Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Denver mixed martial arts (MMA) event, set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., July 13, 2024) on ESPN and ESPN+ from inside Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. UFC Denver features a 125-pound main event between former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and No. 6-ranked flyweight contender Tracy Cortez, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.
Cortez is a late replacement for the ailing Maycee Barber.
Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which include the 170-pound scrap between welterweight veterans Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Denver main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Namajunas vs. Cortez” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For UFC Denver live results and play-by-play click here.
125 lbs.: Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
“Thug” Rose Namajunas
Record: 12-6 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -220
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’5“ | Reach: 65” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.69 | Striking accuracy: 41%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.51 | Striking Defense: 63%
Takedown Average: 1.38 (47% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 59%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Amanda Ribas
Tracy Cortez
Record: 11-1 | Age: 30 | Betting line: +180
Wins: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’5“ | Reach: 65” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.11 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.79 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 2.33 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Rose Namajunas walked away from the strawweight division after a disappointing decision loss to former 115-pound champion Carla Esparza, which is right up there with Francis Ngannou vs. Derrick Lewis as one of the worst fights of the last five years. At the time of her departure, “Thug” was ranked No. 1 in the division and not long removed from consecutive victories over Weili Zhang, making her decision to head north a rather peculiar one.
Critics accused her of sabotaging her career and things did not get off to the best start, thanks to a decision loss to Manon Fiorot at UFC Paris, but the former “Ultimate Fighter” finalist was able to bounce back with a victory over Amanda Ribas at UFC Vegas 89 back in March. If there’s a complaint to be lodged, it’s that Namajunas has just one finish over the last six-and-a-half years and often looks somewhat listless inside the cage.
I expected Maycee Barber to bring the dog out of Namajunas and losing “The Future” was a tough pill to swallow, which is no disrespect to new opponent Tracy Cortez, I just liked the Barber matchup a little better and thought it carried more weight in terms of the 125-pound title picture.
“I have no idea (if we’ll ever fight),” Namajunas told MMA Junkie Radio. “As soon as she pulled out of the fight it was like, ‘Alright, I guess I’ve got to stop thinking about her.’ I don’t know. If it does, it does. If it doesn’t, I don’t really care. It’s not night and day. Basically my approach is the same as far as what I’m going to do. There was a slight adjustment period and a psychological switch.”
Tracy Cortez has quietly put together six straight victories inside the Octagon, which includes her winning performance against Mariya Agapova on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2019. I think fans were too distracted by her relationship with UFC featherweight contender Brian Ortega to notice, which has long since soured, as well as her medical drama that brought an end to her UFC Orlando fight against Amanda Ribas back in late 2022. Cortez returned for Noche UFC the following fall and scored a decision win over fellow “Contender Series” standout Jasmine Jasudavicius — a fight that had the betting lines about even.
Against Namajunas, Cortez will be a slight underdog.
“I want to say I’m a true 125er,” Cortez told MMA Junkie. “Sh*t, I could even fight at 135 but I’m a real flyweight and I don’t think she’s yet to face someone like myself, and vice versa. I’ve never faced a former world champion, so it’s putting both of us in a good test. I really want to fight for the belt. I know there’s a lot of people ahead of me still. I know winning this fight, where it could move me to. And the performance I put on Saturday, I know everything that comes with it.”
“If I get the opportunity and they grant me the opportunity to fight at the Sphere, I think it would be incredible history,” Cortez continued. “Two Mexican women on Mexican Independence Day fighting on the biggest sport event ever. I think that would just be incredible. That’s something I never imagined and I feel like it’s just [within] arm’s length. That is what I’m striving for, but at the end of the day, long-term goal, I am fighting for the belt.”
I’m still not sold on Namajunas at flyweight and if we’re being honest, beating Ribas — who is 4-4 across her last eight fights — is not that impressive, especially when you consider what “Thug” was able to do against the best in the world at strawweight. At the same time, it’s hard for me to pick against a fighter with her championship experience. Namajunas has fought some real killers in her career, like the aforementioned Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, just to name a few. In addition, Cortez is taking a five-round fight — at altitude — on short notice. Unless Namajunas has another short circuit and decides to play Red Light, Green Light inside the cage, I expect her to win all five rounds — and she may even get the finish late in the fight, depending on how badly the altitude affects Cortez.
Prediction: Namajunas def. Cortez by decision
170 lbs.: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Santiago “Argentine Dagger” Ponzinibbio
Record: 29-7 | Age: 37 | Betting line: -205
Wins: 16 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.90 | Striking accuracy: 41%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.67 | Striking Defense: 61%
Takedown Average: 0.48 (30% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 60%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout loss to Kevin Holland
Muslim “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov
Record: 19-5 | Age: 40 | Betting line: +170
Wins: 13 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.36 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.94 | Striking Defense: 62%
Takedown Average: 1.27 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 73%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout loss to Randy Brown
There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Santiago Ponzinibbio was consistently ranked in the Top 10 of the crowded welterweight division. By the time late 2018 rolled around, the “Argentine Dagger” had racked up seven straight wins, punctuated by a knockout finish over the typically-durable Neil Magny. It seemed like a matter of when — not if — Ponzinibbio was contending for the 170-pound title.
Then it all fell apart.
In the aftermath of his finish over “The Haitian Sensation,” Ponzinibbio dropped four of his next six, getting knocked out twice in the process and falling out of the official welterweight rankings (see them here). Part of that downward spiral included a series of medical setbacks, starting with an operation on his hand, continuing with coronavirus, and finishing with a bacterial infection that led to emergency surgery and a rather lengthy hospital stay.
It’s also fair to say the division got stronger.
“I feel great, and I have the abilities to beat the best in the division,” Ponzinibbio told MMA Junkie. “If I get in there, and I’m able to perform well without any health issues or problems like some of my previous fights, because due to different reasons I wasn’t able to perform at my best technically. I’ve won some recent fights with my heart but not with my technique. I think during this time off I was able to address a few issues, and I think people will see a new version of Santiago Ponzinibbio where I’ll perform 100 percent and show I’m capable of competing at a high level. So to tell you the truth, retirement is not something that crosses my mind.”
“I’m here for a while longer. Retirement is not something that crosses my mind.” Ponzinibbio continued. “What does cross my mind is winning in spectacular fashion in this co-main event bout and making a quick return, so I can keep climbing up the division. I know if I’m able to perform 100 percent, I can beat anyone at 170 pounds. I don’t say this to be arrogant. I just have confidence in my work and what I see in the gym every day. I’m happy and confident with this opportunity, and I’m in a good moment.”
Muslim Salikhov was an absolute terror on the international circuit, putting together an impressive 13-1 record with 10 knockouts and two submissions. The promotion finally took notice in late 2017 and signed the “King of Kung Fu” for a debut fight against Alex Garcia … which he lost by submission midway through the second round. Probably not the start Salikhov had in mind after pining for a spot on the UFC roster.
Undaunted, Salikhov roared back to win his next five fights, securing a spot in the Top 15 of the official 170-pound rankings. Once again, an untimely loss — this time to Jingliang Li — would spoil his success and leave him in welterweight no man’s land. Salikhov followed up his loss to “The Leech” by dropping two of his next three and at 40 years old, it’s hard to feel optimistic about what the “King of Kung Fu” has to offer in 2024 and beyond.
We’ll find out for certain in tomorrow night’s banger.
Ponzinibbio has been with UFC for more than a decade and I think it’s fair to assume we’ve already seen the sharpest version of the “Argentine Dagger.” The question we need to answer, at least for the purpose of this column, is whether or not his decline compares to (or exceeds) that of Salikhov’s, since both combatants are coming off brutal knockout losses. For my money, this bout all depends on how well (and how often) Salikhov uses his wrestling to frustrate Ponzinibbio, who tends to abandon his gameplan and spend the second half of his fights winging wild punches in search of the knockout. I don’t think he gets it, allowing the “King of Kung Fu” to scrape by with a close decision win.
Prediction: Salikhov def. Ponzinibbio by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Denver main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Denver fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN/ESPN+ main card start time at 10 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Denver news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized “Namajunas vs. Cortez” fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ line up click here.