UFC 303: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Pereira vs. Prochazka 2

UFC 303 is live this weekend (Sat., June 29, 2024). This card has been through a ton of changes, but it’s still got some fire match-ups with Alex Pereira fighting Jiri Prochazka and Briant Ortega meeting Diego Lopes.

UFC 303 goes down this weekend (Sat., June 29, 2024) at the familiar T-Mobile Arena outside of Las Vegas, NV. For those living under a rock, the main event for this was supposed to be Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler. However, that long (long) awaited fight fell through two weeks ago because McGregor’s pinky went wee wee wee and he was forced to stay home. Sad Michael Chandler will likely be in the front row for this one wondering what could have been.

Our late replacement main event should deliver some action, though, with UFC Light Heavyweight champ Alex Pereira defending against Jiri Prochazka. Pereira will be wanting to prove that his first win over Prochazka was no fluke (despite being a tad of an early stoppage). And Prochazka will be looking to claim back the belt he won from Pereira’s mentor Glover Teixeira and vacated after a horrific shoulder injury.

Also on the main card, we’ve got Brian Ortega meeting Diego Lopes in the Featherweight division. There’s also Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze (another hastily put together fight booking) and Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page.

The late “Prelims” headliner is Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault. The Late Prelims also have Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili and Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva.

The early “Prelims” are headlined with Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Jillian Robertson.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card, and we’ve got odds for all the fights below.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 303 Main Card Money Line Odds

Alex Pereira (-135) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+114)

Alex Pereira is the slight favorite against he man he beat seven months ago, albeit in slightly controversial fashion (was this a good stoppage?). The closing odds on their fight in November was -125 for Pereira and +105 for Jiri Prochazka. So it seems the bookies haven’t changed their minds much on this match-up and still consider it a very close fight, despite the last one ending in a TKO.

The scouting report on this bout is pretty obvious. Pereira is one of the most dangerous strikers MMA has ever seen. Prochazka is a wild man whose striking is behind Pereira’s but beyond almost everyone else in the division. Prochazka is the better wrestler and grappler, but who knows whether or not he cares about proving that on Saturday night.

If Prochazka is determined to get his belt back, then we could see him looking to mix his martial arts; gambling a little on the feet to set up openings for takedowns. If Prochazka wants to win a war and prove he can bang with the best of them, we might see him bite down on his mouthpiece and then get separated from his conscious by that left hand of stone.

If Prochazka lets Pereira strike, the Brazilian will find his way to that chin. Pereira has a 62% accuracy on his significant strikes. When he fought Prochazka he landed 38 of 61 sig. strikes (62%), so in that bout Prochazka did nothing to prevent Pereira landing as many shots as he usually does. Israel Adesanya is the only man who has been able to impede Pereira enough that his accuracy has dropped below 60%.

Bizarrely Prochazka landed 56% of his sig. strikes when he fought Pereira and that is also his career average. So Pereira was also not great at stopping Prochazka landing what he wanted. However, Prochazka’s offense is slightly more forgiving than Pereira who has genuine one shot KO power.

I think we’re going to see a pretty similar fight this time around as he did in November. And because of that I like Pereira as a favorite here. If this thing drags on into a third round, then I can see Prochazka changing tactics and looking to steal rounds with wrestling. But if we’re just doing kickboxing here, it’s going to be “And Still!” on Saturday night.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Brian Ortega (-124) vs. Diego Lopes (+148)

Brian Ortega had quite the “remember me?” moment last time out when he finished Yair Rodriguez in Mexico City (see it here). He got the win that night, but some of the big question marks we have about him remain. He got hit hard by Rodriguez in that bout and was dropped in the first round. It’s amazing that Ortega was able to preserve and he looked fantastic once he got the fight to the ground. However, how long do we think Ortega can keep soaking up punishment before being able to turn the tables on an opponent?

At UFC 303 he might be meeting someone who can hurt him on the feet and then be able to not only survive, but thrive, on the ground once Ortega takes it there.

Diego Lopes comes into this one with three straight wins. He TKO’d Sodiq Yusuff last time out (see it here) and before that finished Pat Sabatini (see that here). He’s never faced someone who has the quality of Ortega, but he certainly seems to be tending upwards and was a cut above who he has faced in the Octagon so far (other than Movsar Evloev who he faced on very short notice for his debut).

Lopes will be happy to entertain Ortega on the ground. And this will be a thrilling battle if they get there. But Lopes will also be happy to trade with Ortega on the feet.

Ortega, on the other hand, will probably only feel confident on the ground and he might give up a lot on the feet before we get there.

Because of Lopes being more dangerous across both dimensions, I think he’s a good underdog bet here.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Anthony Smith (+120) vs. Roman Dolidze (-142)

This is a weird fight to call. Both these guys have been rushed into this booking with little to no time to prepare for each other. Anthony Smith was getting ready for big powerful slugger Carlos Ulberg before he pulled out (for undisclosed reasons). Now he’s getting a more well-rounded fighter who is coming up from Middleweight in the form of Roman Dolidze.

I think this is a better fight for Smith than the Ulberg match-up. Dolidze has decent hands (just ask Phil Hawes), but he doesn’t have the life-changing one punch power that Ulberg seems to possess.

Despite this being a better match-up for Smith, I can still see why Vegas thinks Dolidze will win this. He’s tough and athletic and was a massive Middleweight so the move to Light Heavyweight shouldn’t be that much of an issue. I think Dolidze’s athleticism and activity will get him the win here. I don’t know if he can put away the savvy veteran, but I’m quietly confident that he can avoid Smith’s tricks and won’t get caught with a sub (unlike the last guy who thought he could run through Lionheart).

Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

Mayra Bueno Silva (-102) vs. Macy Chiasson (-118)

I’m not looking forward to this one. Mayra Bueno Silva faded terribly against Raquel Pennington when she fought for the title. And exciting Macy Chiasson fights are few and far between (though she did look good against a very beatable Pannie Kianzad last time out). This could be a prolonged starring match, broken up by checked leg kicks and clinches against the cage that a broken up for inactivity.

It’s a pick ‘em. But I think Bueno Silva’s odds are thanks to the fact she’s been in a championship fight. I think Chiasson is more deserving of the short odds, given her big size advantage and the threat she poses with the takedown.

Photo by Hans Gutknecht/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images

Ian Machado Garry (-142) vs. Michael Page (+120)

I really want this to be a fun fight. Although, I fear this might be one of those where both guy keeps waiting for the perfect opportunity to attack and then that moment fails to materialize. I have more faith in Michael Page bringing the ruckus in this bout and forcing things to happen. I’m not sure whether that will be good or bad for him, though. Ian Machado Garry is a good defensive fighter and he will be able to counter Page. But Page might be offensively gifted enough to overcome that. I just hope we get to see that battle play out and not see Page showboating and trying to draw Garry in, while Garry keeps it safe and simple and circles away and tries to score points on leg kicks.

The approach I think Page might take will have greater risk than what I think Garry will be doing. Because of that I’m picking Garry to win here, either by decision or the kind of counter sequence we saw Douglas Lima land on Page (see it here).

I also don’t like that Page is ten years older than Garry. Page is always in shape, but I think Garry will be able to take him down and work him over on the ground should he start to feel in danger on the feet.

UFC 303 ‘Late Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Joe Pyfer (-305) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+245)

Both Joe Pyfer and Marc-Andre Barriault are coming off losses. Bodybagz was humbled by Jack Hermansson in his main event debut in February. Barriault lost a split decision in a fun fight with Chris Curtis in January.

Despite his loss to Hermansson, Pyfer is still a blue chip prospect with fantastic striking and grappling for the division. He’s better than Barriault everywhere, so I can see why he’s the heavy favorite here.

Cub Swanson (+200) vs. Andre Fili (-245)

Everyone loves Cub Swanson (except Joaquin Buckley). But does he need to be out here in his 40s? Andre Fili is no spring chicken himself. I know he’s like Alex Caceres in that he seems perpetually 25, but he actually turned 34 this week.

Swanson is coming off a win over Hakeem Dawodu just under a year ago due to some questionable judging. Before that he was leg kick TKO’d by Jonathan Martinez (see that here).

Fili was stopped by Dan Ige last time out (see it here). But before that he finished Lucas Almeida (check that out here). Two weeks ago Almeida looked phenomenal in dismantling Timmy Cuamba. So I think it’s fair to say that, in this match-up, Fili is the only fighter with a recent and relevant quality victory.

Swanson was the better striker in his prime. But on Saturday he’ll have a big reach disadvantage to contend with. Fili should be too long and too active for Swanson, though you never want to count a veteran as crafty as Swanson out entirely.

Swanson is notoriously tough to put away. Two of his three career T/KO losses are to Martinez’s leg kicks and to a liver kick from Giga Chikadze (here) in 2021. The only time he has been stopped with strikes to his head was due to a legendary Jose Aldo flying knee (on a night when Aldo could have beaten anyone in the world).

If Fili’s smart, he would attack Swanson’s legs and body. Even so, I think Swanson could gut all that out and make it through all three rounds. If that happens I still think Fili would have done a lot more in there to justify a decision win.

Charles Jourdain (-125) vs. Jean Silva (+105)

Charles Jourdain has proven time and time again that he struggles to seal the deal and his ceiling has been truly established as a prelim fighter thanks to decision losses to Sean Woodson, Nathaniel Wood and Shane Burgos. Jean Silva comes into this one with just a Contender Series win and a KO of Westin Wilson under his belt (see it here).

Jourdain has never been T/KO’d and that seems to be Jean Silva’s most likely path to the victory. I think Jourdain is the better fighter, but I just can’t trust him to either push on for a finish when an opponent is hurt or maintain enough pressure to earn a decision win. So I’m not touching this pick ’em.

Payton Talbott (-1600) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+900)

Payton Talbott is a remarkably heavy favorite here against Yanis Ghemmouri. These kinds of odds are absurd in a sport like MMA. Talbott has looked sensational so far in his career, but Ghemmouri isn’t a can. I’m of course picking Talbott here, but I think he’ll need to put in a good shift to earn his W.

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UFC 303 ‘Early Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+154) vs. Jillian Robertson (-185)

Michele Waterson-Gomez turned 38 in January. And the last few years of her fight career have not been kind to her. Since 2019 The Karate Hottie has a split decision win over Angela Hill and a unanimous decision win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz sprinkled around six losses. And some of those losses involved a lot of punishment, especially her last fight with Marina Rodriguez that ended in a blood-drenched TKO (see it here).

The 29-year-old Gillian Robertson beat Polyana Viana via TKO last time out (see it here). She appears to be a late bloomer, hitting her stride as she reaches her late twenties. This late career development might be down to her increased focus on BJJ (she’s beaten Montana De La Rosa and Rose Namajunas in grappling in recent years).

Robertson is going to be bigger and stronger than Waterson-Gomez. Waterson-Gomez is used to that, but at 38 she is now going to be slower than her opponent, too. Robertson should be able to take her down and find a finish on the ground here (33% of Waterson-Gomez’s 12 pro losses are to submission).

Andre Arlovski (+210) vs. Martin Buday (-258)

Andre Arlovski is 45-years-old and will be heading into his 57th pro fight this weekend. He’s lost three straight, with a decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, a TKO to Don’Tale Mayes (here) and a submission to Marcos Rogerio de Lima.

Martin Buday was stopped by Shamil Gaziev in his last fight (see the standing TKO here), but that came after four UFC wins in a row for the Slovakian.

I doubt Arlovski has the energy or athleticism left to produce a KO blow at the UFC level. Buday should be able to avoid being caught while peppering away. Buday is sixth in the division for sig. strikes landed per minute and eighth in the division for striking accuracy. He’s also sixth for sig. striking defense. I think Arlovski is still tough enough to last three rounds, but I don’t think he will be able to put down a body of work that justifies a decision victory.

Rei Tsuruyu (-455) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+350)

Undefeated Japanese prospect Rei Tsururyu is one of the heaviest favorites on the card (despite being a replacement fighter). He won season two of the Road to UFC Flyweight tournament. Road to UFC isn’t the best talent factory the promotion has to offer, but Rei might be a gem of a prospect.

Rei’s suffocating wrestling game will be tested by Carlos Hernandez’s 65% takedown defense. However, I still think the prospect will be able to do what his countryman Tatsuro Taira did and go out there and finish Hernandez on the ground.

Ricky Simon (-230) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+190)

After two losses (including this big TKO to Song Yadong) Ricky Simon finds himself turned from Bantamweight contender to curtain jerker. He meets Vinicius Oliveira, who stormed onto the scene in March with a huge flying knee TKO (see it here). Simon is the favorite here given his experience with top level opposition and the belief that he should be able to avoid Oliveira’s home run swings while making this a grinding wrestling affair.

Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images

UFC 303 Prop Bets And Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting for this Saturday’s UFC 303 card …

Diego Lopes total significant strikes landed – Over 43.5 (-115)

I think, win or lose, Brian Ortega is going to get hit a lot in this fight. Here’s a breakdown of how many sig. strikes he’s absorbed in his last few contests:

• Third round win vs. Yair Rodriguez: 55
• First round loss vs. Yair Rodriguez: 23
• Five round loss vs. Alexander Volkanovski: 214
• Five round win vs. Chan Sung Jung: 62

Lopes is yet to land 44 sig. strikes in a fight, but that’s because he’s had opposition that he’s been able to put away quickly. He landed 26 on Sodiq Yusuff, 13 on Pat Sabatini and he didn’t need any to beat Gavin Tucker.

I don’t think Lopes can put Ortega away quickly and that, win or lose, this could last three rounds. If that happens I think Ortega will get hit upwards of 43 times.

Two fight parlay: Gillian Robertson to defeat Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Martin Buday to defeat Andrei Arlovski (+116)

Andrei Arlovski and Michelle Waterson-Gomez’s combined age is 83. I think both have terrible match-ups against younger, stronger and faster opponents. Martin Buday, as mentioned above, is high in all heavyweight striking metrics. He should be able to out work Arlovski for at least a decision. Gillian Robertson is peaking and her submission game is very dangerous, especially against someone who is prone to being submitted.

Macy Chiasson to win by split or majority decision (+700)

For a dart this week, I’m going for Macy Chiasson to beat Mayra Bueno Silva via split or majority decision. I think this fight will be lacking in action and we’ll have at least one round that could be scored either way (and that we’ll have two judges disagree on that).

Since UFC 300 there have been 18 UFC fights involving women. All but four of those have gone to a decision. Of the 14 fights that went the distance, six of those were split or majority decisions. That’s almost 43%. I think +700 is a great price on something that happens this often.

Also, Chiasson’s most recent decision win was a split (versus Norma Dumont at UFC 274).

UFC 303 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

What else are you liking for this event? Hit us up in the comments below.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 303 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the “Main Card” play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

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