UFC 307’s Best Betting Props, Parlays And Picks

UFC 307 is live this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Alex Periera vs. Khalil Rountree for the UFC Light Heavyweight title. Checkout the odds for that surprising title fight (and much more) right here!

UFC 307 goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) from inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event features one of the faces of the promotion — Alex Pereira. He is due to defend his Light Heavyweight title against surprise contender, Khalil Rountree. The co-main event sees another title on the line. This time it’s Raquel Pennington’s women’s Bantamweight strap. She’ll defend that against former champ, and bitter rival, Julianna Pena.

Also on UFC 307’s PPV main card is Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista, Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira and Kevin Holland vs. Roman Dolidze.

The “Prelims” headliner is Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley. Other notable fights on the undercard include Tecia Pennington vs. Carla Esparza, Court McGee vs. Tim Means and Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux (we hope).

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 307 Main Card Money Line Odds

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Alex Periera (-525) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+360)

It’s pretty obvious why Alex Pereira is such a big favorite in this match-up. He’s facing a challenger, in Khalil Rountree Jr., who has not fought his way through the ranks and earned the number one contender spot. Instead this challenger was in the right place at the right time. Rountree is here because the UFC wanted to trot out one of their hottest properties for the third time this year. With Francis Ngannou’s debut with PFL next week, I wouldn’t be surprised if giving Pereira such a short turnaround, against whatever opponent they could find, was part of a ploy to suck cash from fans who might have been otherwise tempted to spend their PPV budget on Ngannou’s first MMA fight since he beat Ciryl Gane in 2022.

Regardless how we got here, though, we’ve got a fight this weekend for the UFC Light Heavyweight title. Pereira is undefeated in this weight-class having edged by Jan Blachowicz, stopped Jiri Prochazka twice (the second time in far more brutal fashion that the first — see it here) and Jamahal Hill (check it out here).

The 13-5 Rountree is coming off stoppages over Anthony Smith (see it here) and Chris Daukaus (see it here). Prior to this purple patch he was stopped by Ion Cutelaba (see it here) and Johnny Walker (see it here).

Rountree has one shot KO power, so you can never rule him out completely. And he may be the hardest puncher Pereira has ever fought in a cage. If you really wanted to build a case for Rountree you could also imagine that Pereira might be overlooking him here and may not fight with the same sharpness or intensity that has made him a household name for MMA fans.

However, you simply can’t look past the fact that Pereira might be the greatest KO artist in UFC history. And he’s in a match-up with a guy who is known to just stand and bang. The smart pick here is Pereira measuring up Rountree over a round and then landing his fabled left hook sometime in the second.

Pereira’s Achilles’ Heel is his takedown defense and grappling. And Rountree is not the guy to test that. In 15 UFC contests he is yet to attempt a single takedown and his submission attempts per 15 minutes are 0.1.

So if you want to bet on Rountree you must really believe he can hit Pereira on the chin. Rountree’s significant striking accuracy is 39%. Pereira’s is 63%. So if you want to take a chance on Rountree, be my guest, but I’m not letting the War Horse anywhere near my money. I’ll stick with Poatan, thanks.

Best bet: Alex Pereira To Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-330)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Raquel Pennington (-170) vs. Julianna Pena (+140)

Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena have plenty of history and bad blood. But I will be shocked if any of that materializes into a fight that’s actually fun to watch. I think we all know what’s waiting for us here, a low volume/intensity kickboxing match with Pena trying, and likely failing, to get takedowns.

Pennington is the favorite and I think that’s because she’s so defensively sound and skilled at plodding her way to decisions. I think she’ll win this bout, by stuffing Pena’s slow and telegraphed takedowns, while out pointing her with a very low risk boxing game that racks up strikes landed but comes nowhere near producing a finish.

I think the best bet here is based less around who wins, but how they win. And this one seems like it will be heading to a decision. 11 of Pennington’s 13 UFC wins have come via decision. The only exceptions are her submissions over Macy Chiasson (see it here), Jessica Andrade, and Ashlee Evans-Smith.

Pena has finished more of her fights than Pennington has, including a couple of ground and pound TKOs to begin her UFC career and then a very famous submission over the GOAT Amanda Nunes in 2022 (see that here).

There are some interesting options when it comes to betting this fight to go the distance.

You can get Pennington by decision at +100 and Pena by decision at +275. The fight ending by decision, regardless who wins, is -250.

For the betters who are feeling bold you can also get Pennington or Pena to win by split/majority decision at +500 and +900 respectively. Their odds to win a unanimous decision are +140 and +350.

I think Pennington via unanimous decision is the most likely outcome, but I’d play it safe in this bout (we’re in Salt Lake City and might get some strange judging as a result) and go for the shortest odds available.

Best bet: Exact Method of Victory – Decision (-250)

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Jose Aldo (+120) vs. Mario Bautista (-140)

Jose Aldo looked great in May, when he totally nullified Jonathan Martinez in front of an adoring crowd in Rio. Aldo looked somewhat like his younger self in that bout. But I’m left wondering if part of the reason why was that Martinez seemed to be totally swallowed up by the occasion. Martinez looked incredibly gun shy in that fight and totally off his game. He was also very emotional once the fight was over.

Mario Bautista is not as difficult an opponent as Martinez was, in my opinion. Though Aldo remains the underdog here (he was +145 against Martinez). Bautista is coming off a unanimous decision over Ricky Simon, which has to go down as the best win of his career.

Bautista is going to try to take down Aldo and punish him on the ground. He’s a position over submission guy, but he’s skilled at pouncing on a submission when the opportunity is there. He’s got 44% accuracy on his takedowns and lands 2.25 of them every 15 minutes. On the ground he attempts a single submission per 15 minutes.

Aldo is famous for his takedown defense. It’s currently clocked at 91%. He stuffed all two of Martinez’s attempts (Martinez has a 35% success rate). More telling, though, is that Aldo was able to stuff all 16 takedown attempts from current Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili when they fought in 2022.

I don’t think enough time has passed for us to downgrade Aldo’s skills in this department. If he can stay on his feet against Dvalishvili (who would take Petr Yan down a ton in his next bout) he can do so against Bautista.

So I think this fight will take place mainly on the feet. Aldo is still a fantastic striker, though I don’t expect him to show much stopping power at this stage of his career. And his defense should be enough to prevent Bautista landing anything hard.

Since I think this is going to a decision, and since Aldo is the underdog, I think taking Aldo with some points is a pretty safe bet.

Best bet: Jose Aldo +3.5 (-190)

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Ketlen Vieira (+550) vs. Kayla Harrison (-950)

Kayla Harrison did what we expected her to do in her Octagon debut. She rag-dolled and submitted Holly Holm without too much trouble (see it here). She did this as a -450 favorite. The biggest question mark about that fight was whether or not Harrison could make weight at 135 lbs, given that she fought 20 lbs higher than that in PFL.

Harrison, unlike many fighters — especially in the women’s division, seems to have a very healthy and well-funded infrastructure around her. That enabled her to make the weight then and I think she’ll do the same here.

Without questions over her making weight, I have very little doubts that she will dominate and defeat Ketlen Vieira.

Vieira was an interesting prospect at one point and she’s got some great names on her resume (Cat Zingano, Sara McMann, Miesha Tate, Holly Holm). However, I think it’s fair to say she met all those former champs and challengers at very fortuitous times in her career.

Vieira has a fantastic takedown defense of 92%. But there’s takedown defense against the field and there’s takedown defense against Kayla Harrison.

The odds on Harrison winning are incredibly short (and getting shorter) and it’s hard to find much value on the various prop bets that are available. The best value, on something that is plausible, is on odds relating to the fight going deep or the distance.

Harrison finished Holm in the second round, but she doesn’t finish all her fights. 25% of her wins are by decision and that’s against some fighters who wouldn’t get an invite on the Contender Series.

Aspen Ladd took her to a decision last year. In 2022 Marina Mokhnatkina managed to see the judges scorecards. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vieira (a BJJ black belt under Andre Pederneiras) could avoid being choked on the ground and get us to the final bell here.

Best bet: Exact Method of Victory – Decision (-125)

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Roman Dolidze (+135) vs. Kevin Holland (-160)

Roman Dolidze’s last fight was a real stinker. He came in on short notice to fight Anthony Smith, someone he’s trained with the past. And together they put on a tepid sparring match which Dolidze won, via decision, without either men getting (or trying to get) out of first gear.

Kevin Holland’s last fight was much more exciting. He got dropped by Michal Oleksiejczuk, but than caught the Pole in a fight ending armbar (see that here, it was a weird one). That win snapped a two fight losing skid for Holland, who was previously beaten by Michael Page and Jack Della Maddalena, both by decision.

I like Dolidze in this match-up, especially if he can test Holland’s famed wrestling weakness. Dolidze is not a wrestle-centric fighter, but he can be a willing takedown artist. He didn’t have success with it in his last ‘real fight’, when he went 0-4 in a loss against Nassourdine Imavov. He was 0-1 in a loss to Marvin Vettori, too. Those guys have very good takedown defense, though.

I think Dolidze will be a willing wrestler in this bout, partly due to Holland’s five inch reach advantage.

I like Dolidze to win this one straight up, but I like the point spread in this bout, too.

Best bet: Roman Dolidze +3.5 (-175)

UFC 307 ‘Late Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Stephen Thompson (+170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-200)

Joaquin Buckley is on a good run right now. He cruised past the lanky Nursulton Ruziboev to win a unanimous decision in the headliner of a bout in his own backyard. I think his ability to handle the pressure of performing in that slot said a lot about him. That makes me think he’s not going to get nervous or anxious here against a big name who he really should beat.

His win over Ruziboav came after finishes over Vicente Luque (see it here) and Andre Fialho (see it here) and a decision over Alex Morono. Those wins mean he is undefeated since dropping down to Welterweight.

Stephen Thompson drew the short straw in the division by having to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov last time out. He was submitted in round two by the super prospect who has since graduated to contender (see it here). In 2022 he beat Kevin Holland, forcing Holland to retire on the stool after four great rounds of action.

Prior to that win he lost to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns.

Thompson heads into this bout at 41 years of age, over a decade older than Buckley.

Sadly, I think Thompson is going to get into a fire fight that he can’t win in this bout. Buckley hits like a truck and I don’t know if Thompson is quick enough to avoid his big shots. Buckley might also hit a takedown here and there, too, like he did against Ruziboev.

Despite believing that Thompson will get hit, I still think he can go the distance here. Thompson is tough as nails, despite his pretty boy looks. He’s only been stopped with strikes once in his career, a superman punch from Anthony Pettis (see it here).

Buckley does hit hard, but he also spends a lot of time missing (36% accuracy on significant strikes). I think he will hurt Thompson, but I don’t think he has the accuracy to land a one shot KO on him or to land a combo that can put Thompson out. Instead I think we’ll see an entertaining fight with a bloodied Thompson losing on the scorecards.

Best bet: Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-185)

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Marina Rodriguez (+145) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-175)

Iasmin Lucindo looked really good against the veteran Karolina Kowalkiewiz at UFC 301. In that fight she went 83 of 136 (61%) with significant strikes and landed a couple of takedowns for good measure.

Marina Rodriguez is coming off a split decision loss to Jessica Andrade at UFC 300. Before that she was one of a few fighters to beat the heck out of Michelle Waterson-Gomez. Prior to that win she was beaten by Virna Jandiroba and Amanda Lemos.

I think this is going to be a really fun fight with lots of close striking exchanges on the feet. I do agree with the oddsmakers here in favoring Lucindo, who is younger and faster than Rodriguez. Lucindo also has an ability to change the dimension of the fight through her takedowns (53% accuracy on those).

Rodriguez is still a pretty effective striker, but it’s seems pretty easy to take her out of that game. Andrade was able to control her for close to four minutes in their fight. Jandiroba got her down three times and held her for over 12 minutes.

I like Lucindo to edge her out on the feet and use her wrestling, when she needs ot, to get the result here.

Best bet: Iasmin Lucindo (-175)

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Cesar Almeida (-400) vs. Ihor Potieria (+300)

Cesar Almeida was not all he was cracked up to be when we saw him lose a decision to Roman Kopylov in June. He was the slight favorite in that fight, having come off a TKO over Dylan Budka in his first non Contender Series UFC fight. The former GLORY fighter was billed as a devastating striker, but he just couldn’t get it going against Kopylov; who was first to the punch and able to land 5 of 9 takedown attempts and hold Almeida down for almost two entire rounds.

I think the matchmakers have given Almeida a break in sending him in against Ihor Potieira. Potieria was choked out cold by Michel Pereira early this year (see it here). That was the fourth loss for the Ukrainian in UFC (with all those losses being stoppages).

Potieria doesn’t have a wrestling game, so he’s got nothing to threaten the kickboxer with. Almeida should be skilled enough to land something on Potieria’s compromised chin and wrap this one up well within the distance.

Prediction: Under 1.5 rounds (-140)

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Austin Hubbard (+150) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-180)

Austin Hubbard used his wrestling to beat Michal Figlak in the APEX earlier this year. Alexander Hernandez is coming off a split decision loss to Damon Jackson (in a bout he missed weight for).

Hernandez might be fighting for his career at UFC 307. He’s lost two in a row and four of his last five. Those losses include a comeback standing TKO against Billy Quarantillo (see it here) and a submission to Conqueror of Paris Renato Moicano (see it here). Things just haven’t panned out for him since his shocking debut TKO win over Beneil Dariush back in 2018 (see it here).

I think Hubbard will be the more disciplined fighter and win a similar fight to what we saw against Figlak, one punctuated by reactive takedowns.

Best bet: Austin Hubbard (+150)

UFC 307 ‘Late Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Ryan Spann (-330) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+255)

We were supposed to see this one a couple of weeks ago down in the APEX. However, Ovince Saint Preux got sick. So now we’re moving the fight over to Utah.

Ryan Spann is coming off a bad TKO loss to Bogdan Guskov (see it here), a split decision loss to Anthony Smith, and a triangle choke loss to Nikita Krylov (see it here). I actually picked against Spann the first time this bout was scheduled, because I didn’t like how soon it was coming after that loss to Guskov.

With that extra time to heal, though, I’m now picking Spann to get the win over the veteran.

The 41-year-old OSP looked OK when he took a split decision over Kennedy Nzechukwu in March. OSP got that win as a +500 underdog. That followed a KO loss to Philipe Lins, though (see it here).

I think Spann will be too big and athletic for OSP to handle. Both these guys are very hittable, but I think it’s more likely that Spann rocks OSP than the other way around (despite the success OSP had on the feet against Nzechukwu).

The oddsmakers have set the over/under on this for 1.5 rounds. I think that’s way too short. Spann might not rush in like he did against Guskov and OSP is a patient figther who should be able to defend himself past the first round, at least.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-120)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Carla Esparza (+145) vs. Tecia Pennington (-175)

Carla Esparza is returning from a two year hiatus here to take on Tecia Pennington, someone she beat by majority decision back in the TUF house in 2014. Esparza’s last fight was a crucifix RNC at the hands of Zhang Weili (see it here). That cost her the UFC Strawweight title.

Pennington is coming off of two split decision losses to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern.

Pennington’s career is one of close decisions. She’s lost lots of split decisions, but she’s also been on the either end of unanimous decisions that were very close to call.

Both these women have fought the who’s who of 115 lbs. And both are on the wrong side of 35.

The big question here is how does Esparza look after all that time off? I think the lay-off is mostly why we have Esparza at plus odds. Historically, she’s been far better than Pennington of sealing the deal in a fight and doing the things you need to do to erase doubt among judges.

Without the lay-off I’d pick Esparza. With this current situation (Esparza has also announced this is her retirement fight) I lean Pennington. However, this is a fight tailor made for over, goes the distance, ends by split decision picks (which you can parlay with other stuff).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-660)

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Court McGee (+175) vs. Tim Means (-210)

This fight has Spike TV written all over it. When I close my eyes and think about it, I see the guitars on the wall of the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino and can hear Mike Goldberg telling us their reach is “virtually identical.”

Court McGree and Tim Means both come into UFC 307 as 40-year-olds. McGee is on a three fight losing streak which includes brutal KOs from Matt Brown (see it here) and Jeremiah Wells (see it here).

Means was sparked out by Uros Medic in April (see it here). He’s lost four of his last five, including submission losses to Alex Morono and Kevin Holland.

I like Means because I think age has done less to sap his striking game than it has to sap McGee’s wrestling/grinding game. McGee may spend a lot of this fight pressing into Means, giving The Dirty Bird lots of opportunities to use his Thai clinch to land nasty knees and test McGee’s damaged chin.

Best bet: Tim Means (-205)

UFC 307 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for those folks who want to put a little on something that might come with a big return.

Five-pick parlay: Esparza vs. Pennington Over 2.5, Spann vs. Saint Preux Over 1.5, Rodriguez vs. Lucindo Over 2.5, Thompson vs. Buckley Over 2.5, Pennington vs. Pena Over 4.5 (+452)

Some of these fights seem very certain to go the distance (both Pennginton bouts), but I like all these to go the distance, if not just long enough to trigger the win. I think Spann vs. OSP’s line is especially odd and is giving both men too much credit offensively (and OSP not enough credit defensively).

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. – Fight to end in 1st 60 Seconds of Round 1 – Yes (+800)

Many folks are confident that Pereira is going to starch Rountree in this fight. Who says it doesn’t happen in the first round? I think Pereira might want to feel it out for a round before really attacking, but if Rountree tries to catch Pereira cold he could be countered and slept in 60 seconds or less.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison – Point to be Deducted – YES (+2000)

You know I love this one. It has to hit eventually, right? I think this is a good candidate for the bet. Vieira might grab the fence or Harrison might get too handsy on the gloves or shorts. Of course we need a referee with the guts to deduct a point, though.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 307 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 307: “Pereira vs. Rountree” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.