UFC 311 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, January 18, 2025. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 6 PM ET.
The main event will see lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev defend his title for the fourth time since capturing it at the expense of Charles Oliveira over two years ago. To continue his reign, the Dagestani is tasked with spoiling the ambitions of a familiar foe in Arman Tsarukyan.
Co-headlining will be another champ in Merab Dvalishvili, who will look to maintain his status as bantamweight kingpin by blemishing the currently perfect record of Umar Nurmagomedov.
Elsewhere on the card, former light heavyweight titleholders Ji?í Procházka and Jamahal Hill collide, perennial lightweight contender Beneil Dariush meets Renato Moicano, and the always entertaining Kevin Holland battles Reinier de Ridder.
UFC 311: MMA News Staff Predictions
Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 311 event, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Pranav Pandey, and Aakrit Sharma have provided their picks for the five matchups set for the main card.
A leaderboard will track the team’s scores throughout the year following the opening PPV of 2025 in Los Angeles.
And with that, it’s time for their predictions for UFC 311.
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Thomas Albano: This one’s the fight that gives me the most trouble. I love the accomplishments Reinier de Ridder had while dominating the ONE Championship scene. But he had some struggles against Gerald Meerschaert, and he’s probably going to struggle against Kevin Holland too.
Holland himself isn’t in the best of all momentum places, with losses in five of his last eight fights, but what he does bring is some power that can certainly rock “The Dutch Knight.” De Ridder’s grappling abilities and his grit may very well get him a late victory, like what happened in his UFC debut. But if he doesn’t show strides in this outing, win or lose, that doesn’t smell good for his UFC tenure if he gets placed up against tougher competition. (Prediction: Reinier de Ridder)
Ryan Jarrell: De Ridder flashed moments of extreme talent in his UFC debut, but I think it’s safe to say his performance wasn’t what his team wanted or expected. He better bring his best against Holland because the American has pop on the feet and a very dangerous ground game. This is a very close fight to pick, but if you are forcing me to lean one way, give me the guy who has 23 UFC fights on his résumé. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Pranav Pandey: This matchup leaves me scratching my head, and I’m unsure of exactly what to make of it. RDR has a submission game that’s as smooth as it is dangerous. But don’t sleep on his striking either; the man’s well-rounded skill set is what has made him a two-division champion in ONE Championship. With only two losses on his record, both at the hands of Anatoly Malykhin, it’s clear that de Ridder is a tough riddle to solve.
“Trailblazer”, however, enters with his own set of advantages. While “The Dutch Knight” made quick work of Meerschaert in his UFC debut, it’s worth noting that he was getting clipped early in that fight. This is where I think Holland’s high-paced, dynamic striking could create some serious problems for de Ridder, especially if he can force the pace early. While it’s true Holland has experienced a few setbacks in recent bouts, I still think his striking style could catch the Dutchman off guard.
That said, I’m torn on this one. De Ridder has the tools to neutralize Holland’s striking and dictate the fight, but I’m leaning toward Holland here. He’s the more unpredictable of the two, and that could be the key to pulling off a win. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Aakrit Sharma: I just can’t bet against Holland. Even though he’s 5-5 in his last 10 fights, “Trailblazer” has the tools to knock out or submit some of the best fighters in the world on a good day. De Ridder’s run in ONE Championship was impressive, but the competition he’s faced so far cannot be compared to the UFC middleweight division. Submitting Meerschaert was a good start, but Holland should be a tougher opponent because of his toughness and creative arsenal.
At middleweight, “Trailblazer”, who’s also just 32, boasts more power and has a higher chance to survive the striking exchanges because the opponents are slower than welterweights. De Ridder’s path to victory is his submission and grappling game, but Holland has been to the ground with the likes of Michael Chiesa, Derek Brunson, and Khamzat Chimaev, so he definitely won’t be overwhelmed. As bad and risky this could be for my prediction record, I once again pick Holland to get a finish. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Consensus: 3-1 Kevin Holland
Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Thomas Albano: Entering 2023 off a win over Mateusz Gamrot, Beneil Dariush appeared to be on the doorstep of challenging for the UFC lightweight championship. But that year ended up being arguably Dariush’s worst. While getting finished by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan is nothing to sneeze at, he didn’t look the greatest in either fight. And while he’s faced top-level competition, that could smell trouble when taking on a rising name like Renato “Money” Moicano.
Despite being sidelined for a while through injury, Moicano’s name has continued to rise since his famous money post-fight promo. The pair of fights he had last year against Jalin Turner and Benoît Saint Denis brought me some trepidation on how he’d be able to come out of both of those fights with his hand raised. Not only did he win both of those fights, but he also got finishes in both.
Moicano is continuing to evolve, and if Dariush is not careful and can’t use his jiu-jitsu experience to dictate this fight, it’s going to be a painful defeat. (Prediction: Renato Moicano)
Ryan Jarrell: Moicano continues to impress me more and more each time he enters the UFC octagon. Dariush is a worthy adversary, but after seeing what the Brazilian did to Saint Denis, it’s going to be very difficult to pick against him unless he’s fighting someone closer to the top of the division. Dariush is a crafty veteran, so it may take a couple of rounds for Moicano to figure him out. But he will find a way to win this fight, whether it’s a finish or goes to the judges. (Prediction: Renato Moicano)
Pranav Pandey: Dariush vs. Moicano could be an all-out brawl, with the makings of a true dogfight. Dariush was on a tear before his recent setbacks, having delivered back-to-back standout performances against some of the most formidable contenders in the lightweight division. He’s demonstrated remarkable resilience and toughness in high-pressure situations. However, my concern for him lies in the aftermath of consecutive knockout defeats, compounded by an extended hiatus of over a year. Has this time away slowed him down, or has he used it to evolve and refine his skills? Only time will tell.
On the other hand, we have “Money” Moicano, who made a statement in his last outing against Saint Denis, showing that he’s a force to be reckoned with, capable of landing serious damage. But let’s not forget that Moicano’s black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu is just as dangerous as his striking power, as he’s made a habit of submitting opponents who dare engage him on the ground. His consistent activity inside the cage should give him an edge over Dariush, who may look to take the fight into deeper waters. Ultimately, I think Moicano’s pace and versatility will grind Dariush down. (Prediction: Renato Moicano)
Aakrit Sharma: Dariush going on an eight-fight win streak and defeating Tony Ferguson and Mateusz Gamrot
left him as easily one of the best lightweights in the world. However, now he’s 35 and coming off two consecutive first-round KO losses, and I believe that his best days are behind him. The defeats to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan obviously aren’t a bad look on anyone’s record, and I still believe Dariush possesses the raw skills and IQ to beat Moicano. He simply doesn’t seem like an athlete who can withstand the natural decline that comes with age.
Moicano, also 35, has generated a ton of momentum and fans by looking great in all his last four victories. Although his striking still needs improvement, he’s showcased solid grappling, resilience, and pace against a variety of highly skilled lightweights. I wasn’t sold on his latest run until he outclassed Saint Denis. So, I pick Moicano to win this fight, hoping he then finally gets a big name like Paddy Pimblett. (Prediction: Renato Moicano)
Consensus: 4-0 Renato Moicano
Light Heavyweight: Ji?í Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
Thomas Albano: If you want variety in your MMA card, look no further than UFC 311. While the title fights are filled with grappling specialists, this fight presents a battle of former UFC light heavyweight champions (neither of whom lost their title in the cage, but both of whom have come up short against Alex Pereira) who could turn the other’s lights off at any second. That said, I feel much safer picking Ji?í Procházka to do that in this one.
This isn’t to knock Hill’s rise from Dana White’s Contender Series to the UFC, but when you look at the names Procházka has faced since entering the UFC in mid-2020, and the performances and hype surrounding his fights since then, I find myself questioning how Hill is going to be able to get that damaging, finishing blow on “BJP.” The Czech star is the pure definition of a warrior in our modern MMA world, and I can see him continuing to come forward, despite Hill’s best efforts, until he gets another highlight finish. (Prediction: Ji?í Procházka)
Ryan Jarrell: This is such an interesting fight and an important one for both men. There has to be a nasty taste in both of their mouths from what Pereira did to each of them in their last fights. I think this comes down to which guy is in the better head space, and based on what we’ve seen from Hill at the UFC Performance Institute, I believe that man is Procházka right now. This will be a competitive fight and both men will have their moments. But I believe the Czech star will have the more meaningful moments and will catch “Sweet Dreams” at some point with a shot he won’t recover from. (Prediction: Ji?í Procházka)
Pranav Pandey: Procházka vs. Hill has all the ingredients for a no-holds-barred showdown, and I can’t help but anticipate a wild ride. Both former champions have built reputations for their fearless, all-out fighting styles, often throwing caution to the wind in pursuit of a finish. While it’s easy to joke about the reckless nature of their approach, the reality is this clash promises to be an electrifying showdown that fans won’t want to miss.
“Sweet Dreams” possesses remarkable knockout power, which perfectly complements his solid striking arsenal. However, from what I’ve observed, his striking can occasionally look a bit awkward, especially when it comes to his footwork. There’s also the lingering question about his takedown defense, as it haven’t been truly tested at the highest level just yet. On the flip side, we have the enigmatic Procházka, whose striking style can often seem like organized chaos — unorthodox and unpredictable, but undeniably effective. His wild technique has proven to be a nightmare for opponents, and he’s no slouch when it comes to submissions either.
If “Denisa” can maintain distance and avoid the brute force of Hill’s strikes, I believe the Czech star will find himself in a position to dictate the pace and possibly even dominate this matchup. (Prediction: Ji?í Procházka)
Aakrit Sharma: UFC 311 is full of evenly matched fights and this is one of them. While Procházka only has two losses (both to Pereira) in the last 10 years and looked great in his last outing, Hill is coming off a self-proclaimed controversial loss to “Poatan.” Both Procházka and Hill are crafty strikers and it would be surprising if either goes into the fight with a grappling-heavy gameplan. Hill, I think, is the more conventional striker, while his Czech opponent just walks into chaos and hopes to land the finishing strike first.
I wanted to give Procházka an edge because of his experience, but to be fair, he hardly makes use of it and ends up brawling after a point like Michael Chandler. This should work to Hill’s advantage as I consider him to be a smarter fighter between the two. It’s hard to bet against someone as likable and dynamic as Procházka, but I believe “Sweet Dreams” is severely underrated and the loss to Pereira has motivated him to gain the respect of the community back. If he lands constantly and shows the great chin he’s usually had, this should be a tough but very feasible win for him at UFC 311. (Prediction: Jamahal Hill)
Consensus: 3-1 Ji?í Procházka
UFC Bantamweight Title: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Thomas Albano: “The Machine” is such a perfect nickname for Merab Dvalishvili. After losing his first two UFC fights, he has since shown just how dominant of a takedown artist and wrestler he can be. He has made fights which looked even and interesting on paper not even close. Just look at the way he handled Sean O’Malley in his last fight to win the bantamweight championship. The Georgian has been an excellent source of talent and entertainment at 135 pounds…but so too has his challenger at UFC 311 – Umar Nurmagomedov.
Since joining the UFC in 2021, Nurmagomedov – cousin to Khabib and older brother of Usman – has enjoyed a fairly quick rise toward the top of the bantamweight rankings. Something the combat sambo specialist and champion possesses is striking that is continuing to develop well with every appearance he makes in the Octagon. The way he performed against Cory Sandhagen was a masterclass. While Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov can certainly hang with each other, this feels like a fun fight to go along for a potential “and new” ride. (Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov)
Ryan Jarrell: I am a big fan of Dvalishvili’s fighting style and how he constantly moves forward when inside the Octagon. Having said that, he may need to change things up a bit in the fight from a stylistic standpoint. Nurmagomedov is undefeated for a reason, and his wrestling and grappling is extremely elite. The Georgian clearly has the better overall résumé and has shared the cage with the more dangerous fighters, so I don’t expect him to be overwhelmed or outclassed. But when you have an undefeated guy with the last name Nurmagomedov, the smart thing is to predict he stays undefeated. (Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov)
Pranav Pandey: I think this bout seems to be another captivating tactical battle on the UFC 311 card, with both fighters bringing their own brand of grappling artistry to the Octagon. it’s easy to see why many might favor the undefeated Dagestani, as he seemingly possesses all the tools required to stifle Dvalishvili’s relentless takedown game. Nurmagomedov’s grappling prowess is renowned, but it’s his striking that has truly set him apart at bantamweight — many believe he’s evolved into a well-rounded threat who can dictate the pace with his superior striking, all while maintaining a solid grappling foundation to neutralize the champ’s onslaught.
Still, I can’t help but feel that there’s a certain underestimation of “The Machine” at play here, both from fans and oddsmakers. The nickname speaks for itself — Dvalishvili is an unstoppable force, a man whose work ethic and unyielding style have broken many before him. In my opinion, there’s nothing that Nurmagomedov brings to the table that Dvalishvili hasn’t already encountered and overcome. Just look at how the Georgian bulldozed through opponents on his path to the title. It’s clear that while “The Young Eagle” may show plenty of promise, it won’t be enough to dethrone “The Machine” in this clash. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)
Aakrit Sharma: It has been a trend to only appreciate fast-paced MMA when strikers like Dustin Poirier, Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler and Edson Barboza showcase it. It’s great that someone like Dvalishvili, who can somehow wrestle for five rounds straight, has finally gained the recognition of fans worldwide. I believe Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, and Henry Cejudo might have been superior to “The Machine” in terms of pure skill. However, the UFC bantamweight champion seems exceptionally
powerful for the division, and his ability to never back down in a fight and maintain the same energy throughout the five rounds has helped him develop an invincible aura lately.
Nurmagomedov, like the champ’s past opponents, is undeniably skilled, but he doesn’t always go for the kill and boasts a lower finish rate than Makhachev, Usman Nurmagomedov, and Khabib Nurmagomedov. With such a style, I see him winning a round
or two in the beginning but losing momentum as the fight goes into the championship rounds. Dvalishvili, on the other hand, will likely struggle to dominate Nurmagomedov entirely because the undefeated prospect will be able to get up and land punches as well as kicks. Having said that, the Georgian fighter’s cardio and chin should again carry him to victory.
He’s beat the best strikers and wrestlers out there, so Nurmagomedov would really have to bring something never seen before to surprise the champion. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)
Consensus: 2-2
UFC Lightweight Title: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2
Thomas Albano: The first time that these two faced off, it was a grappler’s paradise. They put on a display that showcased the true beauty of this side of MMA, and the two got a well-deserved Fight of the Night honor. Since then, Arman Tsarukyan has continued to improve his game in all manners of competition. There’s just one problem – Islam Makhachev has continued to improve his game, too, so much so that he is now the world champion and has racked off several excellent displays against ever-evolving, tough competition consistently over the last few years.
Tsarukyan will still most likely try to be on the front foot and bring the pressure early on in this contest. But the more this bout goes on, the more it’s going to be in Makhachev’s favor, showing why he is the top dog in the UFC at 155 pounds. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Ryan Jarrell: This highly anticipated rematch goes all the way back to 2019 when Makachev beat Tsarukyan via unanimous decision in a three-round bout. Obviously, both men have improved dramatically since their first fight. With how action-packed I expect this fight to be, I’m intrigued to see who has the better gas tank if we hit championship rounds. The challenger is absolutely ripped heading into this fight, and definitely is a live dog. Tsarukyan has all the tools to be a champion, but can he actually beat Makhachev? I won’t believe until I see it, so give me the champion to retain his title and move up to 170 pounds to try and collect a second belt. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Pranav Pandey: The rematch has all the makings of one of the most riveting and fiercely competitive showdowns the UFC has witnessed in recent years. It feels like a truly exceptional clash, where both fighters exhibit an uncanny parity across nearly every dimension of the game. Whether it’s striking, grappling, or wrestling, Makhachev and Tsarukyan operate nearly on the same elite wavelength. Makhachev has emerged as a relentless force in the lightweight division since his close friend and mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, bid farewell to the UFC. The reigning champion has systematically dismantled every challenger with dominant, one-sided performances.
While his matchups with Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier pushed him in unique ways, it was his first encounter with Tsarukyan that, in my opinion, presented the most formidable grappling challenge of his career — a challenge the Dagestani ultimately overcame. If you believe that Makhachev can still overpower “Ahalkalakets” as he did before, you’re in for a surprise. Tsarukyan has made significant strides in his game since their initial meeting, proving he is more than capable of matching Makhachev’s prowess. In my opinion, this showdown will go down as a blend of high-level grappling exchanges and fiery stand-up action.
This is the kind of fight where logic leans toward Makhachev, but there’s an undeniable allure in rooting for Tsarukyan. However, when it comes to making a choice, I’d side with Makhachev. I think he holds an edge in experience, skill, and even grit, which makes him the likely victor. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Aakrit Sharma: Tsarukyan could easily be a top five pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC right now. However, I
can’t imagine anyone dethroning Makhachev from top spot anytime soon. I agree with the sentiment that Tsarukyan’s grappling and wrestling prowess can trouble the champ more than anyone in the lightweight division, and he has also significantly
improved his cardio and athleticism since the first fight. On the other end, though, Makhachev has evolved into one of the best strikers in the lightweight division, which surprisingly should be his path to victory this time around.
MMA math doesn’t work but comparing Tsarukyan’s and Makhachev’s performances against Oliveira seems fair due to the styles of these matchups. If the fight goes to the ground and Tsarukyan gets into troublesome positions like he did against the Brazilian, Makhachev won’t give him the room to slip out of his shorts and escape. Tsarukyan has displayed knockout potential, too, but having seen the champ comfortably trade in the pocket with Poirier in his last defense, it seems unlikely that the Armenian would be an equal, if not a bigger threat.
This definitely has Fight of the Night written all over it, and as talented and gifted as “Ahalkalakets” is, Makhachev looks like he’s leagues above the rest for now. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Consensus: 4-0 Islam Makhachev
That’ll do it for our UFC 311 staff picks! What do you think? Do your predictions look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full UFC 311 card below.
Main Card:
- Lightweight Championship: Islam Makhachev (C) vs. Arman Tsarukyan
- Bantamweight Championship: Merab Dvalishvili (C) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
- Light Heavyweight: Ji?í Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
- Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
- Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Preliminary Card:
- Bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
- Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
- Light Heavyweight: Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana
- Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
Early Preliminary Card:
- Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
- Women’s Bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez
- Bantamweight: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafarov
- Bantamweight: Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj
- Flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com for all the results, highlights, and updates on UFC 311!