A detailed breakdown of the position-by-position statistics to watch out for in Saturday’s UFC 284 fight card from Perth, Australia.
UFC 284 heads back to Australia this Saturday for a highly anticipated #1 vs. #2 battle in the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings. It was this close to being a champion vs. champion matchup with both undefeated in Zuffa competition, had Islam Makhachev not been caught by Adriano Martins over seven years ago. Since then he’s been on a tear, winning with statistical domination measures over 90% in seven of his last 11 fights.
The featherweight titleholder and lightweight challenger Alexander Volkanovski is undefeated in the UFC and looking to move into rarified double champ air if he can overcome his +300 odds (as of this writing) and claim a second belt at the end of the night.
So let’s jump into all of the numbers.
Remember, what you’re about to read are not official UFC statistics. They’re alternative stats generated from official statistics and designed to (1) give more weight to the recent present than the distant past and (2) minimize the effects of one huge or horrible performance more quickly as time goes by. See the notes at the bottom for definitions of certain statistics.
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
The first thing that jumps off the page when glancing at the statistical matchup for this fight is positioning. Volkanovski spends almost four of every five minutes operating in the open space of distance while Makhachev is there for only 1:40. This isn’t because Makhachev is a takedown attempt machine. He’s actually a less active distance takedown artist than the typical lightweight, with 1.2 takedown attempts per five minutes in the position (p5m) versus a 1.4 average. And in the clinch, Makhachev’s active with 7.7 takedown attempts p5m, but his rate isn’t too much higher than Volkanovski’s 6.7 and the average lightweight’s 5.1.
The key for Makhachev’s positioning boils down to two things: (1) his completion percentage and (2) his ability to keep opponents from getting back to their feet. At distance, Makhachev’s success rate is double that of Volkanovski and the average lightweight, and in the clinch he completes an impressive 64% (46% average, 38% Volkanovski). Once his opponents are on their backs, Makhachev’s grappling is a nightmare for getting back up. An average lightweight stands back up 2.4 times for every five minutes being controlled. When it’s Makhachev on top, that number drops to a miniscule 0.6.
Essentially, when Makhachev sees an opening for top position, he’s been masterful at both achieving it and then keeping it.
Everything’s been very Makhachev focused so far, and rightfully so, but don’t forget there are two champions in this fight. On Volkanovski’s side, his takedown defense has been solid, but not impenetrable. He’s succumbed to 19% of his opponents’ distance takedown attempts and 31% from the clinch (30% and 46% lightweight averages). Where he’s absolutely excelled is at getting back to his feet. Volkanovski doesn’t hang out on his back for very long unless Brian Ortega’s got a mounted guillotine on him. When his back hits the canvas, he scrambles to stand up an exceptional 10.7 times per five minutes being controlled.
That should make for an interesting data clash to watch out for on Saturday: Makhachev’s 0.6 standups allowed p5m versus Volkanovski’s 10.7 standups completed.
Don’t sleep on the possibility of Volkanovski taking Makhachev down either. While it’s never happened from distance, two separate opponents have been able to get Makhachev to the ground from the clinch and, once there, he’s been much more willing to remain on his back than Volkanovski, with a standup rate of 2.1. When it comes to the positioning for a possible clinch takedown, Volkanovski’s been the controlling fighter 76% of the time while Makhachev’s only had cage control 41% of his clinch time. Keep in mind these numbers could easily be a little misleading since Volkanovski’s moving up in weight to fight a bigger opponent, but when doing a statistical preview, we have to go off data from the past.
If the fight stays at distance for very long, it could be a fun matchup. Not fun in a high-volume, barnburner type of way, but in the skillful execution of each fighter’s approach to striking. Volkanovski’s volume is about average for a lightweight while Makhachev throws power strikes at a roughly average rate, but he rarely attacks or distracts with head jabs.
Instead, Makhachev excels at the art of hitting and not getting hit. Volkanovski does as well but to a slightly lesser extent. Makhachev’s power strike differential comes in at +9.1 with Volkanovski not too far behind at +6.6. They each land exactly 54% of their distance power strikes although Makhachev does it largely as a headhunter while Volkanovski changes up his targeting to the legs five times more p5m.
Yet it’s on defense where Makhachev really gains his edge in differential. When opponents attack his head with power, only 14% land (33% for Volkanovski). When they lower their level and go for Makhachev’s body, they land an embarrassingly low 38% (67% for Volkanovski).
That’s an incredibly rare defensive statistic.
Perhaps Makhachev’s opponents target the body more in an attempt to create fewer takedown lanes. Whatever the reason, their poor results give Makhachev a solid power differential and could also help explain his 48% power strike accuracy to opponents’ heads (29% average).
Volkanovski’s no striking slouch, though. While he’s not a volume striker, his stats are solid. His power differential and targeting mixture to the legs have already been noted. Add in a +4.3 head jab differential and 5-to-1 knockdown ratio (4-to-1 if you only care about knockdown rounds since it’s sometimes easy to knock a rocked opponent down a second time) and you’ve got yourself a talented striker. He’s ranked #1 on the pound-for-pound list for a reason.
Will Volkanovski’s talents be enough to find an edge to exploit against a bigger, incredibly skilled opponent? I can’t wait to find out.
Bring on the glorious fights!
Statistical Notes: Strike attempts are per an entire five minute round in each position (p5m) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Knockdown round percentage is the percentage of rounds with at least one knockdown. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position or the opponent’s back.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes Sports. He was also formerly licensed as a referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.