Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will kick off its 2024 pay-per-view (PPV) campaign with the UFC 297 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, headlined by the middleweight title fight pitting reigning division kingpin, Sean Strickland, and No. 2-ranked title contender, Dricus Du Plessis. The action gets underway this Sat. night (Jan. 20, 2024) inside Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, with former 185-pound titleholder Israel Adesanya sitting cageside, undoubtedly to set up a UFC 300 PPV showdown this April in Las Vegas.
Before we break down the five-fight PPV main card, which also features a women’s bantamweight title fight between Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva — with the winner moving on to face Julianna Pena later this year — be sure to take a closer look at our comprehensive preview and predictions for this weekend’s preliminary undercard action on ESPNN and ESPN+ by clicking here and here. The latest UFC 297 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Strickland vs. Du Plessis” PPV lineup can be located here.
Let’s take a look at what the PPV main card has in store for us this weekend in Toronto.
185 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Sean “Tarzan” Strickland (28-5) vs. Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis (20-2)
One of the more challenging aspects of breaking down any Sean Strickland fight is separating the character from the fighter. Outside the cage, “Tarzan” is the village idiot, a self-absorbed man-child with no filter and a platform to spew … whatever nutty thing he happens to be thinking about. Inside the cage, he’s a surprisingly effective striker with a higher percentage of significant striking defense (65.4%) than any middleweight currently signed to the UFC roster. Strickland is also ranked fifth all time in significant strikes landed with 982 and has a solid wrestling base, which he used to shut down the flashy striking of Uriah Hall in summer 2021. If you look at Strickland’s record, his stats are impressive. His level of competition prior to UFC 293 … not so much. So the question becomes, did he finally turn the corner and realize his true potential with a breakout performance against Israel Adesanya? Or did “The Last Stylebender” have a bad day at the office and fail to recover after getting rocked in the first round? Expect this fight to answer that question.
“Here’s the thing about Dricus, he ain’t f****** Izzy — Dricus likes to fight,” Strickland said at the UFC 297 press conference (watch it here). “He likes to fight and he’s a hell of a fight. Do you know what that means? We’re going to be d*** to d***, nipple to nipple in that range f****** fighting. I hope after we’re done, win or lose, we’re f****** bloody and we put on a show for you f****** guys. Applaud him and encourage him. Because we want a f****** war! Real talk you guys, me and Dricus, we’re going to try to f****** kill each other for you guys. Dricus, can I get an agreement to the f****** death? To the f****** death! Godd*** respect him for that.”
Dricus Du Plessis, like Strickland, had a great record against not-so-great opposition before scoring a career-changing knockout over former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker. In fact, his finish over “The Reaper” marks his only victory over a middleweight currently ranked in the Top 15, so we’re back to asking the same question we had for Strickland. Good day for Du Plessis, or bad day for Whittaker? A lot has been said about the way “Stillknocks” fights and it’s almost comical to watch, from a technical perspective, but you certainly can’t argue with the results. The South African striker has the kind of strength and power you would expect to find at heavyweight, while retaining the speed and athleticism of a welterweight. If he has a gameplan he probably leaves it in the locker room, because his offense is just plain ugly. Again, it ain’t broke, so there’s no reason to fix it. We also can’t overlook his grappling credentials and it would be foolish to discount what he’s capable of on the ground. Go check out that video of Du Plessis dismantling an entire Gracie Barra team by himself if you’re not convinced, footage that also serves as a testament to his long-range cardio.
Adesanya picked “Stillknocks” to win by submission.
“I am happy to hear when someone thinks I am going to win, even though we have our difference as people, as one more to another,” Du Plessis said at the UFC 297 media day (watch it here). “But as fighters, I can only say good things about Adesanya the fighter. He has had some terrible fights where he has won the fight running and all of that. But he has had some amazing fights. Some of the best fights we have seen. And he has had some of the best striking performances the UFC has ever seen. But that is a martial artist recognizing another. And in that case it is great to see someone like that know you have what it takes.”
This is a difficult fight to predict because both fighters are so … unpredictable. Strickland has the kind of jab that was tailor made for a bull-in-a-china-shop attack that we so often see from Du Plessis, just as “Stillknocks” can follow the blueprint set by Jared Cannonier to take away the champion’s mojo. When push comes to shove, I think Du Plessis is going to do more damage, but Strickland is going to win more rounds. Look for “Tarzan” to survive an early scare, then settle in and use Eric Nicksick’s brains to get him through the rest of the five-round fight.
Prediction: Strickland def. Du Plessis by decision
135 lbs.: Raquel “Rocky” Pennington (15-8) vs. Mayra “Sheetara” Bueno Silva (10-2-1, 1 NC) for the vacant bantamweight title
Raquel Pennington has quietly amassed five straight wins over the last three years, good enough to land her at No. 2 in the women’s bantamweight rankings. Of her five losses in UFC, all five have come against former champions. With former 135-pound titleholder Julianna Pena sidelined with injury, the promotion will send Pennington into battle against Brazilian bruiser Mayra Bueno Silva, with the winner laying claim to the vacant division strap. “Sheetara” has been critical of this pairing, insisting the fans are being punished because “Rocky” is boring and Pena is easy money. That’s pretty big talk from a combatant who was beaten by Maryna Moroz and Manon Fiorot — and is not long removed from a failed drug test that cost her a victory over Holly Holm.
“She’s a character,” Pennington said at the UFC 297 media day (watch it here). “At the end of the day, she’s talking all the crap and saying all the things, and sure, maybe the fans want to see her fight Julianna because they yap a lot. That’s just not who I am, and I think about the kids and the younger generation looking up to me. I’ve been in this sport for a very long time, and I’ve been top 10 for the majority of my career in the UFC. For her to sit here, they were trying to find another opponent because Julianna is injured. It was supposed to be me and Julianna. So for her to think that it was supposed to be her and Julianna, I love the world she’s living in her own mind, but she’s a little confused.”
Silva has only one victory by way of technical knockout and that came via retirement on the regional circuit in São Paulo back in early 2016. Her biggest threat is her submission game but that requires the fight to go south, which won’t be so easy against Pennington. “Rocky” is ranked No. 10 all time in takedown defense and holds multiple striking records, including total strikes landed at 1310. She’s also landed more significant strikes than Amanda Nunes (922), good enough for second place, and comes in at No. 3 all time in striking defense (62%). That’s a pretty tough hill for a non-striker to climb and it may be easier for Pennington to shuck off the takedowns than it is for Silva to avoid getting pieced up on the feet. Let’s also point out that Silva’s last three wins came over opponents who are a combined 8-16 in UFC and were unranked at the time of their bouts. If the best case we can make for “Sheetara” is a “No Contest” over a 42 year-old Holm, then Pennington feels like a pretty solid pick for new champion.
Prediction: Pennington def. Silva by decision
170 lbs.: Neil “Haitan Sensation” Magny (28-11) vs. “Proper” Mike Malott (10-1-1)
Neil Magny has registered 31 fights inside the Octagon, not including his exhibition bouts on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), which puts him at No. 10 on the all-time list, right behind Diego Sanchez and Charles Oliveira, who both have 32. During his 11 years under the UFC banner, the 36 year-old “Haitian Sensation” has bounced around the Top 15 and scored just enough big wins (including two over former division champions) to keep himself in the welterweight mix. That said, recent losses to Gilbert Burns and Ian Garry, as well as Shavkat Rakhmonov, have made it clear that Magny has a definitive ceiling in the 170-pound weight class. He also has the most decision victories in the history of the promotion, so don’t expect to see any one-punch knockouts from the former New Yorker. What you can expect is a tough, durable competitor with solid wrestling and sneaky submissions.
“It’s definitely not the plan to find myself in this position over and over again,” Magny said at the UFC 297 media day (watch it here). “The goal is definitely to move forward that I keep advancing and keep doing my thing, but that stuff happens. It’s the way this part plays out. If you lose a ranked fight, you fall back in the rankings and you kind of have to win yourself back into position to call someone above and keep climbing and moving forward. I feel like there’s a lot on the line. It’s a main card fight in Canada fighting a Canadian guy in his home turf. The bar is definitely set up pretty high for me to go out there and get it done. I have to go out there and make a statement like, ‘Nope, I’m not going away anytime soon.’”
Mike Malott has been a pleasant surprise in a division overpopulated with familiar faces. The 32 year-old Canadian didn’t look like much after bouncing around the B-leagues from 2014-2020, registering a knockout loss for World Series of Fighting (which later became PFL) and a draw for Bellator MMA. That all changed with his first-round finish over Shimon Smotritsky on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2021, which Malott parlayed into a three-fight winning streak — with all three fights ending by way of knockout or submission. Sounds great on paper, but Mickey Gall dropped four of his last six before getting the boot, while Yohan Lainesse and Adam Fugitt both have losing records in UFC. Suddenly those three straight wins don’t sound as impressive. Magny is not the world’s most spectacular fighter, but he’s shared the cage with some of the best welterweights in the world and in some cases, emerged victorious. Expect that trend to continue this weekend in Toronto.
Prediction: Magny def. Malott by decision
185 lbs.: Chris “Action Man” Curtis (30-10, 1 NC) vs. Marc-Andre “Power Bar” Barriault (16-6, 1 NC)
Chris Curtis has some work to do if he wants to escape the shadow of Sean Strickland, which is kind of hard to do considering he co-hosts a podcast with “Tarzan.” Over the last two years, the self-proclaimed “Action Man” has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons — like whining over his spot in the lineup, screaming about the Kelvin Gastelum loss, and deleting his social media accounts. Where is the middleweight killer who stiffened Phil Hawes and smoked Brendan Allen? Curtis, who turns 37 in July, is coming off a “No Contest” against Nassourdine Imavov at UFC 289 after a clash of heads left him busted open (see the gash here). Instead of running it back, the Ohioan will instead throw down against unranked Canadian bruiser Marc-Andre Barriault, a hometown favorite who will no doubt test the “Action Man’s” chin.
“I’m someone who is very hard on himself,” Curtis said at the UFC 297 media day (watch it here). “I’ve always been hard on myself. I’ve always wanted to be better than the guy next to me, even when I’m not. It eats me up inside. I think the big issue for me, the Nassourdine fight was such a dumb fight for me – all of my coaches and managers were like, ‘You should probably take some time after the Kelvin fight.’ It was a really hard camp mentally. Physically I was beat up from the camp, but more so than anything, mentally I was f*cking tired, bro. I was frustrated. I beat myself up that camp, then for it to go down that way in a fight that I thought came down to one moment in the second round, it freakin’ crushed me. To immediately go into another fight, everyone around me was like, ‘Chris, we should probably wait a little bit.’ But I’ve been known my entire life for making bad choices and not listening. Instead of taking time to refresh and come to grips with stuff, I’m like, ‘I’ll just jump back in and do sh*t.’
After racking up an 11-1 record on the International circuit, the 33 year-old Barriault crossed over to UFC and nearly ended his Octagon run before it ever got started. “Power Bar” compiled three straight losses right out of the gate, but managed to rebound with a win over Oskar Piechota — which then got overturned by the commission when Barriault flunked for Ostarine. In the three years following that misstep, the Quebecer is 5-2 with three finishes and is coming off back-to-back wins over Julian Marquez and Eryk Anders. If you’re a Barriault fan, your biggest concern heading into this fight in the wrestling, since “Power Bar” has been outwrestled 21-2 in his UFC career. Fortunately, Curtis has yet to score a takedown in UFC but considering he trains at Xtreme Couture and mixes it up with some pretty good wrestler in camp, I have to imagine it’s still a big part of his gameplan. Kinda hard to look a gift horse in the mouth in a sport where it only takes one blow to end a fight.
Sorry boo birds, but Curtis needs a win in a big way and I believe he’ll do whatever it takes to secure it.
Prediction: Curtis def. Barriault by decision
145 lbs.: “Almighty” Arnold Allen (19-2) vs. Movsar Evloev (17-0)
Fast-rising featherweight prospect Arnold Allen was riding a 12-fight win streak with five finishes and was already in the title conversation … right up until matchmakers decided to pair him off against former 145-pound titleholder Max Holloway. I’m sure I don’t need to remind anyone that “Blessed” is the second-best fighter in the division, sitting just below division champion Alex Volkanovski, and has only lost to “The Great” over the last decade of featherweight competition. I guess that’s why the promotion spared Ilia Topuria the Hawaiian litmus test because the division is rapidly running out of viable contenders.
Getting back to Allen, the 29 year-old Englishman is a formidable wrestler when he wants to be and has fight-ending power in his fists. Unfortunately, he’s been known to take his foot off the gas or play it a little too safe at times, leading to some ho-hum decisions over the last couple of years. His promotional package is still leading with the Dan Hooker performance, since we didn’t learn a whole lot when Calvin Kattar self destructed at UFC Vegas 63, but Allen’s performance against Holloway does raise a new batch of questions about his potential as a future champion.
“I want to be world champion, and I think this is the fight that puts me back into the title picture,” Allen said at the UFC 297 media day (watch it here). “After the Holloway fight, I was asking for [Brian] Ortega. Same thing I was saying earlier, he was a fight I thought was easier than these guys down the line, and he was a higher-ranked guy, so it made sense. I don’t want easy matchups. This guy is tougher. He’s undefeated and wants to prove his own claim at a title, and I want to show I’m still there in that picture.”
Movsar Evloev faced many of the same questions as Allen during his meteoric rise from M-1 mauler to bona fide Top 10 UFC featherweight. The 29 year-old Russian remains undefeated at 17-0, which looks great on paper, but he’s yet to score a finish in seven trips to the Octagon. Prior to joining UFC? Evloev finished seven of his 10 wins, which tells me he had it pretty easy on the International circuit. And if you think that’s too harsh, consider that one of Evloev’s victories came over the 7-28 Aleksander Krupenkin, who is currently mired in a nine-fight losing streak and has been finished 20 times in his MMA career.
To his credit, Evloev is coming off a “Fight of the Night” performance against submission wunderkind Diego Lopes and racked up a staggering 33 takedowns in seven UFC fights. Only Mike Grundy, a decorated freestyle wrestler who took bronze at the Commonwealth Games, was able to keep from being taken down. Since Allen is not the wrestler that Grundy is, I would expect Evloev to resort to his bread-and-butter while avoiding Allen’s power shots. Working against “All In” is the fact that he’s only got 15 minutes to work, and judges love takedowns, so Evloev only needs to score a couple at the right time to win the rounds. It may not be pretty, but winning ugly is still winning.
Prediction: Evloev def. Allen by decision
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 297 fight card right RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPNN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
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