Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight finishers Shavkat Rakhmonov and Stephen Thompson will duel this weekend (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023) at UFC 296 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
It’s hard not to speak in superlatives when discussing Rakhmonov. “The Nomad” is ridiculous! He’s downright nasty at every aspect of MMA, a ruthless finisher that is surging up the Welterweight ladder. Sure, he got cracked a few times by Geoff Neal … but he also battered and finished one of the division’s best strikers, so how serious is that criticism again? As for “Wonderboy,” he’s still a remarkably special fighter, even at 40 years of age. There are pretty much no other strikers remotely like Thompson, and that unique style means that Thompson can still give elite opposition hard fights given the right match up.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
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Shavkat Rakhmonov
Record: 17-0
Key Wins: Geoff Neal (UFC 285), Neil Magny (UFC 285), Alex Oliveira (UFC 254), Michel Prazeres (UFC Vegas 30), Carlson Harris (UFC Vegas 47)
Key Losses: None
Keys To Victory: Rakhmonov is a monster. A massive Welterweight with incredible conditioning and durability, Rakhmonov is a gnarly kickboxer who breaks his opponents down with punishing bodywork and combinations. Oh, and he’s a top-notch wrestler with a bunch of finishes via submission too!
“Wonderboy” wants Shavkat to stand with him so badly, and I’m sure that the Kazakh athlete will … for a time. It would just be silly for Rakhmonov to do anything but implement his immense grappling edge. He’s not a lay-and-pray fighter anyway, so a finish is still on the table even if he wrestles!
The strategy here couldn’t be any more obvious. Rakhmonov should be looking to herd Thompson near the fence with his body work and kicks. As soon as Thompson’s back hits the black line near the outskirts of the Octagon, it’s time to change levels and start to grind.
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Stephen Thompson
Record: 16-6-1
Key Wins: Rory MacDonald (UFC Fight Night 89), Jorge Masvidal (UFC 217), Robert Whittaker (UFC 178), Vicente Luque (UFC 244), Johny Hendricks (UFC Fight Night 82), Geoff Neal (UFC Vegas 17), Kevin Holland (UFC Orlando)
Key Losses: Belal Muhammad (UFC Vegas 45), Gilbert Burns (UFC 264), Tyron Woodley (UFC 211), Anthony Pettis (UFC Fight Night 148)
Keys to Victory: Thompson’s movement, kicking game, and counter punching skill are still world-class. He’s a master striker, and he still carries plenty of pop in his shots. The problem is that as he’s aged, Thompson has become easier to manhandle with takedowns.
There’s no easy solution for aging. Half-a-decade ago, Thompson was a touch quicker and even more evasive, and his strength held up better in clinch exchanges. That’s just the way it is!
Still, he has a chance here. Thompson has never been easy to track down, and Rakhmonov isn’t usually the type to grind for shots anyway. Thompson has to commit hard to his movement and really seek to frustrate Rakhmonov, a naturally aggressive fighter. If Thompson has to cut his volume and keep his feet moving to draw combinations from Rakhmonov, it’s worth a few boos from the crowd.
Rakhmonov will attack. It’s in his nature. If Thompson can pick his moments carefully, he can try to find openings without exposing himself to the takedown in the process.
Bottom Line
Finally, ranked Welterweights are fighting one another again.
I’ll be transparent: I’m fully on board the Shavkat Rakhmonov hype train. I’m not predicting a 10-fight title reign — the man takes chances — but there’s not a head-to-head match up I wouldn’t favor “Nomad” in. The sooner we get that man in a title fight, the better!
Is a win over Thompson enough? Maybe. Rakhmonov’s highlight reel is certainly more interesting than Belal Muhammad’s, even if “Remember The Name” still has the better win streak overall. Ultimately, his name is in the immediate mix with a win, and it remains to be seen how the division shakes out.
“Wonderboy” wants his own last run at gold. Victory here would increase his odds significantly, even if the fairly recent losses to Muhammad and Gilbert Burns are still holding him back. Handing Rakhmonov his first loss would be huge though, setting up a title eliminator next for the former title challenger.
At UFC 296, Shavkat Rakhmonov and Stephen Thompson will throw down. Which man will earn the victory?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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