, length, and some flash (Uriah Hall), and Costa looked inert at times. Hall’s jab was super effective: even when Hall was just spamming it like a kid on an arcade game his parents were in the middle of making him leave for Monday night meatloaf — and doing nothing else except framing Costa out, Costa looked listless. Hall lost because he’s lost defensively, didn’t move laterally, and so Costa was able to deconstruct him slowly with various body shots (although to Hall’s credit, I think he fought that fight as well as he could have: the rare great performance in defeat). But Hall and Adesanya are different in that Hall can jab well and perform random tricks, whereas Adesanya can jab well and excels everywhere else. In other words, Costa’s gonna have to reveal some new tricks of his own to close the gap.
Phil: Co-sign on the Hall bout- it seems borderline disrespectful to Adesanya to compare him to Hall, a far weaker defensive fighter with infinitely worse cage craft, but it is notable that Hall briefly managed to give Costa fits with that approach. That he got broken down over time was virtually inevitable, but it does speak to a dynamic that I think fuels this fight: Costa must spend accumulated damage to close Adesanya down. The damage he took against Hall was acceptable, as Hall detonated by the cage, as is his wont. Against someone who can pivot out, reset, hand-fight and strike off clinch breaks (or pivot, or both), how much damage does Costa spend, and how many times does he have to do it?
X-Factors
David: There’s so much machismo in the air it’s practically…oh…I see you got to Adesanya’s hypersexual tweet. You’re on point with the 80’s action smelling homoeroticism. The only thing missing is a dog chain choker. Because stuff like this — they’ve got covered.
Phil: Aside from the obvious risk of these two just giving up on the fighting thing and making out in the cage, I think the major X-factor is Costa himself. A relative newcomer to MMA, he’s shown dramatic and impressive improvements while never losing track of what he wants to do. Adesanya has been troubled by doubled shots and lever punchers, and by opponents rolling inside his jab, and training footage from Costa shows him doing exactly these things. I’m excited to see if he can bring them out in the cage.
Prognostication
David: I do think Costa has shown modest progressions in his standup, which was dangerous to begin with. And I think those improvements will factor into the fight. The most important thing Costa has going for him is not the things that he does well, but the things Adesanya doesn’t do well: as you mentioned — namely, the diminishing returns on his movement, and static offense that results. Adesanya can get away with everything as long as his offense is active, but once that offensive activity wanes, he becomes predictable and might as well be the most dangerous bobo doll ever assembled. For a fighter like Costa, who violently but very deliberately selects the best combinations for his punch entries, this feels like a death knell. Still, being a diminished threat is not the same as being an ineffective one. Adesanya’s early output and movement should be enough to frustrate Costa, who won’t experience easy entries. I don’t know how his frustration will manifest, but whether offensive or defensive, angry or focused, I don’t think frustration of any type will work against Israel. Israel Adesanya by Decision.
Phil: I think I have to see more from Costa defensively. He closed down Romero and banged it out with him, but I think it has become increasingly apparent that Romero’s style simply allows that kind of engagement to happen, as he is uninterested in evasive footwork, or lateral movement. I think it’s going to be much harder to push Adesanya to the fence, and Costa will have to take more damage to do it. The later rounds of the Romero fight also showed Costa just trying to walk through hand-fights, and I think Adesanya is more likely to use those engagements to reset neutral ground than to blast Costa in the face. While I’ve been impressed by what I’ve seen coming out of Costa’s training footage, I guess I need to see him pull it off in real time. Israel Adesanya by TKO, round 3.