UFC 299 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 299, which is set to hit Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

The Octagon once again leaves the comfort of the UFC APEX in “Sin City,” migrating south to Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., for UFC 299, where Sean O’Malley will battle long-time rival, Marlon Vera, once again this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) atop a truly special pay-per-view (PPV) card. In UFC 299’s electric co-main event, surging Lightweight contender, Benoit Saint-Denis, locks horns with fellow Southpaw wrecking machine, Dustin Poirier, in a pivotal Lightweight showdown, while human highlight-reel, Michael “Venom” Page, makes his long-awaited Octagon debut opposite outspoken veteran, Kevin Holland.

It’s a doozy of a show, one bursting with the potential for profit. Here’s how to capitalize …

What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 87?

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

It was going so well until … it wasn’t. Al-Selwady was in full control of the striking and was even overpowering Loik Radzhabov’s wrestling as “Jaguar Paw” ran out of steam, but those telegraphed kicks finally cost him. I’d mentioned before that Al-Selwady’s previous knockout losses were from monstrous shots and expressed confidence that his chin was plenty sturdy after standing up to George Hardwick. In hindsight, that confidence wound up misplaced — and to add insult to injury — Al-Selwady went down too early in the third round for the Over 2.5 to hit.

What Went Right?

Eryk Anders, Christian Leroy Duncan, Steve Erceg and Vitor Petrino

Anders tried to beef it by walking into Jamie Pickett’s right hand and Petrino sleepwalked through most of his fight, but all parties still got it done without controversy.

Perez/Mokaev Over 2.5 and Basharat/Zahabi Over 2.5

Bless Mokaev’s and Basharat’s questionable finishing skills.

UFC 299 Odds For The Undercard:

Maryna Moroz (-230) vs. Joanne Wood (+190)

Leave this one be — both women have underwhelmed of late.

Assu Almabayev (-455) vs. CJ Vergara (+350)

Use Almabayev if you need that little bit of extra juice in a parlay. Vergara is among the worst Flyweights on the roster and has no answer for Almabaev’s top game.

Robelis Despaigne (-345) vs. Josh Parisian (+250)

Hear me out: Robelis Despaigne has less than six minutes of professional fight time and his four opponents to date had a grand total of one win between them. Parisian has almost six times the fight experience and a willingness to wrestle, which should pay dividends considering Despaigne apparently doesn’t know how to break out of a body lock. Despaigne could still spark him in seconds, but Parisian is durable enough to merit a flyer.

Michel Pereira (-148) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+124)

Definitely give me Pereira at these odds. He’s too mobile for Oleksiejczuk to chase down and he wrestles well enough to punch clean through Oleksiejczuk’s abysmal takedown defense. For all his flaws and out-of-cage foibles, Pereira’s been extremely consistent since the Diego Sanchez fiasco and has the style to give Oleksiejczuk fits, so he gets my vote.

Ion Cutelaba (-135) vs. Philipe Lins (+114)

I think Lins wins more often than not, but as I’ve said before, betting on a Cutelaba fight is just asking for disaster.

Kyler Phillips (-238) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+195)

A moderate bet on Phillips makes sense. Munhoz’s poor defense and inability to cut off the cage make him cannon fodder for a mobile sharpshooter like Phillips and his dangerous top game is offset by his awful takedowns.

Maycee Barber (-205) vs. Katlyn Cerminara (+170)

Try a bit on Cerminara, who’s got noteworthy height and reach advantages. Barber’s only truly dangerous in the clinch and on top — she’s not skilled enough with her entries for the former and too incompetent a wrestler for the latter, so all signs point to Cerminara pot-shotting her way to the upset.

Mateusz Gamrot (-470) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+360)

We just watched Rafael dos Anjos get out-wrestled by a fading striker in Vicente Luque, and while Gamrot may not have “The Silent Assassin’s” size or ferocious standup, but he does have the wrestling technique and nonstop pace to ruin dos Anjos’ day in similar fashion.

Curtis Blaydes (-115) vs. Jailton Almeida (-105)

Hammer that Blaydes line. Throwing a front kick and then shooting from halfway across the cage may work on awful grapplers like Jairzinho Rozenstruik or bottom-feeders like Anton Turkalj, but not against a decorated wrestler with what looks to be a 30-pound weight advantage. Blaydes is levels above Almeida on the feet and way too good a grappler for Almeida’s predictable approach.

UFC 299 Odds For PPV Main Card:

Sean O’Malley (-258) vs. Marlon Vera (+210)

Not feeling too confident about either man; O’Malley’s never been five rounds and it would take a crowbar to the brainstem to put “Chito” down, but Vera’s output is so low that I can’t trust him to reliably pull off the upset.

Benoit Saint-Denis (-205) vs. Dustin Poirier (+164)

Much as I love Poirier, I don’t see him winning this. Takedown defense remains a significant issue for him, one which Saint-Denis is more than equipped to exploit, and “God of War” has shown off more than enough durability to survive Poirier’s best shots.

Kevin Holland (-135) vs. Michael Page (+114)

Go ham on Holland. “Trail Blazer” is inordinately durable and the better grappler by a huge margin, and as far as I’m aware, he hasn’t re-upped the “striking only” gentleman’s agreement he made with “Wonderboy” Thompson. Even if he does oblige Page on the feet, I don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed by someone who got out-boxed by Mike Perry.

Jack Della Maddalena (-162) vs. Gilbert Burns (+136)

As a huge fan of Della Maddalena’s since before his UFC debut, I don’t know how you can watch his fight with Bassil Hafez and install him as the favorite over a monstrous grappler like Burns. Della Maddalena’s lapses in judgment present a tantalizing target for one of the division’s most decorated grapplers, especially since “Durinho” also took everything Khamzat Chimaev could dish out. Burns is a solid underdog pick.

Petr Yan (-115) vs. Song Yadong (-105)

Call me a fool, but I still believe in Yan. Between his superior striking technique and underrated wrestling, he’s got everything he needs to out-gun Song. So long as his confidence is still intact after going through Merab Dvalishvili’s Wild Ride, it’s his fight to lose. Just don’t go too crazy; he’s still a slow starter and only has three rounds to work with.

UFC 299 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Josh Parisian: Bet $30 to make $75
• Single bet — Katlyn Cerminara: Bet $40 to make $68
• Single bet — Gilbert Burns: Bet $40 to make $54.40
• Single bet — Curtis Blaydes: Bet $70 to make $60.86
• Single bet — Kevin Holland: Bet $80 to make $59.25
• Parlay — Assu Almabayev and Michel Pereira: Bet $50 to make $52.19
• Parlay — Mateusz Gamrot and Petr Yan: Bet $40 to make $50.69
• Parlay — Benoit Saint-Denis and Kyler Phillips: Bet $50 to make $55.64

It’s so refreshing to see a properly stacked card for once. Be sure not to miss it; see you Saturday, Maniacs.

Initial Investment For 2024: $600
Current Total: $636.14

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 299 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 299: “O’Malley vs. Vera 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.