Former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) middleweight champion Robert Whittaker will look to reclaim the 185-pound crown when he rematches reigning division kingpin Israel Adesanya, who stopped “The Reaper” when they first went to war at UFC 243 back in Oct. 2019. He’ll get that chance in the UFC 271 pay-per-view (PPV) main event, locked and loaded for this Sat. night (Feb. 12, 2022) inside Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, which requires a subscription to ESPN+ to order.
The good news is, you’ll also be getting a heavyweight bang-o-rama between Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa, as well as the middleweight title eliminator pitting Derek Brunson opposite Jared Cannonier. Rounding out the main card will be a bantamweight battle with Kyler Phillips taking on Marcelo Rojo, as well as a lightweight contest featuring Bobby Green against Nasrat Haqparast.
Before we get started, take a look at our comprehensive preview and predictions for all the UFC 271 “Prelims” action, expertly deconstructed by the Russian bot posing as Patrick Stumberg, by clicking here and here. While we’re on the topic of unstable algorithms, be sure to do your fight night homework by studying the UFC 271 odds and betting guide right here.
Let’s talk fights.
185 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (21-1) vs. Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker (23-5)
Robert Whittaker is clearly the second-best middleweight on the planet and has the numbers to back it up. Since abandoning his brutal weight cut to 170 pounds, the 31 year-old “Reaper” has put together a near-perfect record of 11-1 with four knockouts. In addition, Whittaker holds victories over top contenders Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier, who are ranked No. 3 and No. 4 at 185 pounds, respectively. You can argue that Marvin Vettori (No. 2) and Paulo Costa (No. 5) are considerable holes in his otherwise impressive lineup, but I don’t think they’re enough to challenge his place for the division’s No. 1 spot. What makes Whittaker so successful is that aside from his boxing skills, the power-punching Aussie is also a talented wrestler with underrated submissions. There’s simply no place you can take “The Reaper” and expect to have an advantage, unless your name is Israel Adesanya.
“The Last Stylebender” obliterated Whittaker in the UFC 243 main event back in late 2019 and I’m not convinced the ex-champ didn’t fold under pressure in the big spot. Whittaker is typically a very composed combatant and he just looked flat (and a little sloppy) in their first go-round. I’m sure it didn’t help matters that he was facing a master assassin like Adesanya, who supplanted Anderson Silva as the division’s most lethal striker. Adesanya has also left a trail of bodies in his wake and by disposing of Vettori at UFC 263, silenced any talk about his split-decision win over “The Italian Dream” at UFC on FOX 29 back in early 2018. The only loss of Adesanya’s career came against Jan Blachowicz at light heavyweight which did more to demonstrate a need for weight classes than show weaknesses in the game of Adesanya. That said, fighters who want to follow the Polish blueprint may find success in the exhausting championship rounds, when limbs become heavy and action drags to a crawl.
I’m expecting a much better performance from Whittaker in this championship rematch. The skills were always there to make this competitive and based on what we’ve seen across his last three fights, the confidence is there too. It would have been nice to see a finish in his post-Adesanya run, but you can also argue that getting all three rounds gives us a better look at the evolution of “The Reaper.” Will it be enough to reclaim the crown? Probably not. Whittaker may be the better boxer, but Adesanya is the superior all-around striker. It really boils down to the wrestling. Vettori was able to drag the champ to the floor on four separate occasions at UFC 263 — more than Blachowicz did — he just failed to do anything with it. Can Whittaker? That remains to be seen. “The Reaper” is not a monstrous middleweight by any stretch of the imagination (hence the career start at welterweight) and Adesanya has proven difficult to hold down. The good news is, at least for fight fans, we’re likely to get an action-packed fight that will definitely have moments that favor the challenger, I just think Adesanya will do more on the feet than Whittaker can do on the ground, leading to a sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Adesanya def. Whittaker by unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Derek “The Black Beast” Lewis (26-8, 1 NC) vs. Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (13-3)
Derrick Lewis holds the UFC record for knockouts at 13 and you don’t rack up numbers like that by playing it safe. At the same time, the “Black Beast” has turned in his share of stinkers, like his back-to-back snoozers against Blagoy Ivanov and Ilir Latifi. I also thought he folded a little too easily when he battled Ciryl Gane for the interim strap, a suspicion later confirmed by the man himself when he admitted the pressure of fighting for a title in his hometown of Houston turned him inside out. Whatever residual effects that loss had were not present in the UFC Vegas 45 main event, where Lewis planished up-and-coming heavyweight prospect Chris Daukaus. We can’t really say Lewis is “back” after that performance because he never left. “The Black Beast” can be something of a mixed bag when it comes to the big spot and I don’t think that’s going to change this weekend in “The Lone Star State.”
Tai Tuivasa may be one of the most carefree fighters when it comes to elite-level competition. The 28 year-old Aussie doesn’t seem to mind the attention, the spotlights, or the implications each fight has on his longterm career. Instead, “Bam Bam” is there to have fun, crack skulls, and get paid for his efforts. In fact, Tuivasa spent so much time in the UFC 271 buildup talking about Texas barbecue, you would think he’s fighting the ghost of problematic pitmaster John Mueller. One of the best things I can say about Tuivasa is that he went from losing three straight and almost getting cut to winning four in a row — all by way of knockout. This bout is more than just a fan pleaser, it’s a conduit for funneling Tuivasa into the title pool, assuming he’s victorious tomorrow night in Houston. Not bad for a one-dimensional slugger who sips cheap suds from a sweaty shoe, a ritual that as a snobby beer drinker I’ll never understand.
This might be the first time I’ve ever deconstructed a fight and pegged Lewis as the more well-rounded fighter. I know the running gag is that Lewis “doesn’t know how to jiu jitsu,” but consider this stat: Tuivasa boasts 10 fights under the UFC banner and has zero takedowns. In fact, “Bam Bam” has only attempted a takedown three times across a span of 17 rounds and I’m not expecting a fourth against Lewis — though I wouldn’t be surprised to see “Black Beast” initiate the wrestling. His takedown average isn’t great (0.48%) but sometimes wrestling is more about positioning and closing the distance. So who wins? Considering the punching power of both titans, it’s really a 50/50 coin toss. Then again, I know Lewis wants (more than anything) to score a victory in front of his hometown friends and family, particularly after his collapse against Gane, so don’t be surprised to see the “Black Beast” abandon his fist-first offense in favor of a mixed approach, which is likely to befuddle the action-heavy Aussie.
Prediction: Lewis def. Tuivasa by unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Derek Brunson (23-7) vs. Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier (14-5)
Derek Brunson has fought hard (literally) to earn his respect among the 185-pound elite and I’m not sure he’s earned it, which is a shame when you consider the three-time NCAA Division II All-American wrestler has not tasted defeat since getting put away by Israel Adesanya at UFC 230 back in late 2018. I would imagine his strength of schedule is to blame, along with his style of offensive. To wit, Brunson scored nearly 20 takedowns across that five-fight span and let’s be honest, nobody is breaking out the party hats for a pair of decision victories over Kevin Holland and Darren Till, two puffed-up 170 pounders masquerading as middleweights. The rest of his competition? Ian Heinisch, who’s dropped four of his last five, Edmen Shahbazyan, the loser of three straight, and Elias Theodorou, who is no longer with the promotion. Not exactly the stuff of legend. I will, however, credit Brunson for adjusting his style and focusing on the win, the only thing that matters at the end of the day.
There are similar criticisms to be made against Cannonier when you look at his past five appearances, which is why Whittaker was able to score a second go-round against Adesanya. Similar to Brunson, the soon to be 38 year-old Cannonier earned his UFC 271 spot by pushing around Kelvin Gastelum, a determined welterweight contender who failed to replicate his success in the higher weight class. Prior to that decision victory, the “Killa Gorilla” creamed Jack Hermansson, who is not the contender we thought he was, kicked the legs out from under a 40-something Anderson Silva, and melted UFC washout David Branch. I don’t want to make a big deal out of his decision loss to Whittaker because “The Reaper” is currently the second-best middleweight in the promotion and fought an intelligent fight. It’s also worth noting that Cannonier doesn’t come from an athletic background. Instead, the former heavyweight spent three years in the Army, only to get discharged after testing positive for marijuana. That led to a blue collar job with the FAA in Alaska and dreams of one day becoming a UFC fighter.
This bout is not difficult to deconstruct. In 12 fights with UFC, Cannonier has only managed one measly takedown against 17 takedowns scored by his opponents. If David Branch and Jack Hermansson can drag “Killa Gorilla” to the floor, so can Brunson. Also weighing in favor of Brunson is the fact that UFC 271 only affords them 15 minutes to get the job done, so it’s not unrealistic to think he can pull off that annoying jackknife single leg made famous by Johnny Hendricks, where he just holds a limb and rests against the cage until the ref breaks it up. If Jared Cannonier spent this training camp working takedown defense, counters, and conditioning, there’s a pretty good chance he captures this one by knockout. But if he was simply punching the clock and relying on those pyrite stones to fulfill his metaphysical destiny, Brunson is going to take him to the cleaners.
Prediction: Brunson def. Cannonier by unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Kyler “Matrix” Phillips (9-2) vs. Marcelo “The Pitbull” Rojo (16-7)
Kyler Phillips represents the new breed of MMA, joining a jiu-jitsu gym as a scrappy young grade schooler in California and slowly working his way up the ladder. “Matrix” is now a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt who scored a California Southern Section CIF wrestling title at 138 pounds. Those credentials were good enough to land Phillips on Season 1 of Dana White’s “Contender Series” where he managed to score a first-round submission — but no UFC contract. The call-up would come roughly two years later and after a hot start at 3-0, which includes decision victories over Gabriel Silva and Song Yadong, Phillips found himself on the wrong end of a majority decision opposite Raulian Paiva back in July. Considering “Matrix” is still just 26 years old, it’s not unreasonable to think the best is yet to come.
I’m not sure we can have the same outlook for Marcelo Rojo, who turns 34 in just a few months. The Argentinian “Pitbull” made a name for himself as one of the breakout fighters for Combate Americas, racking up a 6-2 record with all six wins coming by way of knockout or submission. Since this is the age of the Internet, more fans probably know him for his bizarre velociraptor walk after railroading Fabian Galvan back in early 2018. Rojo has just one appearance inside the Octagon and I’m sure it’s one the “Pitbull” would like to forget. Veteran featherweight Charles Jourdain ended things violently in the final frame of their March 2021 affair, though I should point out that Rojo was ahead on the scorecards prior to his third round collapse. Though he’s not unschooled on the ground, Rojo — who started training at just 16 years old — is primarily a striker and earned his “Pitbull” nickname for being so aggressive in the boxing gym.
Rojo is an exciting fighter to watch and will undoubtedly come ready for war this weekend in Houston. My biggest concern for Rojo — aside from the fact that he’s got seven career defeats — is that Phillips has scored nearly a dozen takedowns in five fights with UFC, a number that I expect to grow on Saturday. The Argentinian has long, lanky limbs for his weight class and I believe it’s only a matter of time before the young and hungry “Matrix” snatches one and secures the tap.
Prediction: Phillips def. Rojo by submission
155 lbs.: “King” Bobby Green (28-12-1) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (13-4)
Bobby Green migrated from Strikeforce back in early 2013, making his Octagon debut with a submission victory over rugged wrestler Jacob Volkmann at UFC 156, part of a torrid 4-0 start with the promotion that includes wins over durable competition like James Krause and Josh Thomson, among others. That streak was good enough to land Green at No. 7 in the lightweight rankings, the last time he would see the Top 10 while competing for UFC. What followed was a 5-7 record with one draw and Green, now 35, has dropped two of his last three. The good news is, “King” is coming off a technical knockout victory over Al Iaquinta at UFC 268 last November, so perhaps we shouldn’t close the book just yet.
Nasrat Haqparast jumped out to an 8-1 start on the International circuit, catching the eye of UFC talent scouts and securing a deal in late 2017. The German lightweight would falter in his Octagon debut, going down on points to Polish submission specialist Marcin Held, but Haqparast has since gone on to capture five of his last seven. That said, last September’s loss to No. 8-ranked Dan Hooker may be an indication that Haqparast does not belong in the Top 10, at least at this stage of his combat sports career. Working in his favor is the fact that Haqparast is just 26 years old and still has several years to reach his fighting prime. Plenty of UFC champions were late bloomers, like Michael Bisping and Charles Oliveira, so it’s poor form to start writing people off before they get a chance to blossom.
It’s hard to know what to expect from Green on any given night. Sometimes he fights like a hungry title contender, other times he’s clowning around inside the cage and making a fool of himself. “King” was a standout wrestler in high school and he’s proven to be dangerous on the feet, blasting his way into double-digit knockouts with his destruction of Iaquinta. It’s also worth mentioning that Green never seems to stick with one coach and already retired once in his career, so I have to wonder how much of him still wants this. That stands in stark contrast to Haqparast, who doesn’t have the same family responsibilities as Green and remains a constant under Firas Zahabi at Tristar gym in Montreal. It’s difficult to match the “King’s” well-traveled background and his hands remains a threat, I just think this fight sees youth overcome experience.
Prediction: Haqparast def. Green by unanimous decision
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 271 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
For more news and notes on UFC 271 be sure to visit our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated, revised, and finalized “Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.