UFC 302 Odds: Betting Line Movements Tracker

Follow the money! See who is getting love from the bettors ahead of UFC 302 …

UFC 302 goes down this weekend (Sat., June 1, 2024) from inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The high-profile pay-per-view (PPV) main event has Lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, hoping to defend his undisputed title for the third time. He’ll also be hoping to defend it against someone not named Alexander Volkanovski for the first time. Indeed, his opponent is fan-favorite Dustin Poirier, who is perhaps facing his final shot at being a UFC undisputed champion.

And he’s ready.

Meanwhile, UFC 302’s co-main features Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa. Both these men are looking to prove they are relevant factors in the Middleweight division. Either has a shot of putting themselves into title contention with a flashy showing at UFC 302.

Also on UFC 302’s PPV main card is Heavyweight Jailton Almeida, who is looking to rebound from a tough loss when he takes on Alexandr Romanov. Rounding out the PPV main card (which you can catch on ESPN+ PPV) is Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk.

Interesting bouts on the “Prelims” include Phil Rowe vs. Jake Matthews, Niko Price vs. Alex Morono and Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards.

I’ve been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 302 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info you need as well my personal opinions on the odds/match-ups.

UFC 302 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

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Islam Makhachev (-675 -8.3 percent) vs. Dustin Poirier (+490 +31.9 percent)

Well, the public has sided with the bookies in this fight in a big way. The earliest odds on this fight were Islam Makhachev at -400 and Dustin Poirier at +280. But, it seems a lot of money has come in on Makhachev at that price, pushing Poirier out to close to +500. If you like Poirier in this match, then that’s good news for you. The price on him is forecast to grow a little more before it closes on Saturday (ht Best Fight Odds).

It’s pretty obvious the reason(s) Makhachev is such a heavy favorite here and why the public are picking him to continue his title reign over Poirier. Makhachev is a terrible style match-up for Poirier. And based on Poirier’s performance versus Khabib Nurmagomedov, he’ll probably have trouble defending the sambo-style takedown and submission threat that Makhachev possesses.

Sean Strickland (-270 -9.9 percent) vs. Paulo Costa (+220 +15.6 percent)

The co-main event is like the main event in that the public has been steadily betting the favorite, though to a less extreme. Sean Strickland’s price has come down from -185 to -270. Paulo Costa started off at +154 before growing to +220. The lines for these two started changing the most aggressively around last Tuesday.

Strickland seems the more predictable of the two fighters and oddsmakers probably consider him the more likely fighter to go out and execute a gameplan on Saturday night (just as he did in his famous title win against Israel Adesanya). Costa is more of a wildcard, but how good he looked against Robert Whittaker last time out is probably preventing his odds from going too high.

Kevin Holland (-298 -11.7 percent) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+240 +19.9 percent)

There’s been a decent amount of movement on the lines of both Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk. The direction of the movement speaks to the public fancying that favorite line on Holland. I think it’s fair to say Holland has taken a step down in competition here and many seem to believe he won’t have too much trouble against Oleksiejczuk. The Polish fighter started with odds of +165. Buyer beware, though, he’s lost every UFC fight where he’s been an underdog (other than his KO over Shamil Gamzatov when he was just +100).

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jailton Almeida (-305 -0.7 percent) vs. Alexandr Romanov (+245 +0.6 percent)

Almeida and Romanov’s lines are pretty similar to how they started out. However, there was some movement there. See the graphics below (via Best Fight Odds).

You can see that earlier this week some money came in on Romanov to take his odds as low as +208. However, just one day ago his line spiked with presumably money coming in against him.

I think this fight is closer than these odds suggest. Almeida’s grappling might get canceled out by Romanov’s wrestling (and vice-versa) and we might have to suffer through a staid Heavyweight kickboxing match. Almeida might look the more effective striker in that scenario.

Randy Brown (-175 -3.5 percent) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+145 +10.6 percent)

The public are siding with Randy Brown as a moderate favorite in this match-up, pushing Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos’ line from +120 to +145 (and it’s trending upward at this time of writing). This is a banger of a fight and I’m loathe to count out someone with the finishing power of dos Santos (especially against someone we’ve seen get cracked before). However, the Brazilian is 37-years-old. That didn’t hurt Diego Ferreira recently, but things don’t usually go well for the over 35 club.

UFC 302 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

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Cesar Almeida (-118 -20 percent) vs. Roman Kopylov (+102 +18.5 percent)

Significant money has come in for Cesar Almeida. He may be getting some shine from the current trend of former kickboxers wrecking shop in MMA (see Jhonata Diniz as very recent example). Almeida was actually a slight dog at +120 when this fight was announced, so a lot of folks are showing a lot of faith in the 36-year-old who has just two UFC bouts under his belt (one of which was a decision win on Contender Series). Roman Kopylov was the -163 favorite before that money came in and pushed him to being a very small underdog.

Grant Dawson (-485 -16.4 percent) vs. Joe Solecki (+370 +34.4 percent)

Grant Dawson has been getting steady action since the odds were released on this fight. His line has gradually shrunk from -250 to -485. So, bettors seem to have forgiven his 30-second knockout loss to Bobby Green last time out (see that here). Dawson seems to have Joe Solecki beat when it comes to both striking and wrestling, so it’s hard to see a path to victory for Solecki here. Solecki’s opening odds were just +205, but he’s forecast to close at around +390.

Phil Rowe (+136 -0.9 percent) vs. Jake Matthews (-162 -0.7 percent)

There’s not been a lot of change in this match-up. Bettors seem quite content with Jake Matthews as the slight favorite here (perhaps down to name recognition and experience over anything else). Phil Rowe’s odds have expanded slightly here, but I quite like him as an underdog — given his edge in the grappling department. Rowe won his Contender Series bout and his fight against Orion Cosce as a slight underdog. Though he lost as a -145 dog to Neil Magny.

Niko Price (+215 -6.9 percent) vs. Alex Morono (-265 +2.1 percent)

Not much of huge changes in these lines. At one point, Alex Morono’s odds started at -278, but they have been steadily shrinking since then with him forecast to close at around -225. This is despite Niko Price KO’ing Morono when they met back in 2017 (only for the fight to be turned into a “No Contest” because of Price popping for weed). Obviously, both Vegas and the public have liked what they’ve seen from Morono since then. Indeed, he’s looked like a solid vet in UFC over the past five years, compared to the very up and down performances we’ve seen from Price.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC 302 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Mickey Gall (+310 +23.5 percent) vs. Bassil Hafez (-395 -8.2 percent)

Mickey Gall has seen his odds surge upward since he opened at +200. Bassil Hafez opened at -275. Just like the Almeida odds, this shows a lot of faith has gone to a fighter who doesn’t have much of a sample size at the UFC level. Hafez held his own in a split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena in his lone UFC fight and it seems plenty of folks think that’s a good enough reason to believe he can beat Gall.

Ailin Perez (-185 +8.6 percent) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+154 -8.3 percent)

The odds on this bout have grown a little with the public not being totally sold on Ailin Perez as the favorite here. Perez started at -250, but last week the line on her started to rise. You could have gotten Joselyne Edwards at +175 back when this fight is announced. Edwards has a lot of size on Perez, so that might be something that bettors are factoring in when considering her as a live dog here.

Mitch Raposo (+220 -5.2 percent) vs. Andre Lima (-270 +1.2 percent)

There’s not a lot of line movement to speak of here. These fighters have one UFC fight between them (excluding Contender Series). Andre Lima won that fight after getting bit by Igor Severino (here in case you missed it).

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 302 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the five biggest line movements at UFC 302:

Joe Solecki from a +205 underdog to a +370 underdog.
Dustin Poirier from a +280 underdog to a +490 underdog.
Mickey Gall from a +200 underdog to a +310 underdog.
Cesar Almeida from a +120 underdog to a -118 favorite.
Michal Oleksiejczuk from a +165 underdog to a +240 underdog.

UFC 302 Best Underdogs Bets

Much of the betting movement on this card has underdogs’ odds growing (some by quite extreme levels). My favorite underdogs on this card have seen less dramatic movement in their lines. They are Phil Rowe, Roman Kopylov and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

I think Rowe’s grappling advantage might be the key that separates him from Jake Matthews. And I’m not sold on Cesar Almeida as a favorite and can imagine Kopylov nullifying his kickboxing game with takedowns and cage-craft. In Brown vs. dos Santos, I’m expecting a fire fight. And although Randy Brown has the reach advantage, dos Santos has the power advantage. Brown has been hit before and I think dos Santos will be able to find his range and land something on him that decides the fight.

Which dogs do you like, though? Let me know in the comments and in this handy dandy poll:

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 302 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 302: “Makhachev vs. Poirier” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.