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Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Norfolk fight card in Virginia.
The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event in Norfolk, Virginia. We are fairly split on the main event between Joseph Benavidez and Deiveson Figueiredo, which is now only a flyweight title fight for Benavidez on the basis of having actually made the flyweight limit. As for the co-main, everyone is backing Felicia Spencer over Zarah Fairn in what might be a women’s featherweight title eliminator.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons.
Note 2: We are looking at a new predictions format, and that means only having descriptions on our picks for the top 2-5 fights on smaller UFC events such as this one. No worries though, as we’ve embedded both MMA Vivisections for you to listen to if you want in-depth breakdowns.
Joseph Benavidez vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Mookie Alexander: This is a great fight, Deiveson’s weight failures aside. The Jussier Formiga fight is the biggest pause against picking Figueiredo, because he was able to stifle his offense and take him down multiple times. Benavidez is not as great a wrestler as he used to be, but that may still be enough to guide him to victory. He still has significant pop in his punches and a speed advantage. With that said, Figueiredo is a crafty scrambler and he has vicious power for someone his size. There are paths to victory for either man, but while I’m sentimentally rooting for Benavidez, I see the Brazilian’s athleticism and whirlwind of offense being too much for Joe B to handle. Deiveson Figueiredo by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Sadness Hedge, Sadness Hedge, it is time for a Sadness Hedge. Deiveson Figueiredo by TKO round 1.
Zane Simon: Absolutely won’t be shocked if Figueiredo gets the first round KO. His counters are violent, and Benavidez always eats a shot while coming forward with combos. But, Figueiredo’s defense breaks down pretty fast on the back foot. And Joe-B’s defense seems to have improved when he’s the one circling away these days. He’s also perhaps the best wrestler and scrambler Figueiredo’s had to face, something that gave him fits against Jussier Formiga and Jarred Brooks. If Figueiredo can’t hold Joe-B down, he’ll have to rely on KOing him, because I don’t think he’ll out-work him over 5 rounds. Joseph Benavidez by decision.
Staff picking Benavidez: Ed, Dayne, Shak, Zane
Staff picking Figueiredo: Phil, Mookie, Stephie
Felicia Spencer vs. Zarah Fairn
Mookie Alexander: This might be one of the weirdest UFC co-main events ever intentionally put together. What are the stakes here? The right to lose badly to Amanda Nunes? Spencer is also miles better than Fairn so in turn this is also wholly uncompetitive. Felicia Spencer by submission, round 1.
Zane Simon: Fairn charges forward into the clinch, Spencer charges forward into the clinch. Spencer is a powerful grappler with good scrambling and decent wrestling. Fairn… isn’t. Felicia Spencer via submission, round 1.
Staff picking Spencer: Ed, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Shak, Zane
Staff picking Fairn:
Ion Cutelaba vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Mookie Alexander: Ahhh my favorite Moldovan Hulk. This is an actual good fight! Ankalaev’s only loss is a freak hail mary finish by Paul Craig, who seems to be good at that particular thing. He can strike, he can smother, and he looks more complete than Cutelaba. Ion is supremely violent but usually that lasts about a few minutes and then someone figures out his defense is terrible and he is helpless off of his back. I think Cutelaba either wins this early or fades late. Magomed Ankalaev by TKO, round 3.
Phil Mackenzie: Ion Cutelaba is a wonderful light heavyweight who does extremely light heavyweight things, like looking good and then imploding in a quiet detonation of silliness. Many fighters are simply unprepared for a good athlete who swarms them and will not stop attacking. Others have been able to take advantage of the fact that his style has internalized the concept that defense is for cowards, by punching Cutelaba or taking him down. Ankalaev does seem like something of a cautious fighter, and not one I would class as being invulnerable to being swarmed, but he is also one with a broad skillset and decent baseline athleticism. More importantly, he can Do The Takedown Good and I am unsure if Cutelaba has yet learned to deal with that in any meaningful way. Magomed Ankalaev by submission, round 3.
Zane Simon: Cutelaba is definitely a live dog here. Anyone who can put together his kind of power for multiple rounds always has a good shot. And, while Ankalaev is more technical and better defensively everywhere than Cutelaba, he has tended to get plugged hard at least once in bouts. But, being better technically everywhere and better defensively is kind of a big hill to climb. Cutelaba has a ton of offensive tools, but everything is as equally porous on the defensive side as it is violent on the offensive side. Prepared for Cutelaba to have a couple big moments, but Magomed Ankalaev by decision is the call.
Staff picking Cutelaba:
Staff picking Ankalaev: Ed, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Shak, Zane
Megan Anderson vs. Norma Dumont
Mookie Alexander: Right, so Dumont isn’t a featherweight and her record is mucho padded. My pick is pretty easy. Megan Anderson by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Just because of her willing clinch takedowns and some okay grappling and striking, Dumont has a shot. But, she’s also a 5’7” bantamweight taking on a 6’0” featherweight. Anderson’s not hard to take down, but she’s not so easy that much less physical fighters have been able to do it without trouble. Megan Anderson by decision.
Staff picking Anderson: Ed, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Shak, Zane
Staff picking Dumont:
Derrick Minner vs. Grant Dawson
Mookie Alexander: Derrick Minner will not be a Derrick Winner on Saturday. Grant Dawson by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Dawson is bigger and has a smothering top game that should play right into Minner’s hyper aggressive grappling. Expect a strong round 1 from the short notice replacement, but if he can’t catch a sub in the first few minutes, Dawson will likely take over from there. Grant Dawson via decision.
Staff picking Minner:
Staff picking Dawson: Ed, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Shak, Zane, Phil
Rest of the card
Luis Pena vs. Steve Garcia
Staff picking Pena: Ed, Dayne, Shak, Mookie, Phil
Staff picking Garcia: Stephie, Zane
Gabriel Silva vs. Kyler Phillips
Staff picking Silva: Ed, Stephie, Shak, Zane, Mookie
Staff picking Phillips: Dayne
Brendan Allen vs. Tom Breese
Staff picking Allen: Dayne
Staff picking Breese: Ed, Stephie, Shak, Zane, Mookie, Phil
Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivac
Staff picking Tybura: Ed, Dayne, Shak, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Spivac: Stephie, Mookie
Jordan Griffin vs. TJ Brown
Staff picking Griffin: Ed, Stephie, Dayne, Shak, Zane, Mookie, Phil
Staff picking Brown:
Aalon Cruz vs. Spike Carlyle
Staff picking Cruz: Ed, Stephie, Dayne, Shak, Zane, Mookie, Phil
Staff picking Carlyle:
Sean Brady vs. Ismail Naurdiev
Staff picking Brady: Ed
Staff picking Naurdiev: Stephie, Dayne, Shak, Zane, Mookie, Phil