UFC 308’s Best Betting Props, Parlays And Picks

UFC 308 is live this weekend (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway for the Featherweight title. Checkout the odds for that banger of a fight (and much more) right here!

UFC 308 goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024) from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event sees Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, making his first-ever title defense. His challenger is the “BMF” — and some folks’ Featherweight G.O.A.T. — Max Holloway.

UFC 308’s co-headliner features Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev. This was supposed to go down in Saudi Arabia earlier this year; however, Chimaev pulled out the fight (even though it wasn’t in the United States). Hopefully, this one actually happens. In addition to the main- and co-main events, we’ve got Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige, Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan and Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic.

The hits keep coming on the “Prelims”, too. We’ve got Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos, Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira and Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 308 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ilia Topuria (-245) vs. Max Holloway (+200)

The second happiest person in the world when Topuria flattened Alexander Volkanovski (see it here) was probably Holloway. By unseating Volkanovski as Featherweight champion, “El Matador” opened the door for “Blessed” to get back in the title picture.

Topuria’s sensational win over Volkanovski moved him to 15-0 (7-0) in UFC and followed a decision over Josh Emmett, submission over Bryce Mitchell and knockout over Jai Herbert (see it here).

Holloway comes into this one off his “Fight/Finish of the Year” against Justin Gaethje, which featured a moment that will live on in MMA history (see it in all it’s glory here). That super-fight for the BMF belt came after Holloway retired Chan Sung Jung with a knockout in Singapore (see it here). Before that, Holloway bested Arnold Allen by decision. Those wins came after Holloway lost his trilogy bout to Volkanovski and unsuccessfully challenged for the belt he lost to Volk back in 2019.

I’m shocked that Holloway is this big of an underdog in this match-up.

Topuria has looked deadly in the Octagon. His right hook is an extremely potent weapon and his ground game is punishing, both with strikes and an arsenal of chokes.

However, this is Max Holloway, man.

Holloway hasn’t been this big of an underdog since he lost to Conor McGregor in 2013. He was +250 that night. Destiny was on McGregor’s side during that time and Holloway was yet to morph into the elite fighter we know and love.

Holloway was a +155 underdog in the Gaethje match. He was a +160 dog in the most recent Volkanovski fight. And +170 in their second fight. The only other UFC fights he’s had plus odds for were his first fights with Jose Aldo and Dustin Poirier and his bouts with Cub Swanson, Andre Fili and Dennis Bermudez.

He’s 4-5 in these situations.

Topuria had +115 odds when he beat Volkanovski. He was also +135 in his debut UFC win over Youssef Zalal. He’s been a decent-sized favorite in all his other bouts.

Topuria vs. Holloway feels like a recipe for a striking battle. Holloway lands a ridiculous 7.17 significant strikes per minute and leads the promotion in both total strikes landed and total significant strikes landed.

Topuria lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute. That’s pretty average.

Holloway is second in the division for knockdowns landed (10). However, he doesn’t crack the Top 10 for knockdowns per 15 minutes. Topuria does, though (with 0.94).

These numbers, and the eye test, make it pretty clear that Topuria has the power advantage against Holloway. Though, we’ve seen Holloway’s relentless offense wear down many fighters and make them unable to compete, despite not knocking them down or getting the finish over them.

When it comes to accuracy, their stats are pretty similar. Topuria’s is 46 percent on significant strikes (Holloway’s is 48 percent). If all these two do is strike and both land at a rate that we’re used to seeing from them, we’ll have a race to see whether Topuria’s knockout blow will take affect before Holloway’s heavy pitter-patter strikes grind him down. If Topuria can weather Holloway’s storm then he will have a chance to land his right hook.

If he does land it, though, will Holloway go down?

Holloway has never been stopped with strikes. That’s remarkable given the level of competition he’s faced over his career. His only stoppage loss was a triangle to Poirier in his UFC debut in 2012.

Age cracks iron chins, though. But, you know what else is remarkable about Holloway? He’s only 32. He’s older in fight years, sure. But his smart approach to training and sparring likely means he’s taken less damage between fights than many of his aging peers.

If Topuria is able to land his best shot and Holloway keeps coming forwards, we might see Topuria change tactics. He lands 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and has an above average accuracy at 56 percent. Holloway’s takedown defense is elite at 84 percent, though.

Despite his short odds here, I think Topuria is going to struggle with Holloway. I doubt he will be able to finish him with his right hook or keep him down long enough to threaten with a choke. Because of that, I think we’re going to see a five-round fight of mostly striking. I think Topuria will win this, though, perhaps thanks to one or two takedowns across the fight.

But, it’s going to be close.

I think it’s also worth asking a question about Topuria and distractions. When I searched his name in our image database, I had to wade through 30 pages of pictures to find images of him actually fighting. The pictures in our database between now and his Volkanovski win are all red carpet shots or images of appearances in soccer stadiums or opposite politicians and dignitaries. I’m pretty sure Holloway’s just been training an chilling with his family.

The oddsmakers like a finish in this fight. Under 4.5 rounds is -130 and Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ is just +175. I don’t think these lines show enough respect for Holloway’s skill or toughness.

I’m not confident enough in him to pick him for the upset. But, I do think he can last all five rounds against Topuria and that presents a number of options at plus odds.

Over 4.5 rounds is +100. Fight goes the distance is +120. Fight to be won by unanimous decision is +180. And Topuria by decision is +250. Of all these, I like over 4.5 rounds (since that saves our butt if Holloway points to the center of the cage and these two go nuts with 10 seconds left).

Best bet: Over 4.5 rounds (+100)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Robert Whittaker (+205) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-250)

If you can find a prop on whether this fight actually happens, I’d be interested in betting the ‘no’. Khamzat Chimaev has proven that he doesn’t deserve a lot of trust when it comes to showing up. Some of that seems beyond his control. He might be a long COVID sufferer. However, his lack of activity has shifted from notable to curious in the last few years.

The last time we saw him was when he took a majority decision over Kamaru Usman just over a year ago. You have to go back another year for his fight prior to that one, his easy d’arce win over Kevin Holland (see that here). In fighting Holland in September 2022 (on the night he was supposed to fight Nate Diaz) Chimaev managed to fight twice in a year for the first time since 2020 (when he blew onto the scene with three stoppage wins).

Because we’ve seen so little of him in the last four years, the myth around Chimaev still somewhat exists. Plenty of people still believe he can smesh anyone in the division and that he’s a champion in waiting. However, he turned 30 in May. He’s not peaking, athletically, anymore. And if his lungs or “immunity” are in bad enough shape to hamper his ability to fight then we may have already seen his ceiling. It’s so hard to know that, though, because he rarely ever competes!

There’s certainly enough question marks for me to not just assume he can walk through Robert Whittaker.

Whittaker beat-up Ikram Aliskerov like the dude owed him money when they met in Riyadh in June (see it here). That followed a unanimous decision over Paulo Costa and his TKO loss to Dricus Du Plessis. Since 2014 Whittaker has only lost to present and future Middleweight champions (Du Plessis and twice to Israel Adesanya).

This fight is all about the takedown and whether Chimaev will be able to hit it repeatedly on Whittaker. Chimaev attempts a lot of them. His accuracy is 46%, which has been good enough for 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Against Usman he went 4-12 on takedowns. Usman had a takedown defensive rating of over 90% when they fought. He went 2-3 on takedowns against Gilbert Burns. Burns takedown defense is 53%.

Whittaker has an 83% takedown defense. Du Plessis took him down once on one attempt. The only other fighter he’s faced at Middleweight who uses takedowns as a point of emphasis was Yoel Romero, who only succeeded four times on 18 attempts (22%) back in 2017.

I think Chimaev may be able to get Whittaker down a once or twice, but not on repeat. For me that makes a submission less likely. I do think there could be a finish in this fight, though. Whittaker hits like a truck, but is also there to be hit. Chimaev hits hard, too, but we’ve not seen his chin really tested.

The most Chimaev has ever been hit was during his fight with Burns where he gave up 119 significant strikes (89 to the head). Burns is a good boxer, but he doesn’t have fight changing/ending power. Whittaker does, though.

This fight is too close to call for me, but I do feel like this fight might be heading for a decision, partly because I believe Chimaev might be in decline.

The over/under is 2.5 rounds with -110 for the over and -120 for the under. This is a five round fight and I think these two may spend the first round feeling each other out. Because of that I feel like this total is a little low. I think this fight sees a third round, at least, and I like the odds you can get on that.

Best bet: Fight to Start Round 3 – YES (-140)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Lerone Murphy (-240) vs. Dan Ige (+195)

Lerone Murphy looked excellent last time out, overwhelming Edson Barboza for the best win of his career. Dan Ige is coming off a bizarre situation where he replaced Brian Ortega to fight Diego Lopes on fight day. Ige held his own against Lopes, but I think part of that was down to Lopes having a bit of an off night (due to the strange circumstances around the fight).

Murphy put on a range fighting masterclass against Barboza when they met and tagged him with 220 significant strikes, with 78% of them going to the head. It didn’t take long for his relentless left jab, followed by a piston like right, to take the steam out of Barboza and allow him to cruise to a five round victory. Murphy was also a beast in the clinch during that fight, too.

If he fights like that against Ige, I think he’ll have a lot of success. He was able to beat Barboza in a range battle despite having a two inch reach disadvantage. He’ll have a two inch advantage over Ige. He’s also slightly taller, too, which could help in the clinch.

Murphy also used takedowns in the Barboza fight, going 4-6 and using them to punctuate rounds. Ige has good takedown defense, but he’s done his best work against Bryce Mitchell and Nate Landwher in that respect. I think he might struggle to defend against Murphy’s takedowns, who uses them after establishing his striking. Murphy should be able to occupy Ige’s mind with evading punches and then use that to set up his takedowns.

Best bet: Lerone Murphy via unanimous decision (-115)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Magomed Ankalaev (-390) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (+290)

Ankalaev is a big favorite against Rakic. Last time out, he melted Johnny Walker with an uppercut (see it here). Prior to that, he had that weird “No Contest” with Walker and the sleep-inducing draw with Jan Blachowicz. Prior to those outcomes he was on a nine-fight win streak with wins over the usual suspects at Light Heavyweight. The only loss on his record remains the Hail Mary submission Paul Craig caught him with in his UFC debut.

Rakic is coming off a technical knockout loss to Jiri Porchazka (see it here). Before that, he was out for around two years because of a knee injury suffered in his fight against Jan Blachowicz (see it here). Rakic had beaten Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith before that fight. Prior to those wins his lost a split decision to Volkan Oezdemir (a robbery by the judges).

I really don’t like this match-up for Rakic. I’m not sure he can withstand Ankalaev’s power on the feet, let alone on the ground.

I think we’re either going to see Ankalaev get a technical knockout win or 30-27 scores across the board. The point spread covers that for us.

Best bet: Magomed Ankalaev -3.5 (-150)

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Shara Magomedov (-160) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+135)

Magomedov improved to 14-0 with his workman-like win over Michel Oleksiejczuk in August. “Shara-Bullet” looked decent in that bout, chipping away at Oleksiejczuk from range and being somewhat measured with his flashy stuff. This was a tailor made opponent for his style, though, someone who would kickbox with him for three rounds.

He’s been given the same sort of opponent this time around, too. Armen Petrosyan only attempts 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and has just a 33 percent success rate.

Petrosyan is coming off a first round submission loss to Rodolfo Vieira in February (see it here). Before that, he took a decision over Christian Leroy Duncan.

This is going to be another showcase fight for Magomedov and his boosters will be hoping to see him finish Petrosyan. I don’t think that’s going to happen, though. Petrosyan has good defense on the feet. He absorbs just 2.90 sig. strikes per minute and has a 56 percent significant strike defense.

He held Duncan to just 59 significant strikes and most of those were leg kicks. Only 23 of those strikes landed on his head. He also held Gregory Rodrigues to just 61 significant strikes when they met.

In addition to doubting that Magomedov will stop Petrosyan, I also think Petrosyan will be able to take at least a round off Magomedov. That makes the point spread very appealing.

Best bet: Armen Petrosyan +3.5 (-175)

UFC 308 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Geoff Neal (-310) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+245)

Both Neal and dos Anjos are coming off very tough assignments. Neal is coming off losses to Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Dos Anjos is coming off losses to Mateusz Gamrot and Vicente Luque.

There’s questions over how much either of these guys have left in the tank.

Neal has a ton of size on the former Lightweight champ. He’s three inches taller and has five inches of reach over him. I think Neal will be able to impose his striking game in this bout. Dos Anjos will want this bout to hit the ground, but I think he’ll struggle to get it there. Neal has an 87 percent takedown defense and he shutout Belal Muhammad when they fought back in 2019. Only him, Demian Maia and Gilbert Burns have managed to do that.

Dos Anjos has been finished before, by the fast hands of Rafael Fiziev (see it here) and Eddie Alvarez. Neal’s got good power and hand speed, so he might be able to get dos Anjos out of there.

On DraftKings you can bet “To Win by Finish,” which voids the bet if there’s a decision. I like that play here.

Best bet: Geoff Neal To Win by Finish – YES (+165)

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Myktybek Orolbai (-330) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+255)

Orolbai had a barn-burner of a fight opposite Elves Brener last time out. He was hurt in that fight but was able to gut out a decision. That took his pro record to 13-1-1 and stretched his UFC record to 2-0. His other Octagon win was a neck crank over Uros Medic (see it here).

Rebecki is coming off terrible beating he took from the hands of Diego Ferreira. Ferreira dominated Rebecki on the feet in that fight and won with a late technical knockout (see it here). Rebecki was a -500 favorite in that bout.

He had been unbeaten in UFC prior to that with an armbar on Roosevelt Roberts (as a -625 favorite) and a knockout over Loik Radzhabov (as a -155 favorite). He made his proper UFC debut as a -800 favorite and beat Nick Fiore via unanimous decision.

Orolbai has a massive eight-inch reach advantage over Rebecki. He will have the edge in the striking, but I think a lot of this fight will take place on the ground.

Both these guys have great ground games so we could see a lot of fun exchanges here. Orolbai is the more dogged wrestler, executing a crazy 7.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. Rebecki is more choosey and clinical with his takedowns (75 percent accuracy). I favor Orolbai in the match-up, because I think he’ll be able to hurt Rebecki with strikes and that will make things easier for him on the ground.

I think we’re heading for a finish, though.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-115)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Abus Magomedov (-140) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+120)

Ferreira is a bad man. Last time out he blasted Dustin Stoltzfus with a spinning elbow for a first round knockout (see it here). Before that, he obliterated Phil Hawes with a flying knee (check it out here). Before that, he was knocked out himself by a Nursulton Ruziboev counter (see it here). And before that, he KO’d Robocop Gregory Rodrigues (see it here).

The Brazilian brawler is 12-1 and yet to see round three, let along the judges.

Magomedov is coming off a decision win over Warlley Alves. That win came after he was well beaten by both Caio Borralho and Sean Strickland.

Magomedov will have a six-inch reach advantage over Ferreira. That might be a reason for these betting lines. I’m not concerned by that, though. He’s had a reach disadvantage against everyone he’s KO’d in UFC. His spinning and leaping attacks could give the rather stiff and hittable Magomedov a lot of trouble here.

Best bet: Brunno Ferreira moneyline (+120)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-800) vs. Chris Barnett (+475)

Nzechukwu will make his UFC Heavyweight debut in Abu Dhabi. He’ll face Barnett now, after both Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Justin Tafa pulled out. Nzechukwu moves up in weight after a split decision loss to Ovince Saint Preux and a technical knockout defeat to Dustin Jacoby (see it here).

Barnett is returning after a two-year absence. He was supposed to fight Junior Tafa two weeks ago, but pulled out due to Hurricane Milton.

We last saw Barnett when he stopped Jake Collier in a fight where he came in too heavy for Heavyweight.

The under is the play here. Nzechukwu has only been to a decision five times in 17 fights, while Barnett has seen the judges just nine times in 31 fights.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-130)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Farid Basharat (-850) vs. Victor Hugo (+500)

Basharat is coming off a unanimous decision win over Taylor Lapilus in January. That’s a very good win, especially with how good Lapilus has looked since then. That win took him to 12-0 and 3-0 in UFC.

Hugo won his UFC debut in April with a unanimous decision over Pedro Falcao.

Basharat is the biggest favorite on the card and I see no reason to doubt him here. DraftKings only has the moneyline and total rounds bet on this fight. I think Basharat probably takes a unanimous decision victory here.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-238)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-270) vs. Carlos Leal (+220)

Carlos Leal is coming in on short notice for Nursulton Ruziboev. He’ll be making his UFC debut at the Etihad. His career has mostly been spent in PFL. Rinat Fakhretdinov took a split decision over Nicolas Dalby at UFC Saudi Arabia earlier this year.

All we have is the moneyline. I think Leal is a decent underdog, but I lean toward the favorite given the extenuating circumstances.

Best bet: Rinat Fakhretdinov moneyline (-270)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ibo Aslan (+100) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (-120)

Ibo Aslan trucked Anton Turkalj with a third round overhand right to win his UFC debut in March (see it here). That followed a first round technical knockout win on Contender Series. He’s won all 13 of his pro victories (technical) knockout.

Raffael Cerquiera is a 34-year-old UFC debutante. He’s never fought outside of Brazil. He’s been given a shot on the big show after losing two Contender Series opponents to injuries.

I’m a little puzzled by these lines. Aslan seems to have a far higher ceiling than Cerquiera.

Best bet: Ibo Aslan moneyline (+100)

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ismail Naurdiev (-170) vs. Bruno Silva (+125)

Silva has been through the ringer in his UFC career. He’s 4-5 in the promotion and on a three fight losing skid. Last time out he lost an eye poke induced technical decision to Chris Weidman (see it here). Before that he lost a decision to Shara Magomedov and was choked out by Brendan Allen (see it here). He was also one of the first victims served up to Alex Pereira (though he escaped their fight with a unanimous decision loss).

Naurdiev fought for the UFC in 2019 and 2020, getting wins over Michel Prazeres and Siyar Bahadurzada. He was released after a loss to Sean Brady. He has been in Brave CF since then. He’s spent most of his career as a Welterweight. He won his Middleweight debut in his last fight (in December).

Silva is 35 and I expect him to drop a pretty forgettable fight against the hometown favorite here.

Best bet: Ismail Naurdiev moneyline (-170)

UFC 308 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for those folks who want to put a little on something that might come with a big return.

Max Holloway to win by split/majority decision (+1100)

Topuria is young in his championship reign. And, though, we saw him take the belt from a great, in the form of Volkanovski, he’s still rather untested. Holloway is the definition of battle-tested. There is a great chance this fight goes to a decision and if it does, why couldn’t Holloway sneak it on the scorecards? That line seems massive for something which doesn’t seem too far out the realms of possibilities.

Max Holloway vs. Ilia Topuria – Fight to end in the last 10 seconds of round 5 – YES (+7500)

There’s been some chatter between these two about whether we’ll see a throw down in the center of the Octagon. Topuria has suggested they do it to start the fight. Holloway has said Topuria hasn’t earned such a callout from him. If this fight goes long, then maybe Topuria does enough to encourage Max to point to the center of the cage when he hears that last ten second warning? If it happens it could open Holloway up for Topuria’s crushing right hook.

Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan – Point to Be Deducted – YES (+2000)

I’m still thinking about the bad beat I had when Jason Herzog refused to deduct a point from Magomedov for a blatant fence grab. “Shara Bullet” is still nutty so the point deduction bet is still in play. Hopefully, we get Chris Tognoni in this fight (he deducted a point from Jake Hadley for an eye poke last weekend).

---

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 308 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 10:00 a.m. ET, before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 2 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 308: “Topuria vs. Holloway” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.