Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight rivals Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski will face off for the second time TODAY (Sat., Oct. 21, 2023) at UFC 294 inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Makhachev is riding arguably the best win streak in MMA right now, a 12-fight tear that saw him largely dominate the competition to capture and defend the Lightweight crown. In that time, Volkanovski challenged him far more seriously than anyone else, so perhaps its fitting that an instant rematch ended up being next for the Russian.
Of course, Volkanovski himself is really putting it on the line here as well by taking this fight on such short-notice. His odds are winning the rematch did not improve by jumping on this opportunity, but at least he guarantees himself a second shot at Makhachev.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
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Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images
Islam Makhachev
Record: 24-1
Key Wins: Alexander Volkanovski (UFC 284), Charles Oliveira (UFC 280), Arman Tsarukyan (UFC Fight Night 149), Dan Hooker (UFC 267), Bobby Green (UFC Vegas 49), Drew Dober (UFC 259), Thiago Moises (UFC Vegas 31), Gleison Tibau (UFC 220)
Key Losses: Adriano Martins (UFC 192)
Keys to Victory: Makhachev’s performance last time out against Volkanovski was undoubtedly the best kickboxing showing of his entire career, but wrestling remains his forte above all else.
Last time out, Makhachev was surprised by Volkanovski’s ability to fight him off in the clinch, as well as the Australian’s habit of scrambling out before he could take the back. These two patterns repeated on several occasions, even if Makhachev did score a significant amount of back control time overall.
I’d like to see more shots below the waist from Makhachev in the rematch, because that was his best weapon in pulling Volkanovski to the canvas. When “The Great” goes to scramble, Makhachev should take Khabib’s advice and start working up towards the mount, rather than focusing so heavily on the back take.
A few heavy shots from that position could change the dynamic drastically. Plus, the longer the grappling exchanges, the more Volkanovski’s short-notice gas tank will be tested.
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Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images
Alexander Volkanovski
Record: 26-2
Key Wins: Max Holloway (UFC 276, UFC 251, UFC 245), Yair Rodriguez (UFC 290), Brian Ortega (UFC 266), Jose Aldo (UFC 237), Chad Mendes (UFC 232), Chan Sung Jung (UFC 273)
Key Losses: Islam Makhachev (UFC 290)
Keys to Victory: Volkanovski is an expert strategist with plus skills in every area. He always brings the right game plan into fights, and he’s made it a habit to make great fighters look very ordinary.
In the first fight, Volkanovski defended against Makhachev’s grappling better than pretty much anyone else. There’s more he can do to expand upon that, but the bigger issue was that Makhachev won far more of the kickboxing than anyone expected. Against such a bigger opponent, Volkanovski relied heavily upon his shifting right hand in a way that became predictable, and he ate some heavy shots as a result.
Covering that gap will never be easy, but Volkanovski has to switch it up a bit more. In the last fight, he found great success with low kicks, so perhaps he could also use his low kick to start combinations rather than just end them. Another idea would be purposefully firing combinations to finish in the clinch, an area where he actually scored control time of his own. Crashing into the clinch on his terms could be a fairly safe way to then dirty box and break back to distance, though he’d have to do so carefully.
Bottom Line
It’s a really intriguing rematch with wild circumstances.
Makhachev has an opportunity to clear any potential controversy here. Regardless of the circumstances, pummeling Volkanovski in quick fashion will erase the rivalry and allow Makhachev to move onto bigger and better things. He’s been vocal about chasing Welterweight gold, so perhaps one or two more title defenses earns him that opportunity.
As for Volkanovski, now is the time to gamble. At 35 years of age, Volkanovski is likely to start slowing down sooner than later — why not take a chance while he’s still at the absolute height of his power? If he pulls this off, it’s an all-time great championship win, a legacy securing victory that moves him up the best ever lists in a significant manner.
At UFC 294, Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski will go to war a second time. Who walks away with the Lightweight belt?