UFC 310’s Best Betting Props, Parlays & Picks

UFC 310 is live this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura for the Flyweight title. Checkout the odds for that title fight (and much more) right here!

UFC 310 goes down this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) inside the familiar T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event will feature Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, attempting to defend his title for a third time. His controversial challenger is former RIZIN champion, Kai Asakura, who will be making his Octagon debut.

It’s a “special mission.”

UFC 310’s co-main event is a match-up of top Welterweight title contenders. Shavkat Rakhmonov was supposed to challenge Belal Muhammad for the belt; however, Muhammad’s toe had other ideas. Ian Machado Garry comes in as the late replacement with hopes of beating “Nomad” and stealing his title shot.

Quickly …

The remainder of UFC 310’s PPV main card includes Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov, Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie and Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi. And if that doesn’t sound stacked enough for you (sorry, Aljo), the “Prelims” include some quality names and match-ups, too.

Indeed, UFC 310’s “Prelims” feature Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith, Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders, Chase Hooper vs. Clay Guida and Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 310 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Alexandre Pantoja (-270) vs. Kai Asakura (+220)

The last time we saw Pantoja, he struggled with the boxing of Steve Erceg. Indeed, at UFC 301 earlier this year, Pantoja was getting beat up on the feet until Erceg made a costly error. The Australian elected to try wrestling a damaged Pantoja. That gave Pantoja a window to recover and then turn the momentum of the fight, using his wrestling and grappling to nullify Erceg.

That was Pantoja’s second title defense. His first was a unanimous decision over Brandon Royval in 2023. Pantoja has not lost since dropping a decision to Askar Akarov in 2020.

Asakura, meanwhile, joins a very small group of fighters who have contended for a UFC title in their Octagon debuts (Ronda Rousey, Liz Carmouche and Dan Henderson if you ignore his early appearance in the tournament-era).

Asakura last competed more than one year ago, at the “RIZIN vs. Bellator” hybrid show. At that event he finished Juan Archuleta, with a knee to the body, to win the RIZIN Bantamweight title for a second time. Prior to that, he beat Yuki Motoya, also with a knee to the body.

Asakura’s record in Japan is a little up and down. In 2020, he was famously KO’d by Kyoji Horiguchi (see it here). That ended his first reign as RIZIN Bantamweight champ.

There’s a bit of UFC myth-making at work here with Asakura. He’s being sold as a dominant force out of Japan. He’s a fun fighter and very dangerous (especially under the RIZIN rule-set), but he’s no world beater. And at 31-years-old, we’ve likely seen his ceiling already.

The biggest advantage he brings to UFC’s Flyweight division is his size. He’s a big Bantamweight at 5’8.” So, he’s projected to be a huge Flyweight. But, he hasn’t made Flyweight in a very long time. And he’s been making Bantamweight in Japan where he was likely allowed several techniques that are banned on this side of the Ocean (like IV drips to re-hydrate). Japan is also notorious for looking the other way on PEDs.

Given where he is coming from, I think Asakura might have a rude awakening in the Octagon in “Sin City.” Also, he’s used to fighting in a ring, not a cage. And he’s used to being able to throw soccer kicks and knees to the head of a grounded opponent (things he’s used to brutal effect in the past).

Asakura’s offense is very fun to watch. And his flying knee is a very potent weapon. But, he’s also very hittable. I don’t think he’ll be able to launch his wild offense at Pantoja without consequences.

Pantoja will likely be able to find Asakura’s chin off the back of Asakura’s big swings. And if and when Asakura launches himself in the air, Pantoja is more likely to grab him and put him down than recoil from a rib-crushing strike.

The oddsmakers agree with me and have Pantoja as a sizable favorite.

His odds in this fight are the shortest they have been since he KO’d Matt Schnell in the first round back in 2019 (he was -310 there).

Asakura can certainly spring a surprise and get a win with one of his wild attacks. But, I’m pretty confident that the more likely outcome is Pantoja fighting a clean and measured fight, avoiding Asakura on the feet and scoring takedowns when the opportunities present themselves (of which there will be many).

Vegas likes the chances of Pantoja winning the fight on the ground (he’s just +165 to get a submission). He’s +275 for a decision win. I lean toward the decision, because I think Pantoja might go position-over-submission and satisfy himself with controlling and beating up Asakura on the ground for long stretches of the fight. If he were to exert himself and hunt for a technical knockout, that would pay out at +400 odds.

DraftKings has a double chance bet of Pantoja to win via submission or decision. That’s -165 and a nice bet if you’re feeling conservative.

I really think this goes to a decision, though. And I don’t think it will be a nail biter of a decision.

Best bet: Alexandre Pantoja via unanimous decision (+350)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-390) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+290)

Someone’s 0 has got to go! And I think it will be Garry who will suffer the sting of defeat for the first time in his career.

Rakhmonov is the big favorite in this fight. And who can deny him that? He’s made mincemeat out of everyone he’s seen in the Octagon thus far, punishing them with his top tier ground and pound and his brutal squeeze.

Last time out, he tapped Stephen Thompson (see it here). Before that, he choked out Geoff Neal (see that here). And prior to that, he guillotined Neil Magny (see it here).

Machado Garry has Magny and Neal on his record, along with Michael Page and Daniel Rodriguez. However, when you look at his wins, those are decisions over Magny, Neal and Page. Indeed, Machado Garry is excellent at MMA; however, he’s not shown as much violent intent and threat as Rakhmonov.

And, like the bookies, I think he’s going to wilt when he faces that kind of violence himself.

When you look at striking stats, Machado Garry lands more significant strikes per minute (5.50 to Rakhmonov’s 4.12). However, he also absorbs slightly more and has the worse accuracy of the two. Rakhmonov’s 61 percent accuracy on significant strikes is very high (partly because his ground and pound seems laser guided at times). That accuracy would put him top in his division if not for the the official stat books needing at least 350 significant strikes landed to justify entry. Rakhmonov has landed 207 significant strikes in his six UFC bouts. He’s limited his opponents to 121 significant strikes over that span (69 of which were landed by Neal).

Add that Rakhmonov has a three-inch reach advantage and I think it’s quite clear that Machado Garry will face an uphill battle in the stand-up.

And if this fight goes to the ground, then it’s likely a wrap. Rakhmonov doesn’t land a lot of takedowns, but his submissions are so good that he doesn’t need many chances to make them count.

I’m very high on Rakhmonov to win this fight. But, I think the most interesting bets are around the over/under. The total has been set at 2.5 rounds for this five-round affair. That feels really low to me (the under is +130 and the over is -166).

Machado Garry is a smart guy. And I think he knows he has to be perfect to win this fight. I think that will translate to the same sort of anti-fighting we saw against Page and Neal. Machado Garry is going to be on his bike and I think it will take Rakhmonov some rounds to catch up to him. It might even go to a decision (Rakhmonov by decision is +275).

My best bet on this fight utilizes DraftKings’ same game parlay and it’s based on my belief that Rakhmonov is far better than Machado Garry, but Machado Garry will be doing his very best to make this fight last a long time.

Best bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov to Win and Over 2.5 rounds (-105)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ciryl Gane (-360) vs. Alexander Volkov (+270)

Vegas is sleeping on Alexander Volkov again. And I’m going to take him … again.

Volkov was a +185 underdog against Sergei Pavlovich in June. And “Drago” tore him apart. Volkov has quietly put together a four-fight win streak (no mean feat at Heavyweight) with stoppages over Tai Tuivasa (see it here), Alexandr Romanov (see it here) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (see it here).

Against Pavlovich, he looked perhaps the best we’ve ever seen him in UFC. His jab was on point and he timed Pavlovich to perfection, busting him up with that straight punch. He was also able to avoid everything Pavlovich, a frightening finisher, was able to throw at him.

Why can’t he do that to Gane?

Gane last fought in Sept. 2023. That’s when he beat-up Serghei Spivac, which is a decent win. Prior to that he was submitted by Jon Jones (see it here).

Gane and Volkov fought back in 2021 with Gane winning by decision. But, I really like Volkov’s improvements since then and I’m concerned about possible ring rust for Gane.

In their first fight, Gane took a unanimous decision thanks to out-landing Volkov on the feet. He landed 135 of 255 significant strikes (53 percent) to Volkov’s 115 of 241 (47 percent). Gane also missed on all four of his takedown attempts. Volkov didn’t attempt any takedowns. Gane did a nice job of mixing up his strikes in the fight, landing a quarter of his shots to the body. Volkov overly relied on leg kicks (which made up almost half his striking offense).

That was the most Volkov has ever targeted an opponent’s legs. I think we’ll see him save on some of those leg kicks this time around and instead put more of effort into his straight punches. If he does that, I think he can disrupt Gane like he did Pavlovich and pull off another upset.

The Volkov moneyline is very tempting for me, since I’m so high on this underdog. I’m going to be conservative, though, and take the points on Volkov. I think this is going to a decision and this way I’m covered unless Gane seriously out-performs him.

Best bet: Alexander Volkov +3.5 (-105)

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Bryce Mitchell (-600) vs. Kron Gracie (+400)

This is a weird fight between two weird guys. I’m not a big fan of either of them and that’s not just because of the nonsense that dribbles out of their brains every time they open their mouths.

Gracie — who hasn’t fought since May 2023 — is the massive underdog here. That’s when he lost a rather embarrassing decision to Charles Jourdain. Prior to that, he dropped a decision to Cub Swanson. His only UFC win was a submission over Alex Caceres in his debut (see that here).

Mitchell, meanwhile, was obliterated by Josh Emmett in his last fight (see that scary first round knockout here). Prior to that, he got past Dan Ige and was submitted by future champion, Ilia Topuria (no shame in that — see it here).

Mitchell and Gracie are going to give each other the fight they want. Gracie is probably the better grappler. But, Mitchell is by far the better athlete and fighter. And Mitchell is also more likely to try and win the fight, instead of trying to coast through it like Gracie did against Jourdain.

Best bet: Bryce Mitchell to win by decision (-200)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Nate Landwehr (-150) vs. Doo Ho Choi (+125)

This is the “Fight of the Night” in waiting …

Landwehr has become must-see-TV thanks to his comeback technical knockout win over Jammall Emmers last time out (see it here). Which was followed by an epic moment on the mic. One where he proclaimed, “beat my ass and see what happens.”

Landwehr is a treasure and he’s also pretty darn good. He was TKO’d by Herbert Burns in his debut (see it here) and that’s not great. But, since then, he’s beaten Darren Elkins (and siphoned off some of his vibe in the process) and beaten L’udovit Klein and David Onama. Klein and Onama have looked pretty slick lately. His win over Klein came via anaconda choke (see it here).

Choi, meanwhile, sparked Bill Algeo in July. He looked incredibly emotional after that win, his first win since he stopped Thiago Tavares in 2016. Since then, he dropped a decision to Cub Swanson and was stopped by Jeremy Stephens (see it here) and Charles Jourdain (see it here). That was followed by a draw with Kyle Nelson.

A rising “Nate The Train” versus a resurgent “Korean Super Boy” is so much fun on paper. I really hope it delivers on fight night. If it does, I think we’re looking at a finish. I like Landwehr’s chances of being the hammer and not the nail in this scenario (he lands close to two more significant strikes per minute than Choi). His takedowns might give Choi some trouble, too (Choi has just a 47 percent takedown defense).

The round total is set at 2.5. The over is +110 and the under is -140. I like the under, but wish the odds were better. Instead I’m going to go for the exact method of victory and hope we get fireworks … and that the fight ends with a bang.

Best bet: Exact Method of Victory – KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

UFC 310 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Anthony Smith (+270) vs. Dominick Reyes (-360)

Reyes is coming into UFC 310 just like Choi is: on the back of a feel good moment (after a long stretch of feel sad moments). Reyes’ moment was at UFC Louisville, taking out Dustin Jacoby with a first round technical knockout (see it here).

That win was his first since he smashed Chris Weidman in 2019 (see it here) to set up a title shot against Jon Jones. Reyes fought Jones to a close decision, with many fans and media members scoring the fight for Reyes. That would be Jones’ last fight as a Light Heavyweight (for now, maybe).

After that controversial loss (the first of his pro career) Reyes was finished by Jan Blachowicz (see it here), Jiri Prochazka (see it here) and Ryan Spann (see it here).

Smith, meanwhile, lost to Roman Dolidze in a glorified sparring match at UFC 303 in June. That came after his big upset over Vitor Petrino, who he beat by first round guillotine as a +400 underdog (see it here). Smith is 6-6 since his own loss to the aforementioned Jones (without controversy) back in 2019.

If Reyes hadn’t gone out and beaten Jacoby this would have been a very hard fight to pick. However, with Reyes perhaps shaking off the bad vibes with that win, I’m believing he can get by Smith (who looked pretty slow against Dolidze).

Surprisingly, Reyes is just one year younger than Smith. Stat-wise they are pretty similar, with the only glaring difference being takedown defense. Reyes’ takedown defense is a stellar 80 percent (though he’s not been threatened with many in his career). Smith’s is a more so-so 50 percent.

I think the odds are a little too far apart in this fight. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith’s veteran savvy snagged him a win. Though, I’m leaning toward Reyes taking a decision. The over has been set at 1.5 rounds (at -166), which seems ridiculous to me. That would be nice to put into some parlays.

Best bet: Fight to go the Distance – Yes (+175)

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Vicente Luque (+150) vs. Themba Gorimbo (-180)

Luque was supposed to fight Nick Diaz. Thankfully, that’s not happening (details here). Getting in a cage is the last thing Diaz needs right now.

Gorimbo, on the other hand, comes in off a comfortable win over Niko Price in October. That followed wins over Ramiz Brahimaj (who looked great a few weekends ago) and Pete Rodriguez.

Luque last fought in March, when he was finished by Joaquin Buckley (see it here). Prior to that, he defeated the swiftly-declining Rafael dos Anjos and lost to Geoff Neal via technical knockout (see it here). That brutal loss lead to a brain bleed, a type of injury that has killed many boxers and MMA fighters.

I’m not very comfortable with Luque still fighting after suffering such an injury. Sadly, he’s against a guy who strikes with lots of power and accuracy. Gorimbo’s accuracy on significant strikes is 61 percent and he lands 3.11 per minute. His volume isn’t that impressive (Luque lands 5.07); however, Gorimbo absorbs just 1.07 significant strikes per minute — one of the lowest numbers in the promotion. Luque, on the other hand, soaks up 5.21 significant strikes a minute — never a good sign when that number is higher than significant strikes landed.

Gorimbo has good wrestling as well. He lands 4.89 takedowns every 15 minutes and has a 65 percent accuracy.

For me, Gorimbo is one of the best favorites on the entire card. I’ll happily take him to beat the spread against Luque.

Best bet: Themba Gorimbo -3.5 (+135)

Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Aljamain Sterling (+215) vs. Movsar Evloev (-265)

I don’t think UFC wants to be in the Aljamain Sterling business much longer. The promotion has buried its former Bantamweight champion on the undercard. And it put him against Movsar Evloev, who is a terrible match-up for him.

Anyone, really.

Sterling’s UFC career has been a case-study in how, “the squeaky wheel gets the grease” does not apply to MMA.

Sterling is coming off a big win over Calvin Kattar. That was his Featherweight debut and it came on UFC 300’s “Prelims” undercard. Before that, he was KO’d by Sean O’Malley to lose his UFC Bantamweight title (see it here).

The O’Malley loss came soon after his win over Henry Cejudo (despite Sterling saying he wanted a break).

Evloev is undefeated and has quietly scored wins over some very good Featherweights, including Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes and Dan Ige. Like Sterling, Evloev is a decision-machine. So, I don’t expect UFC to show him much love even if he succeeds in taking some shine off Sterling on Saturday.

Sterling’s biggest weapon is his wrestling (and back takes). However, Evloev is a better wrestler. I’m pretty confident we’re going to see a wrestling meet here and Evloev is going to be the one on top for most the fight.

Best bet: Movsar Evloev to win by decision (-150)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Randy Brown (+185) vs. Bryan Battle (-225)

Battle battered Kevin Jousset in Paris a few weeks ago. And then ripped into the French fans. The fight — and the antics — acted as a bit of a coming out party for Battle, who is now 6-1 (1 NC) in UFC. His lone loss was a decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov in 2022. His wins have come pretty low down on cards and he’s yet to get a win over a recognizable name.

Brown is a decent step up in competition for Battle. He is riding a three-fight win streak with wins over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Muslim Salikhov (via KO — see it here).

I think this is a very close fight.

Both men are good strikers. Battle is the slightly better wrestler, though he doesn’t really try to assert himself in that area of the game. If he did try and take down Brown, he might find some success doing so. Dos Santos was able to take down Brown four times and rack up five minutes of control time in their fight. That wasn’t enough to out-weigh all the success Brown had on the feet, though.

If Battle can keep up with Brown in striking (which I think he can) and sprinkle in a takedown, I think he’s got a great chance of winning this.

Best bet: Bryan Battle moneyline (-225)

UFC 310 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Chris Weidman (-115) vs. Eryk Anders (-105)

Weidman won a very weird eyepoke-festooned fight with Bruno Silva last time out. That came after a decision loss to Brad Tavares in the fight that marked his return from a broken leg.

Anders, meanwhile, beat Jamie Pickett in March. That followed loss to Marc-Andre Barriault.

Weidman turned 40 years old in June. You have to be a pretty special fighter for me to pick you once you cross that line. However, Anders is no spring chicken himself — he turned 37 in May. Weidman, though, has considerably more fight years on him — thanks in part to some brutal losses along the way (like this one here to Gegard Mousasi).

In his prime, Weidman wouldn’t have had much trouble here, but I don’t think he has enough left in the tank to out-pace Anders.

Best bet: Eryk Anders moneyline (-105)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Cody Durden (+135) vs. Joshua Van (-160)

Durden is 1-1 this year. In July he was beating Bruno Silva before he ran chin first into an uppercut (see it here). In September, he defeated Matt Schnell, who came in heavy, with a ninja choke (see it here).

Van, meanwhile, is 2-1 in 2024. He was KO’d by Charles Johnson in July (see it here). But, that’s sandwiched by wins over Felipe Bunes and Edgar Chairez.

Both of these guys like to attack. And both do so with some reckless abandonment. I think this means there’s a good chance of someone getting slept here.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-125)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Michael Chiesa (-112) vs. Max Griffin (-108)

Chiesa took an easy win over the shell of Tony Ferguson in August (watch highlights). That was his first fight since being submitted by Kevin Holland in July 2023 (see it here). That fight came after a two-year layoff.

Griffin, meanwhile, got by Jeremiah Wells with a split decision in February. Prior to that, he lost a unanimous decision to Michael Morales.

Griffin is the favorite here, despite him just turning 39 and his UFC record being 8-8. Chiesa opened with plus odds, but that has come down a lot.

Chiesa is 36 and, if it hadn’t been for injuries, his ceiling in the sport would have eclipsed Griffin’s, by far. I think his jiu-jitsu will give Griffin him some problems and he’ll notch a win before perhaps going back to the analyst’s desk for good.

Best bet: Chiesa moneyline (-112)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Chase Hooper (-1100) vs. Clay Guida (+700)

Hooper is the biggest favorite on the card (by a long way). He looked sensational against Viacheslav Borshchev in his last fight, combining much improved striking with his always-good grappling for a d’arce choke win (see it here).

Guida heads to UFC 310 with an 18-18 record in UFC. If he loses on Saturday, he will have the most losses in UFC history (he’s currently tied with Jeremy Stephens and Andrei Arlovski).

He’s lost his last two fights. And it’s because his age has started to out-pace his fighting style. He doesn’t have enough left in the gas tank to terrorize opponents with constant pressure.

I think Hooper will take him down and give him that record breaking loss, probably by submission (Eleven of Guida’s 24 pro losses are by submission).

There’s only the moneyline and round total (1.5) available on this match-up.

Best bet: Chase Hooper moneyline (-1100)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-550) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+410)

Nzechukwu walked through Chris Barnett in his Heavyweight debut at UFC 308 in October. Part of that may be because Barnett injured himself during his warm-up. Even so, Nzechukwu looked very sharp and pacey and like he could do some damage in this division.

Brzeski, meanwhile, has looked awful in UFC, going 1-4. He was finished by Mick Parkin in round one back in July (see it here).

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+120)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 310 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for those folks who want to put a little on something that might come with a big return.

3-pick parlay: Alexander Volkov, Themba Gorimbo, Michael Chiesa (+1130)

Volkov is the biggest risk in this parlay. Gorimbo should have an easy time with Luque. And the public are betting hard on Chiesa right now. Gane is a really tough opponent, but Volkov has shown some great late career improvement and his win over Pavlovich is a good blueprint to follow against Gane.

Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi – Fight to End in Last 10 seconds of any round (+4000)

I just feel like these two have some good fight chemistry and we could see a wild brawl here. I think both these guys are the kind to bite down on the mouth piece and go for broke in the closing seconds. If that happens here, someone might end up going to sleep just before the bell.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura – Point to be Deducted – YES (+2000)

Back at it again! Asakura isn’t used to the cage and he’s coming from a promotion where you can punt a prone fighter’s head into the front row. He might grab the fence or land a silly knee. Those offenses would deserve a point deduction. Will we have a ref brave enough to do it, though?

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 310 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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