UFC 305’s best betting props, parlays and picks | DDP vs. Izzy

UFC 305 is live this weekend (Sat., Aug. 17, 2024), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event between Middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis versus bitter African rival, Israel Adesanya, Check the odds for that delicious 185-pound showdown (and much more) right here!

UFC 305 goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 17, 2024) from inside RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event has Dricus Du Plessis attempting to defend his Middleweight title for the first time. His opposition will be the returning Israel Adesanya, who has held that belt over two reigns and successfully defended it on five occasions. The co-main for this one is Steve Erceg, who is coming off an unsuccessful UFC Flyweight title shot in Brazil. In his hometown he’ll take on Kai Kara-France.

Rounding out the main card we have Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker at Lightweight/All-Violence, Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik at Heavyweight and Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates at Welterweight.

The late “Prelims” headliner is Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker. The early “Prelims” feature Tom Nolan against Alex Reyes.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card (see it here), and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 305 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Dricus Du Plessis (+105) vs. Israel Adesanya (-125)

It will be 343 days between Israel Adesanya’s stunning loss to Sean Strickland in Toronto and his scheduled meeting with Dricus Du Plessis in Perth. Against Strickland he looked off. It happened around a time when he was having personal issues (hence the ‘He is not your bank’ T-shirt) and legal issues (due to a drink driving arrest). After the loss to Strickland, Adesanya said he needed some time away from the sport. Personally, I don’t think less than a year is sufficient (especially when you factor a lot of the time spent doing promotion and a fight camp) and I worry he might be coming back too early.

Adesanya turned 35 last month. That might be one of the reasons’ Adesanya’s hiatus became a ‘short break’. If he’d taken a legitimate break from the sport and returned in a year or two there’s a good chance he wouldn’t be competitive against the emerging crop of top UFC Middleweights.

The pressure to get back in the cage now, before the window truly closes on his athletic prime, coupled with the situations around his previous losses, mean — for me — the vibes are off for Adesanya here.

If he had faced Du Plessis three years ago I have no doubts that he would have been able to snipe him from range and put him down within three rounds. However, I’m not that confident of that happening this time around, especially given the fact that the 30-year-old Du Plessis is still trending slightly upwards in his career.

In his prime Adesanya feasted on fighters like Du Plessis; guys who come forwards with reckless abandonment (see his wins over Derek Brunson [here], Paulo Costa [here] and Robert Whittaker [here]).

We know Du Plessis is going to charge Adesanya. What will determine the fight is whether Adesanya is still as composed and clinical as he was in his championship years. If so, then Du Plessis is going to walk into something and get put to sleep. If Adesanya isn’t sharp, mentally and/or physically, then Du Plessis will be able to hit him and take him down before those counters can land.

I think if Du Plessis is able to put pressure on Adesanya, and not get checked with a hard jab or kick on the way in, he could make this fight very tough for The Last StyleBender.

Du Plessis leads the Middleweight division with 6.49 significant strikes landed per minute. The counter-striker Adesanya lands only 3.93. Adesanya’s strikes have historically been more meaningful, though (eliciting a division leading number of knockdowns).

Adesanya’s striking defense doesn’t look very good on paper. 56% puts him barely in the top ten of his division. However, when you look at his recent fights he’s been impressive in allowing very few strikes from known volume strikers.

Strickland landed 137 in five rounds in his win over Adesanya. Strickland landed 173 against Du Plessis and 182 against Costa.

Jared Cannonier landed just 90 in his five rounds loss to Adesanya. Cannonier landed 141 on Strickland and 241 on Cannonier.

Whittaker landed just 59 over five rounds in their rematch. He landed 74 and 95 strikes in three round fights with Marvin Vettori and Costa.

The Adesanya we’re most accustomed to seeing has a good chance of avoiding a lot of Du Plessis’ offense. But I’m torn on whether we see that Adesanya here (or ever again).

Another thing to consider is that Adesanya’s ability to not take a lot of strikes/punishment over his career has been helped by his great takedown defense (77%). In this fight, though, I think Du Plessis will succeed in taking him down. Du Plessis was able to take Strickland down six times (on eleven attempts) to win the title. Strickland’s takedown defense is also 77%. Du Plessis was also able to take down Whittaker and Brunson, too, both of whom have takedown defenses of over 80%.

In conclusion, I’d love to see Adesanya rewind the clock and claim back his title with a clinical KO win over the anti-popular Du Plessis. However, I just don’t see it happening. I worry that Adesanya’s mindset might not be repaired yet and, even if it is, his declining athleticism and speed should allow Du Plessis to get close to him. I predict Du Plessis can land close to a hundred strikes and half a dozen takedowns in this fight. I think that’s a recipe for decision win or a late TKO.

Pick: Dricus Du Plessis via TKO, round 4.

Photo by Leandro Bernardes/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Kai Kara-France (+150) vs. Steve Erceg (-180)

The last time we saw Steve Erceg is was when he threw away his UFC Flyweight title shot at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro. Erceg was lighting Alexandre Pantoja up on the feet in the first few rounds of their fight. However, in the midway point of the contest he decided to try mixing things up. He went away from what was working for him and engaged Pantoja in lengthy clinch and grappling battles that allowed the Brazilian back into the fight and ultimately resulted in him losing a decision. Erceg was near tears after the bout, I think because he must have realized he was winning this thing and would have been taking a belt home to Perth if he had just kept the fight standing.

He’s back in Perth now, albeit without a belt. And he has Kai Kara-France as his opponent. The oddsmakers have him as the favorite and that’s a good position to take if Erceg has learned from his mistake. Outside of that fight Erceg has seemed like a heady individual so I think there is a good chance we see him pile on the pressure next time he has an opponent in trouble.

Kara-France has been out of action for over a year. His last fight was a split decision loss to Amir Albazi in the UFC APEX. That fight came a year after his previous bout, a TKO loss to Brandon Moreno for the interim Flyweight title (see that here). The year long break between the Moreno and Albazi fight was due to a knee injury. The year long break between the Albazi fight and now was due to a concussion, which took him out of a planned fight with Manel Kape last September.

The scorecards in the Albazi fight have been much criticized, with the vast majority of media scores ruling in favor of Kara-France (per MMA Decisions). Even though I scored the fight for Kara-France, I don’t think this was a robbery. It was just a very close fight with a number of rounds that could go either way.

I like Erceg to win this fight. I think he erased a lot of questions over his strength of schedule by taking Pantoja to five rounds and thoroughly drubbing him on the feet. He’s fighting someone more tried and tested than him, again, but I think I’m optimistic that Erceg will be improved after his experience of fighting for the title.

I’m concerned about Kara-France’s long lay-off and I don’t think he can out-wrestler Erceg the way Pantoja did should he feel he’s coming off second best in the striking exchanges.

Prediction: Steve Erceg via decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Mateusz Gamrot (-340) vs. Dan Hooker (+260)

Dan Hooker is a big underdog against Mateusz Gamrot here in Australia. The Kiwi is coming off a thrilling back and forth fight with Jalin Turner last July. That was over a year ago, though. He was due to fight King Green in December but had to pull out of that due to an arm injury.

Hooker’s win over Turner followed his body kick finish over Claudio Puelles (see that here). Those wins came after quick losses to Arnold Allen (see it here) and future champion Islam Makhachev (see that here).

He’s been given a tough opponent here in the form of Mateusz Gamrot. Each time he’s fought someone of a similar stature Hooker’s faltered (see his losses to Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler), so I can certainly see why the bookies think Gamrot will come out on top down under.

Gamrot has won three straight; against a pretty washed Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev (due to injury) and Jalin Turner (a split decision). Those wins came after he was shut out by Beneil Dariush. Gamrot’s best win in the promotion, on paper, is his unanimous decision over Arman Tsarukyan. However, I and many other onlookers think Tsarukyan won that fight.

Gamrot vs. Hooker is a pretty even fight if it just happens on the feet. Both are great strikers. Gamrot’s patience and efficiency and Hooker’s reach and aggressiveness make the stand-up battle a wash for me. I think both will be able to land on the other, but I have doubts that either will be able to put the other one away standing.

I think Gamrot’s takedowns will be the decider in this bout, something he used to dominate Dos Anjos last time out. Hooker has great takedown defense on paper at 80% (Gamrot’s is 90%, by the way). But he’s not faced a lot of guys in his career who make the takedown a focal point of their attack. He’s mostly fought guys who are as happy as he is to stand and bang. The only opponents he’s fought in the UFC with a takedowns per 15 minute average higher than 2.00 are Puelles, Makhachev, Chandler, Gilbert Burns and Hatsu Hioki.

He evaded eight of eight takedowns from Puelles, but those weren’t exactly stellar takedown attempts — they were mostly Puelles rolling for leg locks or him flopping forwards from too far away. He was taken down once (on one attempt) by Makhachev and submitted. Chandler didn’t attempt any takedowns in their fight. Burns attempted one takedown and failed to convert. Hioki went 2 for 5 (back in 2015). So I don’t think that 80% takedown defense rating is much to write home about (especially if you remove his success against a really poor looking Puelles).

Gamrot is a willing, and effective, takedown artist and that could be a real nightmare for Hooker in this match-up.

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot via unanimous decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Tai Tuivasa (+180) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-220)

Tai Tuivasa is in a hole right now. He’s lost his last four, all by stoppage. Two of them were via TKO. Now, admittedly, that’s come against a murderer’s row of Ciryl Gane (see that TKO here), Sergei Pavlovich (see that TKO here) and Alexander Volkov.

The UFC haven’t done him any favors here, though. In his home country he’s been given another heavy hitter who will probably be able to find and test his chin on Saturday night.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik outlasted Shamil Gaziev last time out. Prior to that he was choked out by Jailton Almeida (see that here). That came after he scored his seventh TKO win in UFC, with a 23 second victory over Chris Daukaus (see that here).

Tuivasa has become a fighter who will just stand in front of you and test to see if you’re powerful enough to knock him out. He’s never attempted a takedown in UFC and his striking defense is a porous 43%. He absorbs 5.05 significant strikes a minute, which is dreadful and dangerous, especially at Heavyweight.

Rozenstruik has a three inch reach advantage on Tuivasa and it will just be a matter of time before Bigi Boy rings Bam Bam’s bell.

Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik via KO, round 1.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Li Jingliang (+250) vs. Carlos Prates (-320)

Veteran Muay Thai fighter Carlos Prates continued to look slick in the Octagon when he took out Charles Radkte with a hellacious knee to the body a few months ago (watch it here).

This fight will be happening on Prates’ 31st birthday. He’s not that long in the tooth, but he has had a lot of fights during that time and that’s not including the many bouts he’s racked up in Muay Thai shows that don’t appear on Tapology. In pro MMA he has two fights fewer than Li Jingliang, who is five years older than him.

Li’s career has already hit its ceiling. His loss to ultimate gate-keeper Neil Magny in 2020 showed he was never likely to break into the top five at Welterweight. Since then he beat Santiago Ponznibbio via KO (see it here), was smeshed by Khamzat Chimaev (see that here) and TKO’d Muslim Salikhov (see it here). In his last bout he lost a split decision to Daniel Rodriguez.

Prates is a decent favourite here and that’s because of his youth and his massive seven inch reach advantage.

Prates should be able to chew the Leech up in striking exchanges, patiently jabbing away at him from range and landing counters when Li tries to close distance. Li has never been stopped by strikes, so it would be a big feather in his cap if Prates could pull that off. His strikes are nasty and well placed, so I think he has a chance to do that. If not, though, I still see him hitting and hurting Li enough that he’s able to cruise to a decision.

Prediction: Carlos Prates via unanimous decision

UFC 305 ‘Late Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Junior Tafa (-120) vs. Valter Walker (Evens)

A battle of low output Heavyweights. Not exactly the fight to get folks’ excited and convince them to buy the PPV.

Junior Tafa was beat up by Marcos Rogerio de Lima last time out (after coming in on short notice to replace his brother). Before that he KO’d Parker Porter (see that here). He lost his UFC debut to Mohammed Usman via unanimous decision.

Valter Walker lost his UFC debut to Lukasz Brzeski in April. He was undefeated prior to that. Though, the biggest name on his record is Mike Perry’s BFF Alex Nicholson.

Neither of these guys are UFC level (as if that means anything nowadays). Walker is a very big man. He couldn’t make that count against Brzeski, though. He was able to get takedowns, but his striking was so dreadful that Brzeski’s work on the feet was able to cancel out all the control time he got on the ground.

Tafa should be able to replicate what Brzeski did for a lacklustre decision win.

Prediction: Junior Tafa via decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Josh Culibao (-150) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+125)

This is a pretty evenly matched fight. Both guys have had a similar up and down career in UFC, thus far, with losses to tough opponents. Culibao lost a split decision to Danny Silva last time out and lost to recent headliner Lerone Murphy, via unanimous decision, before that. Ricardo Ramos is coming off back-to-back guillotine choke losses to Julian Erosa and Charles Jourdain. Culibao has the slight advantage on the feet, but Ramos poses more of a threat in the grappling department (3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and 60% accuracy). Culibao has decent, but not stellar, takedown defense (67%).

I like Ramos in this fight due to his more varied assault. Culibao will hope this fight is all striking, but I’m not convinced he can force that to happen.

Prediction: Ricardo Ramos via decision.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Casey O’Neill (+145) vs. Luana Santos (-175)

Luana Santos just submit Mariya Agapova a month ago, with very little trouble. That made her 3-0 in UFC, following wins over Stephanie Egger and Juliana Miller (via TKO). That has earned her a step-up in competition and a fight with Casey O’Neill.

After a good start to her UFC career, which included wins over Antonina Shevchenko and Roxanne Modafferi, O’Neill has lost to Jennifer Maia and Ariane Lipski Da Silva.

O’Neill is a volume distance striker who lands 8.41 significant strikes per minute. That leads all active UFC fighters. That stat would be far more impressive if she wasn’t absorbing 6.3 significant strikes a minute herself.

Santos lands 5.33 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.21. She also scores two takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts two submissions per 15 minutes. She’s the more well-rounded fighter here and her strikes have more snap and menace to them than O’Neill’s. She’s coming in on short notice (replacing Tereza Bleda), but I think she’s one to watch at Flyweight and I think she’ll be able to hang with O’Neill on the feet and get her in trouble on the ground.

Prediction: Luana Santos via submission, round 2.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

Jack Jenkins (-850) vs. Herbert Burns (+500)

Herbert Burns is one of our biggest underdogs on the card. He’s not looked great in UFC. Julio Arce TKO’d him in March (see that here). That was after a two year lay-off. Before the lay-off he was exhausted by Bill Algeo (see that here) and crucified by Daniel Pineda (check that out here). He’s 36 now and I doubt UFC will keep him around after this fight, win or lose. Even if he’s doing them a solid by flying out to Australia on short notice to fill in for Gavin Tucker.

Jack Jenkins came off the Contender Series in 2022. The Australian beat Don Shainis and Jamall Emmers before losing to Chepe Marsical in his last fight (due to an injury). He’s another fighter who hasn’t fought for close to a year.

Burns has some size on Jenkins, but he’s also 36, not very active, and coming off a nasty loss.

Prediction: Jack Jenkins via TKO, round 2.

UFC 305 ‘Early Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Tom Nolan (-1150) vs. Alex Reyes (+650)

Tom Nolan is a massive favorite in this fight. He last fought in May, beating Victor Martinez as a -500 favorite. That win got him to 1-1 in UFC, having been TKO’d by Nikolas Motta in his debut (see that here).

Nolan was dropped in the Martinez fight before he was able to land the knee that would effectively end Martinez’s night. It was a good finish for Nolan, but the performance was a little underwhelming considering that Martinez had fought just twice in the past five years.

Alex Reyes is coming off two stoppage losses. Last September he was TKO’d by Charlie Campbell (see it here) and before that he was knocked out by a Mike Perry knee (see that here). Those fights (his only in the UFC) were six years apart.

Nolan is a very big Lightweight, but he won’t have a reach advantage over Reyes. He’s a very raw, and somewhat sloppy, talent at this point of his career. He’s been given another opponent like Martinez though, someone older, slower and who has barely been active over the past half decade. He’ll likely win, but this fight won’t tell us much about him if he does.

Prediction: Tom Nolan via KO, round 1.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Song Kenan (-195) vs. Ricky Glenn (+165)

Another fight with older guys who are yet to compete in this calendar year. Fun.

Song Kenan and Ricky Glenn have a combined age of 70 and a combined UFC record of 9-9. Super fun.

Song is coming off a bruising loss to Kevin Jousset in December. Glenn was viciously TKO’d by Drew Dober in October (see it here). Prior to that he was KO’d by Christos Giagos.

This fight is happening at Welterweight. Glenn, desperate to shake-up his fight career, is a former Featherweight.

Both these guys will be down to scrap, but neither have much of a chin to see them through such scraps. Someone is going down and I’ll trust the natural Welterweight to be the hammer and not the nail here.

Prediction: Song Kenan via TKO, round 2.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Stewart Nicoll (-240) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+195)

Stewart Nicoll is making his promotional debut at UFC 305. He’s 8-0 after time spent exclusively on the Aussie circuit. He’s got a lot of potential, though. Jesus Aguilar is 2-1 in UFC. He was submitted in his UFC debut against Tatsuro Taira (no shame in that). After that he KO’d Shannon Ross in 17 seconds (see it here). He also has a win over Edgar Chairez outside of the UFC.

The bookies have bought the hype on Nicoll. I haven’t seen enough of him to clap back on that, so I’ll side with Vegas.

Prediction: Stewart Nicoll via decision.

Photo by Carmen Mandato/Zuffa LLC

UFC 305 Prop Bets And Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC 305 card …

Two pick parlay: Jairzinho Rozenstruik to beat Tai Tuivasa and Mateusz Gamrot to defeat Dan Hooker (-114)

I think it’s going to be a bad night for Oceania with lots of Aussies and Kiwis collecting Ls. Two of those home nation fighters with the worst match-ups are Tai Tuivasa and Dan Hooker. Tuivasa has been used for target practise lately and I don’t think Rozenstruik will miss his chances to put him away. Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot could put on a fun brawl, but I think Gamrot is going to be able to take the Hangman down (on repeat) for a convincing win.

Mateusz Gamrot takedowns landed – Over 4.5 (+100)

I think this total is really low for this fight. I think it’s been set at 4.5 due to Dan Hooker’s takedown defense (80%). However, as I explained above, I don’t think that’s an accurate reflection on his ability to stop Gamrot taking him down in this fight. Against Rafael dos Anjos in his last fight, Gamrot scored 11 takedowns (which says more about RDA than him, sadly). Before that he was 1 of 6 against Fiziev over one and a half rounds (Fiziev has a legit takedown defense of 89%, though). In previous bouts he took Jailin Turner (74% takedown defense) down four times, Beneil Dariush (80% takedown defense) down four times and Arman Tsarukyan (75% takedown defense) down six times.

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates to go to a decision (+150)

I think this is a tough fight for both men. Li is the best MMA fighter Prates has ever faced, even with the fact that Li has declined considerably from his peak years. Li also has a heck of a chin and he’s never been stopped. I think Prates will win this fight, but I think Li will be tough enough to withstand the strikes he’ll get thrown at him (even ones which were good enough to put down the likes of Charles Radkte and Trevin Giles). Li has scored his fair share of stoppages, but I don’t think he’ll stop Prates on Saturday night.

Prates is tough as hell, too. He has one TKO loss on his record. I’ve watched it. It was a bout with Mikhail Romanchuk in China in 2017. It looked kinda fixed to me, with Prates fighting under the name Carlos Vega. He didn’t throw a punch the entire fight and just wrapped up Romanchuk and allowed him to wing punches at his shoulders until he called the ref over and told him to stop the fight. Anyways, I digress. I think this fight goes to the judges’ scorecards.

Photo by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

UFC 305 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

What else are you liking for this event? Hit us up in the comments below.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 305 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the “Main Card” play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

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