Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight hitters Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker will go to war this weekend (Sat., Oct. 21, 2023) at UFC 294 inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Ankalaev’s career has gone down some rather strange side tracks for an obviously elite contender. Instead of becoming a champion — the most likely outcome given his clear abilities — the Russian talent has somehow lost to Paul Craig, fought Ion Cutelaba twice, and gone to a split-draw with Jan Blachowicz. Weirdness aside, he’s unbeaten in his last ten fights and could well be the best fighter at 205 lbs.
The question on the other side of the equation is the potential of Walker 2.0? The Brazilian has used better strategy to take advantage of his rounded skill set rather than raw athleticism, and he’s put together three straight wins as a result. Still, he’s a significant underdog here, so all that change will be put to the test.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Magomed Ankalaev
Record: 18-1-1
Key Wins: Anthony Smith (UFC 277), Volkan Oezdemir (UFC 267), Thiago Santos (UFC Vegas 50), Nikita Krylov (UFC Vegas 20), Ion Cutelaba (UFC 254, UFC Fight Night 169), Dalcha Lungiambula (UFC Fight Night 163)
Key Losses: Paul Craig (UFC Fight Night 127)
Keys to Victory: Ankalaev is a Sambo ace, but he’s not the typical grinder. Sure, he can throw opponents to the floor and pulverize them from top position, but he’s just as likely to pick them apart and score the finish via sharp counter punching.
In this bout, both are viable options. I’ll be honest here: I think Ankalaev is significantly better pretty much everywhere. In the past, I would say that the risk of getting clipped by a flying knee or other wild shot was still significant, but Walker doesn’t really do anything too crazy anymore.
He fights technically now, but he’s less technical than Ankalaev.
All the same, the takedown feels like the safest path to victory. Walker cannot handle Ankalaev’s best shots well, so if the Russian drags him down, the fight is going to change. Either Walker is going to feel the fatigue and damage fro his punishing ground strikes, or those shots will finish him outright.
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Johnny Walker
Record: 21-7
Key Wins: Anthony Smith (UFC Charlotte), Paul Craig (UFC 283), Misha Cirkunov (UFC 235), Ryan Spann (UFC Vegas 11), Khalil Rountree Jr (UFC Fight Night 140), Ion Cutelaba (UFC 279)
Key Losses: Jamahal Hill (UFC Vegas 48), Corey Anderson (UFC 244), Nikita Krylov (UFC Fight Night 170), Thiago Santos (UFC Vegas 38)
Keys to Victory: Walker still feels like he’s in the transition period between freak athlete knockout artist and technical range kicker. Regardless, he’s a physically gifted Light Heavyweight who can strike, wrestle, and grapple — that automatically puts him in the Top 10!
My concern here is the idea that Walker can low kick Ankalaev for three rounds without getting creamed by a counter at some point. It just doesn’t feel likely. Walker has never shown the defense or discipline necessary to survive that long with a striker that dangerous.
Perhaps its a hot take, but I feel Walker needs to get aggressive here. He has to try to hurt the Russian, even if counter punching is one of Ankalaev’s strengths. If Walker can hurt his opponent — and he absolutely has the capability to stun Ankalaev — then he can really change the dynamic.
Walker is one of the best at catching an opponent when they get desperate and predictable. If he can make Ankalaev uncomfortable, his chances at scoring the upset skyrocket, but that’s unlikely to happen in a range kicking battle.
Bottom Line
This bout could determine the next 205-pound title contender.
By all rights, Ankalaev deserves another shot at gold. If he wins here, that should be fairly guaranteed. Unfortunately for him, Jamahal Hill also undoubtedly deserves a title fight upon his return. Depending on how that all times out, Ankalaev could be next-in-line to fight the winner of Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka, or he could find himself forced to fight again.
As for Walker, he’s the wild card. Ending Ankalaev’s unbeaten run is a huge deal, certainly title shot worthy. The Hill timeline question remains in effect, however, especially since “Sweet Dreams” put Walker to sleep in 2022.
At UFC 294, Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker will square off. Which man earns the victory?