Roy Nelson vs Stefan Struve
Odds: (-325 Nelson / +225 Struve ) at Sportsbook.com
In the co-main event, recent Ultimate Fighter winner Roy “Big Country” Nelson will look for his first win since earning the contract against well-rounded Dutchman Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Nelson defied a lot of critics, breezing through his competition on The Ultimate Fighter, but Struve is a threat both standing and on the ground, so this should be a great fight.
Struve, who comes by his “Skyscraper” nickname honestly, is very tall and has very long limbs which he uses to great advantage, both with his striking and his highly effective submission game. His striking is not overly powerful, but he uses his reach very well to soften up opponents. His best work is clearly done on the ground, where he can submit guys in a variety of ways from pretty much any position. The biggest hole in his game is, by far, his wrestling. His offensive wrestling is awkward and ineffective and his takedown defense is reminiscent of a man on iceskates. That could be a problem against Nelson, who is very large and has good wrestling and a brutal top game.
Nelson, who comes by his “Big Country” moniker just as honestly as Struve came by his, does not fit the traditional mold of a top-level athlete. A decidedly rotund fellow, Nelson looks more like a bouncer at a biker bar than a serious athlete, but his appearance is extremely decieving. For a man his size, Nelson moves extremely well and fast, and he has turned his bulk into an advantage, using it to smother guys and shut them down from side control and the crucifix. In addition to his solid wrestling and top game, Nelson is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and an accomplished striker as well, with a lot of power in his right hand and an iron chin to boot.
This fight is going to come down to Struve’s takedown defense, which means that Nelson is going to win. On the feet, Struve has a big reach advantage, but Nelson has a big power advantage. Both men are very capable on the ground, and while Struve is probably better at submitting opponents, Nelson’s top control is smothering and he is very good at using his weight to pin guys down and unloading highly damaging short punches and elbows. There is no way that Struve is going to prevent Nelson from taking him down at will, and despite his great submissions he won’t last long underneath Nelson, especially if “Big Country” can bull his way past the guard. Expect another trademark Roy Nelson t/ko from side mount or the crucifix as Struve is unable to defend himself against Nelson’s positional dominance.
Prediction: Roy “Big Country” Nelson via crucifix pounding (T/KO) in the second round.
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