The UFC holds its second Fight Pass show in as many weeks, this time returning to the land of the rising sun. The main event is headlined by a pair of heavy-hitting heavyweights, one of whom made his name in Japan more than a decade ago. The card also features a host of Japanese talent, from rising prospects to aging veterans.
Will Roy Nelson be able to build off of the Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira win and move closer to a title shot or is Mark Hunt ready to get back into the win column?
What: UFC Fight Night 52 (UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Nelson)
Where: Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
When: Saturday, the six-fight Fight Pass preliminary card starts at 12:30 a.m. ET and the six-fight Fight Pass main card begins at 3 a.m.
This is one of those bouts where trying to over complicate things gets you nowhere. I wouldn’t say this is down to a coin flip, but I hesitate to be overly predictive about what either guy will or won’t do. That is, of course, except for spending quite a bit of energy throwing heavy punches. For me, they’re roughly equivalent fighters at this stage in their careers, except Nelson has shown a bit more sturdiness in his ability to absorb damage. Does that hold up in this contest? We will find out, but that’s really the only key differentiator I can pinpoint ahead of time that gives either hard striking heavyweight a clear advantage.
Pick: Nelson
Simply stated, the American is more well rounded and, therefore, should win the bout. He’s shown in his development the ability to manage distance as much with his feet as his jab, stay away from overly aggressive opponents, time his offense nicely and mix up his attacks as needed. Gomi, by contrast, has had fun bouts, but his game has regressed to a few options, albeit still with potency. Even so, Jury has the skills to win this with what should be relative ease.
Pick: Jury
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Amir Sadollah
It’s hard to know where either fighter is at this point in their careers. Akiyama was suffering through a terrible career skid prior to his layoff while Sadollah, up and down in his career, has also dealt with injuries. Either way, we don’t have enough information to make a reliable, evidence-based pick. Going off of what we know, I like Akiyama’s boxing over Sadollah’s, although the American’s clinch might be better. Akiyama is certainly better on the ground, but he’s also long in the tooth at this point, too. This is a tough one, but I’ll side with Akiyama for competition experience, better athleticism, superior grappling and hometown advantage. That’s not the best criteria we have, but it’s what we have.
Pick: Akiyama
Miesha Tate vs. Rin Nakai
There’s a lot of hype behind Nakai, but I’m not buying it. I don’t know if she’ll make it look easy (although I wouldn’t doubt it either), but unless Tate makes poor tactical and strategic decisions ahead of time, this is her’s to lose. She should be able to immediately close the distance, secure a takedown and go to work from there, mixing up strikes and passes to put Nakai in trouble. That should happen early and often.
Pick: Tate
Kiichi Kunimoto vs. Richard Walsh
I candidly never expected Kunimoto to get past Sarafian, but he proved me wrong, and rather splendidly so. I’m still hesitant to praise much of his game beyond the realm of the guard or back takes, but it does seem that at least on that level he’s a formidable challenge for fighters on the UFC bubble. Unfortunately for Walsh, that’s precisely where he resides.
Pick: Kunimoto
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Jon Delos Reyes
Horiguchi is arguably the best prospect out of Japan right now, irrespective of weight class. He’s a little reckless with his striking at times, electing to plant his feet for maximum punching effect against wounded if still dangerous opposition. But he’s also hugely talented, too, in many portions of the game. Delos Reyes has had trouble with attacking grapplers, which is something Horiguchi can play (to an extent) if he so chooses. I expect him to do so here after an early feeling out period.
Pick: Horiguchi
From the preliminary card:
Alex Caceres def. Masanori Kanehara
Katsunori Kikuno def. Sam Sicilia
Hyun Gyu Lim def. Takenori Sato
Michinori Tanaka def. Kyung Ho Kang
Kazuki Takudome def. Johnny Case
Maximo Blanco def. Daniel Hooker