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UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Silva staff picks and predictions
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions for tomorrow afternoon’s UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Silva card in London, England.
Was anyone brave enough to pick Michael Bisping over Anderson Silva? Why yes, we had two Bloody Elbow staffers go for the upset. Tim Bissell and Anton Tabuena have Bisping winning, while everyone else is siding with Anderson Silva. Tim Burke is picking Thales Leites to upset Gegard Mousasi, making him the lone dissenter for tomorrow’s co-main event.
NOTE: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
NOTE 2: Read Phil’s breakdown of Askham/Dempsey.
Michael Bisping vs. Anderson Silva
Anton Tabuena: A couple of years ago, this would’ve been a complete massacre. Now that they’re not in their fighting primes, I’m not even sure how it plays out. Not only has Silva been really inactive the past few years, it also seems like he has declined severely. He’s 40-years-old, and hasn’t had a win since 2012. Sure, he had a decision against Diaz, but even on PEDs, both men looked so awful that it may have just masked how much he has declined as well. I don’t think the old Silva will ever show up again, so that’s not even a question, but is Bisping good enough to defeat “old” Silva? I think this is much closer than what the odds portray and the fight happening in 2016 becomes much more intriguing. Silva has all the tools to destroy Bisping, but does he still have the reaction time and the durability to pull it off? No one can say for sure, but I’m going for the upset. Michael Bisping by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Bisping is 37 in two days yet concerns over his aging have been completely ignored, and justifiably so given the context of his opponent. This fight boils down to whether Silva is even 70% of the guy who beat Sonnen and Bonnar in 2012. If he’s at that level then he still has enough in the tank to beat Bisping, who almost assuredly will try and take Silva down and ground-and-pound from top position. The big fear? Post-suspension and nearly 41, Silva could look depressingly old, stiff, and no longer capable of head movement, great reflexes, and any sort of speed and accuracy on his strikes. Can you imagine Bisping being able to walk Anderson down and just pressure him with volume punching? Not really, but if Anderson comes in looking shot, then it could happen. Otherwise, I can’t bring myself to actually pick Bisping here. Scraping by against Dollaway and Leites isn’t terribly convincing to me, so it’s down to whether or not Anderson is actually still a top 10 fighter. Screw it, I’m ridin’ with The Spider one last time. Anderson Silva by TKO, round 3.
Fraser Coffeen: Listen, I’m going to make no bones about it – Anderson Silva is my favorite fighter of all time. The things he did in the cage are just incredible, and I don’t see them being matched for a long time. Because of that, I’ve tried to just ignore the last few fights of his career. Because really, things could not have gone much worse for him. Knocked out while clowning, then looking pretty bad in the 2nd Weidman match, then suffering a horrific injury, then coming back only to get suspended… it’s just a terrible, terrible ending to his legacy. Given all of that, the logical outcome here is that he gets completely demolished and KO’d and has his career ended by Michael Bisping of all people. I honestly don’t know what I’ll do if that happens, and so I can come to only one conclusion – such an outcome is simply NOT POSSIBLE. Anderson Silva, KO, R1
Victor Rodriguez: Yeah, I dunno. What little I remember of the Anderson Silva vs Nick Diaz fight, I didn’t like. Silva was gunshy and didn’t look like the legendary perfect weapon, hunter of men – a man that toyed with opponents and bent the rules of reality itself, raising the standards for what martial arts can be. I don’t know if that guy is still around. I don’t know if that guy is gonna show up. I certainly do expect him to bring more to the table this time. His cobwebs shaken off and his motivation apparently higher than before, we could see something close. This fight will be a hell of a lot closer than it would have been 4-5 years ago, but it’s gonna be great with Silva countering and using superior movement in timing while Bisping puts together sharp combinations with no fear. Still have face in the Spider, though. Anderson Silva, TKO R2
Artem Safarov: It’s hard to see the downfall of Anderson Silva. What happened with the all-mighty one, who seemed to be unbreakable? I remember his epic fight with Chael Sonnen, his front-kick knockout of Belfort. He was playing with Stephan Bonnar like some master of puppets playing with one of his dummies. He used to be a Ninja in the cage. But something broke inside and he lost. And then he lost again. Without a doubt we are witnessing the final fights in Anderson’s career, but despite this streak of misfortune, I still root for the Spider. I want him to leave after an epic win. I want him go out as a legend. Anderson Silva via Knockout.
Zane Simon: I’ve tried to take myself through a Michael Bisping win and I just can’t do it. He’d have to win a prolonged kickboxing battle standing and do so as a fighter with limited power who is known for getting hit hard in exchanges. And he’d have to do that against Anderson Silva. Bisping is tougher than his reputation, but there’s zero way I see him regularly landing shots without eating heavy return fire. Anderson Silva via KO Round 2.
Staff picking Bisping: Anton, Tim Bis Staff picking Silva: Mookie, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Victor, Tim, Stephie, Phil, Zane
Thales Leites vs. Gegard Mousasi
Anton Tabuena: Seems like lately, Leites has overachieved, while Mousasi has underperformed. Despite that being true, I think Mousasi is still by far the better fighter overall, so I’m not going to pick against him. Gegard Mousasi by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: I don’t think Mousasi is going to be contending for a middleweight title. He’s got pretty clear losses to Machida, Jacare, and then the Uriah Hall upset loss. Mousasi is just too deep into his career for me to think that he’ll make enough improvements to his game to become a champion. That said, he’s still a damn good fighter, and while it’s tempting to pick the upset with the way Leites has performed in his UFC return, there aren’t too many clear paths to victory for Thales. He’s not crafty enough to outstrike Gegard nor do I see him being able to just overpower and dominate Mousasi on the ground. Mousasi will take this with a methodical points win. Gegard Mousasi by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Interesting fight here and one I am struggling to pick a bit. My gut instinct is just Mousasi all the way, right? I mean, if I step back and think about both men, Gegard Mousasi seems like the obviously superior fighter. But lately, Leites has been way overperforming more often than not. He’s been red hot in his current UFC run, completely erasing the memories of his stinker against the Spider. Yes he got outstruck against Bisping last time out, but he’s still vastly improved and has shown that lately. On the flipside, the always somewhat spotty Mousasi just showed his vulnerability against Hall last time. He’s a better striker than Leites, no doubt, but he’s also able to let his opponent grind him down, which Leites might do. I guess in the end I see the striking edge from Mousasi being too much, but I’m not feeling highly confident in this pick at all. Gegard Mousasi, decision
Victor: Mousasi may be inconsistent, but he’s still one of the best middleweights on the planet. Leites has more than impressed me in coming back to the UFC the way he has, but his use of range isn’t the same as Gegard’s, but he’s got a great set of advantages on the ground if it turns into a grappling battle (fingers crossed). I just think Mousasi’s going to be sharp enough to avoid submissions from top position and/or guard, but finishing Leites will be a very tall order. Mousasi by decision.
Zane Simon: Even if Leites gets this fight to the ground, I’m not that convinced he can just school Mousasi outright. And while Leites has become a solid wrestler and boxer, he’s not a master there at all. Mousasi is too defensively sound, too well rounded, and much sharper standing. Gegard Mousasi via decision.
Staff picking Leites: Tim Staff picking Mousasi: Anton, Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Victor, Stephie, Phil, Zane
Tom Breese vs. Keita Nakamura
Mookie Alexander: Unless Nakamura can get Breese to grapple with him (not that Breese is a slouch there), this will be a blowout. Breese is rounding into a potential top 15 contender at welterweight, and I believe Tristar MMA will definitely turn him into a contender. His striking is crisp, powerful, and he has great finishing skills both standing and on the ground. Nakamura should’ve been KO’d in his last fight, but he will be KO’d this time. Tom Breese by KO, round 1.
Victor: I distinctly remember Jingliang Li beating the piss out of K-Taro until that come from behind win. Big ups to him for that one, but this is a totally different specimen. Breese is winning this however he wants, and he’s gonna look phenomenal doing it.
Phil Mackenzie: Two totally different eras of MMA fighting each other here. Nakamura has a ton of heart and is a great opportunistic sub grappler, but Breese is enormous, fast, strong and has a murderous straight left. Biggest lock on the card by a country mile. Tom Breese by TKO, round 1.
Zane SImon: Tom Breese is going to do terrible terrible things to Nakamura. Tom Breese via KO, Round 1.
Mookie Alexander: Pickett is really shopworn. Still capable, but shopworn. He actually has a good shot if he uses his wrestling and underrated submission skills, but Rivera’s improved takedown defense will make that rough for the Brit. Cisco is the faster striker, heavier puncher, and I think that he’ll be able to bust up Pickett and win on points. Francisco Rivera by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Really good, exciting fight here, but I just don’t see Pickett (now winless in two years) being able to deal with the aggression of Rivera. If Pickett can use his wrestling to shut him down, he can eek out a win, but at 37 years old I think he’s just too far into his career at this point to make that happen consistently enough for 15 minutes. Francisco Rivera, decision
Victor: Pickett has so many great traits as a fighter, but he’s facing a guy that’s a really good wrestler, but faster and a better athlete. For a guy called “One Punch”, he’s got more submission wins than finishes by strikes, but he doesn’t seem to go for as many submissions anymore. That and the fact that he’s had a long career that has had him beat up, leading to him being past his prime, but still very dangerous. Rivera takes this though. Frank Rivera by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Pickett is one of those guys whose balls to the wall, slip’n’counterpunch’n’wrestle style works best against opponents that he can scare off. Conversely, his biggest struggles have come against power punchers who give him space and then just belt him super hard on the way in. Rivera showed a good grasp of distance management and takedown defense against Faber, and should have the reach to be able to pick Pickett off from a distance. Rivera hasn’t historically been the most stable fighter, though, so it’s interesting to see if Pickett can weather the storm and get to him mentally. Francisco Rivera by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I realize that Pickett is tough as an old boot and very much could beat Rivera, but I just don’t see him putting together the consistent striking output to really crack Rivera’s defence to enough effect to change the fight. And, I’m even willing to go out on a limb, and say that this is where we see a big crack in Pickett’s longtime rugged toughness. Francisco Rivera via TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Pickett: Artem, Tim Staff picking Rivera: Mookie, Tim Bis, Nick, Fraser, Victor, Stephie, Anton, Zane
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Mike Wilkinson
Mookie Alexander: Wilkinson has played spoiler before (vs. Niklas Backstrom) but has also been essentially a sacrificial lamb (vs. Rony Jason). He’s only fought 3 times in 4 years and I just can’t rely on that sort of data against a really talented fighter in Amirkhani. Mr. Finland will work him over on the ground and get another stoppage win. Makwan Amirkhani by submission, round 1.
Victor: Amirkhani isn’t a guy we’ve seen that much of in his UFC run, and he’s shown himself to be a special talent for now. His timing is great and he’s got great composure during crazy scrambles. Makwan Amirkhani via submission, R2.
Phil Mackenzie: I didn’t really believe in Backstrom, and I don’t really believe in Amirkhani, for approximately similar reasons- primarily a grappler from a circuit which doesn’t have great grappling, but gets attention because he’s charismatic and because he landed a silly high-octane strike to beat a veteran. Not that both Backstrom and Amirkhani aren’t very talented, but I think they both still had / have significant stylistic development to make. I’m still going to pick him- he’s the better athlete, he has a better idea of what he wants to do than Backstrom did, but if he gets shucked off in the clinch a couple of times, this fight could go downhill fast. Makwan Amirkhani by submission, round 2.
Zane Simon: So many questions to be answered by both men. Wilkinson has barely stepped in the cage at all over the past few years and Amirkhani has blasted through the fighters put in his path. I think Wilkinson will hang tough and make this a good fight, but Amirkhani is too good a scrambler and to great an athlete for Wilson’s very meat and potatoes style to beat. Makwan Amirkhani via decision.
Victor: Ooh, damn. Chito Vera is a very nice guy and all, but I can’t trust South American prospects right now. Grappling for MMA isn’t as advanced south of Mexico yet, and Grant has a bunch of submission wins. David Grant via submission.
Zane Simon: Grant actually has quite a bit of power and Vera is scrappy and willing, but not very good. David Grant via TKO, Round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: The primary thing I worry for about Grant in this fight is how long he’s been out. Other than that this should be a quick and violent showcase of offense vs offense where Grant is the much better scrambler and submission grappler. Davey Grant by submission, round 1.
Mookie Alexander: Phil’s got this covered. Scott Askham by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The man in the tavern raised his voice, “I have as much right to the crown as any man. More!” The small crowd around him rumbled assent. “The Dempsey line is the longest, the greatest in Scrapper history!” he continued, emboldened by the support. In a darkened corner, Askham took a sip of lukewarm ale and studied the speaker. He’d had his own childish dreams of being king once. Back then he’d been the leader of the most feared gang in the Yorkshire collieries. One day he’d heard that a fighter had entered his territory, and sent off a couple of his best to deal with the newcomer, thinking no more of it. Two days later a craggy man showed up at the entrance to the mineshaft, face crimson with exhaustion. “I’m lookin’ for the one… they call Coal-Heart.” he puffed, resting his hands on his knees. A roughened voice, but Askham could tell he was a Southern Pansy. “Aye, ye’ve found him” he said, wary. “… sorry… about your men.” “Ye’re the fighter? Ye beat me lads?” said Askham. He thought of something. “… an it took ye two days?” “A real Scrapper can beat any man… given enough time.” said the newcomer. As he recovered his breath, he straightened. “I can… teach you how, y’know.” He extended one calloused hand. “They call me Tom. Tho’ it’s more a title than a name…” Years later, Askham stood. He pushed his way through the crowd and stood over the man seated at the table. He unhooked the iron pendant from around the neck, tossed it onto the table. The crowd hushed as they saw the snarling ape etched into the pendant’s surface, the sigil of a Watson. “Ye’ll stop this fool talk of being king,” he said bluntly. Dempsey paled slightly, but set his jaw. “No. It’s my destiny. I can save this country.” Close up, Askham saw that the American looked seasoned, not the desperate whiner he might have been expecting. The Dempsey bloodline still running strong, then. “Folk allus think what’s pushing them is destiny or fate.” Askham said. “Never just th’want for riches or fame.” He picked the pendant up. “Aye. Come on, then. Let’s go fight.” Scott Askham by TKO, round 2
Victor: Meza’s been around for some time, and he’s a really solid talent. Arnold Allen’s young and inexperienced, but he’s hungry, energetic, strong and crafty for a guy his age. Allen should be able to capitalize later on in the fight. Arnold Allen by TKO, R3.
Phil Mackenzie: This is sort of the pint-size version of Pendred-Breese. Allen has by far the brighter future of the two fighters, but he’s going to have to either (a) develop some better striking or (b) beat a veteran at what’s essentially their speciality. I think he can probably do either one of those things, but more than his technical or even physical gifts I’m going to pick based on his ability to just keep pushing a pace on less athletic opponents. Arnold Allen by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I think there’s a solid chance that Allen’s willingness to take the fight where ever gets him submitted by a longtime vet like Meza. It happens a lot and usually in fights like this. But to date Allen has just been too good an athlete, too well rounded, and just not the kind of guy that Meza has classically gotten wins over. Arnold Allen via decision.
Staff picking Allen: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Stephie, Phil, Anton, Zane Staff picking Meza: Tim
Krzysztof Jotko vs. Bradley Scott
Phil Mackenzie: Surprised to see so many people picking Jotko- this one is basically a coin-flip to me. I’m going to pick him because I think he showed he could set up entries and strikes on a bigger, stronger opponent the last time out, but this is super close. Krysztof Jotko by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: This is a really tough one and should be a fun fight. For the sake of everyone picking against him, I’ll go with Brad Scott. He’s huge and tough and a great clinch scrapper. If Jotko can crack him early or get a sub off a big takedown early in the fight, he can win. But as the fight goes on, I think it favor’s Scott’s patient, consistent, power grinding approach. Bradley Scott via decision.
Staff picking Jotko: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Tim, Stephie, Anton Staff picking Scott: Zane
Rustam Khabilov vs. Norman Parke
Mookie Alexander: Ugh. Khabilov was ahead on the scorecards against Ben Henderson before round 4 but then looked pretty impotent against the admittedly quality Adriano Martins. Parke isn’t flashy when he wins and his losses have been razor-close. Norman has better TDD and slightly higher volume of strikes, so I’ll go with him. Norman Parke by split decision.
Victor: Parke can make his fights ugly and just frustrates opponents by disrupting their timing and applying constant pressure and controlling grappling. We may not be happy with what this looks like, but Parke knows how to win fights in a way judges can’t deny him. It is what it is. Parke by decision
Phil Mackenzie: This is an “expression of disinterest” booking. Two of the best fighters on the card being put way down the bout order, in a fight where their strengths are likely to cancel each other out, likely resulting in an ugly kickboxing affair which can justify further mediocre card placements in future. Parke does have the slight advantage in pace, but Hobby Love is a much harder hitter and overall a better athlete- because Parke is such a neutralizer, it’s relatively easy to get a feel for exactly where his ceiling is (his fights are essentially offense titration), and I think that ceiling is juuust below Khabilov. Rustam Khabilov by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I feel like Parke, in his quest to become a better striker, has become a worse fighter overall. Khabilov isn’t the hot prospect he was thought to be, but against someone unlikely to hurt him standing I think he’ll have too many opportunities to wrestle, even if Parke’s wrestling game is strong. Rustam Khabilov via decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Danho at current time appears to be a slightly bigger version of Soa Palelei, with a better gas tank but without (and I’m not even kidding) Soa’s level of technical craft. Pass. Daniel Omielanczuk by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: There’s no real reason not to pick Omielanczuk, but given his lack of size for a heavyweight and his general need for infinite time and space to launch his range game, don’t be shocked if he gets blasted into orbit by the inexperienced monster that is Jarjis Danho. Daniel Omielanczuk via decision.
Staff picking Danho: Nick, Tim Staff picking Omielanczuk: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Fraser, Stephie, Phil, Anton, Zane
Thibault Gouti vs. Teemu Packalen
Phil Mackenzie: Despite the short notice, I think I’m actually going to take Gouti here. Although I might be overplaying him, I still think beating Anton Kuivanen means something, particularly in a 3-round, relatively back-and-forth fight. Gouti showed he has a strong chin and cardio, and a pretty good understanding of what distance he wants to fight at to land consistent offense, and more than that the sheer physicality to back Kuivanen out of the clinch a couple of times. If he can force Packalen into that kind of fight (big if) he can box him up or potentially even get a stoppage. Thibault Gouti by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Gouti has a good boxing game, when his opponent isn’t throwing back, but I have serious questions about his wrestling. Packalen is bigger, more well rounded, and about as experienced. I think he’ll be able to put enough pressure on Gouti to stop him from throwing a lot of strikes and then use his superior takedown game to put the frenchman on his back and grind out a win. Teemu Packalen via decision.
Staff picking Gouti: Anton, Phil Staff picking Packalen: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Tim, Stephie, Zane
Martin Svensson vs. David Teymur
Fraser Coffeen: This is two TUF 22 teammates squaring off in a nice fight. Teymur doesn’t have a ton of MMA experience, but he does bring in seriously legit kickboxing credentials. He had some good moments in his TUF fights, but also seemed to struggle with his cardio. Svensson is an experienced fighter with a good ground game. On the show, he used that grappling advantage to deal with the superior striking of Thanh Le – that’s probably a sort of preview for what we will see here. I like Teymur, and think he has a future in MMA, but he’s still developing, and this is a match-up that plays right into his weaknesses. Martin Svensson, sub, round 2
Zane Simon: Svensson is about as physically underwhelming a specimen as the UFC brings in. He’s big and rangy and an aggressive grappler, which works great regionally, but I have major doubts about his ability to make that game work in the UFC. I think he’ll spend way too much time in the clinch trying to find a way to take Teymur down and will get beat up there for his trouble. David Teymur via TKO, Round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Another striker-vs-grappler matchup. Teymur is giving up a lot of size here, which makes me somewhat iffy about his chances- it can be a big equalizer for a weaker striker just to be able to land at distance and compel the shorter fighter to dart in. Conversely, though, this also means that Svensson has never really developed much of a shot at all, which means that he’s either going to have to counter Teymur’s active kicking game by walking through it to clinch, or with his own standup. I think the gas tank might give Teymur a late scare, but David Teymur by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Svensson: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Fraser, Tim, Stephie, Anton Staff picking Teymur: Nick, Zane, Phil
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions for tomorrow afternoon’s UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Silva card in London, England.
Was anyone brave enough to pick Michael Bisping over Anderson Silva? Why yes, we had two Bloody Elbow staffers go for the upset. Tim Bissell and Anton Tabuena have Bisping winning, while everyone else is siding with Anderson Silva. Tim Burke is picking Thales Leites to upset Gegard Mousasi, making him the lone dissenter for tomorrow’s co-main event.
NOTE: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
NOTE 2: Read Phil’s breakdown of Askham/Dempsey.
Michael Bisping vs. Anderson Silva
Anton Tabuena: A couple of years ago, this would’ve been a complete massacre. Now that they’re not in their fighting primes, I’m not even sure how it plays out. Not only has Silva been really inactive the past few years, it also seems like he has declined severely. He’s 40-years-old, and hasn’t had a win since 2012. Sure, he had a decision against Diaz, but even on PEDs, both men looked so awful that it may have just masked how much he has declined as well. I don’t think the old Silva will ever show up again, so that’s not even a question, but is Bisping good enough to defeat “old” Silva? I think this is much closer than what the odds portray and the fight happening in 2016 becomes much more intriguing. Silva has all the tools to destroy Bisping, but does he still have the reaction time and the durability to pull it off? No one can say for sure, but I’m going for the upset. Michael Bisping by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Bisping is 37 in two days yet concerns over his aging have been completely ignored, and justifiably so given the context of his opponent. This fight boils down to whether Silva is even 70% of the guy who beat Sonnen and Bonnar in 2012. If he’s at that level then he still has enough in the tank to beat Bisping, who almost assuredly will try and take Silva down and ground-and-pound from top position. The big fear? Post-suspension and nearly 41, Silva could look depressingly old, stiff, and no longer capable of head movement, great reflexes, and any sort of speed and accuracy on his strikes. Can you imagine Bisping being able to walk Anderson down and just pressure him with volume punching? Not really, but if Anderson comes in looking shot, then it could happen. Otherwise, I can’t bring myself to actually pick Bisping here. Scraping by against Dollaway and Leites isn’t terribly convincing to me, so it’s down to whether or not Anderson is actually still a top 10 fighter. Screw it, I’m ridin’ with The Spider one last time. Anderson Silva by TKO, round 3.
Fraser Coffeen: Listen, I’m going to make no bones about it – Anderson Silva is my favorite fighter of all time. The things he did in the cage are just incredible, and I don’t see them being matched for a long time. Because of that, I’ve tried to just ignore the last few fights of his career. Because really, things could not have gone much worse for him. Knocked out while clowning, then looking pretty bad in the 2nd Weidman match, then suffering a horrific injury, then coming back only to get suspended… it’s just a terrible, terrible ending to his legacy. Given all of that, the logical outcome here is that he gets completely demolished and KO’d and has his career ended by Michael Bisping of all people. I honestly don’t know what I’ll do if that happens, and so I can come to only one conclusion – such an outcome is simply NOT POSSIBLE. Anderson Silva, KO, R1
Victor Rodriguez: Yeah, I dunno. What little I remember of the Anderson Silva vs Nick Diaz fight, I didn’t like. Silva was gunshy and didn’t look like the legendary perfect weapon, hunter of men – a man that toyed with opponents and bent the rules of reality itself, raising the standards for what martial arts can be. I don’t know if that guy is still around. I don’t know if that guy is gonna show up. I certainly do expect him to bring more to the table this time. His cobwebs shaken off and his motivation apparently higher than before, we could see something close. This fight will be a hell of a lot closer than it would have been 4-5 years ago, but it’s gonna be great with Silva countering and using superior movement in timing while Bisping puts together sharp combinations with no fear. Still have face in the Spider, though. Anderson Silva, TKO R2
Artem Safarov: It’s hard to see the downfall of Anderson Silva. What happened with the all-mighty one, who seemed to be unbreakable? I remember his epic fight with Chael Sonnen, his front-kick knockout of Belfort. He was playing with Stephan Bonnar like some master of puppets playing with one of his dummies. He used to be a Ninja in the cage. But something broke inside and he lost. And then he lost again. Without a doubt we are witnessing the final fights in Anderson’s career, but despite this streak of misfortune, I still root for the Spider. I want him to leave after an epic win. I want him go out as a legend. Anderson Silva via Knockout.
Zane Simon: I’ve tried to take myself through a Michael Bisping win and I just can’t do it. He’d have to win a prolonged kickboxing battle standing and do so as a fighter with limited power who is known for getting hit hard in exchanges. And he’d have to do that against Anderson Silva. Bisping is tougher than his reputation, but there’s zero way I see him regularly landing shots without eating heavy return fire. Anderson Silva via KO Round 2.
Staff picking Bisping: Anton, Tim Bis Staff picking Silva: Mookie, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Victor, Tim, Stephie, Phil, Zane
Thales Leites vs. Gegard Mousasi
Anton Tabuena: Seems like lately, Leites has overachieved, while Mousasi has underperformed. Despite that being true, I think Mousasi is still by far the better fighter overall, so I’m not going to pick against him. Gegard Mousasi by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: I don’t think Mousasi is going to be contending for a middleweight title. He’s got pretty clear losses to Machida, Jacare, and then the Uriah Hall upset loss. Mousasi is just too deep into his career for me to think that he’ll make enough improvements to his game to become a champion. That said, he’s still a damn good fighter, and while it’s tempting to pick the upset with the way Leites has performed in his UFC return, there aren’t too many clear paths to victory for Thales. He’s not crafty enough to outstrike Gegard nor do I see him being able to just overpower and dominate Mousasi on the ground. Mousasi will take this with a methodical points win. Gegard Mousasi by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Interesting fight here and one I am struggling to pick a bit. My gut instinct is just Mousasi all the way, right? I mean, if I step back and think about both men, Gegard Mousasi seems like the obviously superior fighter. But lately, Leites has been way overperforming more often than not. He’s been red hot in his current UFC run, completely erasing the memories of his stinker against the Spider. Yes he got outstruck against Bisping last time out, but he’s still vastly improved and has shown that lately. On the flipside, the always somewhat spotty Mousasi just showed his vulnerability against Hall last time. He’s a better striker than Leites, no doubt, but he’s also able to let his opponent grind him down, which Leites might do. I guess in the end I see the striking edge from Mousasi being too much, but I’m not feeling highly confident in this pick at all. Gegard Mousasi, decision
Victor: Mousasi may be inconsistent, but he’s still one of the best middleweights on the planet. Leites has more than impressed me in coming back to the UFC the way he has, but his use of range isn’t the same as Gegard’s, but he’s got a great set of advantages on the ground if it turns into a grappling battle (fingers crossed). I just think Mousasi’s going to be sharp enough to avoid submissions from top position and/or guard, but finishing Leites will be a very tall order. Mousasi by decision.
Zane Simon: Even if Leites gets this fight to the ground, I’m not that convinced he can just school Mousasi outright. And while Leites has become a solid wrestler and boxer, he’s not a master there at all. Mousasi is too defensively sound, too well rounded, and much sharper standing. Gegard Mousasi via decision.
Staff picking Leites: Tim Staff picking Mousasi: Anton, Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Victor, Stephie, Phil, Zane
Tom Breese vs. Keita Nakamura
Mookie Alexander: Unless Nakamura can get Breese to grapple with him (not that Breese is a slouch there), this will be a blowout. Breese is rounding into a potential top 15 contender at welterweight, and I believe Tristar MMA will definitely turn him into a contender. His striking is crisp, powerful, and he has great finishing skills both standing and on the ground. Nakamura should’ve been KO’d in his last fight, but he will be KO’d this time. Tom Breese by KO, round 1.
Victor: I distinctly remember Jingliang Li beating the piss out of K-Taro until that come from behind win. Big ups to him for that one, but this is a totally different specimen. Breese is winning this however he wants, and he’s gonna look phenomenal doing it.
Phil Mackenzie: Two totally different eras of MMA fighting each other here. Nakamura has a ton of heart and is a great opportunistic sub grappler, but Breese is enormous, fast, strong and has a murderous straight left. Biggest lock on the card by a country mile. Tom Breese by TKO, round 1.
Zane SImon: Tom Breese is going to do terrible terrible things to Nakamura. Tom Breese via KO, Round 1.
Mookie Alexander: Pickett is really shopworn. Still capable, but shopworn. He actually has a good shot if he uses his wrestling and underrated submission skills, but Rivera’s improved takedown defense will make that rough for the Brit. Cisco is the faster striker, heavier puncher, and I think that he’ll be able to bust up Pickett and win on points. Francisco Rivera by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Really good, exciting fight here, but I just don’t see Pickett (now winless in two years) being able to deal with the aggression of Rivera. If Pickett can use his wrestling to shut him down, he can eek out a win, but at 37 years old I think he’s just too far into his career at this point to make that happen consistently enough for 15 minutes. Francisco Rivera, decision
Victor: Pickett has so many great traits as a fighter, but he’s facing a guy that’s a really good wrestler, but faster and a better athlete. For a guy called “One Punch”, he’s got more submission wins than finishes by strikes, but he doesn’t seem to go for as many submissions anymore. That and the fact that he’s had a long career that has had him beat up, leading to him being past his prime, but still very dangerous. Rivera takes this though. Frank Rivera by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Pickett is one of those guys whose balls to the wall, slip’n’counterpunch’n’wrestle style works best against opponents that he can scare off. Conversely, his biggest struggles have come against power punchers who give him space and then just belt him super hard on the way in. Rivera showed a good grasp of distance management and takedown defense against Faber, and should have the reach to be able to pick Pickett off from a distance. Rivera hasn’t historically been the most stable fighter, though, so it’s interesting to see if Pickett can weather the storm and get to him mentally. Francisco Rivera by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I realize that Pickett is tough as an old boot and very much could beat Rivera, but I just don’t see him putting together the consistent striking output to really crack Rivera’s defence to enough effect to change the fight. And, I’m even willing to go out on a limb, and say that this is where we see a big crack in Pickett’s longtime rugged toughness. Francisco Rivera via TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Pickett: Artem, Tim Staff picking Rivera: Mookie, Tim Bis, Nick, Fraser, Victor, Stephie, Anton, Zane
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Mike Wilkinson
Mookie Alexander: Wilkinson has played spoiler before (vs. Niklas Backstrom) but has also been essentially a sacrificial lamb (vs. Rony Jason). He’s only fought 3 times in 4 years and I just can’t rely on that sort of data against a really talented fighter in Amirkhani. Mr. Finland will work him over on the ground and get another stoppage win. Makwan Amirkhani by submission, round 1.
Victor: Amirkhani isn’t a guy we’ve seen that much of in his UFC run, and he’s shown himself to be a special talent for now. His timing is great and he’s got great composure during crazy scrambles. Makwan Amirkhani via submission, R2.
Phil Mackenzie: I didn’t really believe in Backstrom, and I don’t really believe in Amirkhani, for approximately similar reasons- primarily a grappler from a circuit which doesn’t have great grappling, but gets attention because he’s charismatic and because he landed a silly high-octane strike to beat a veteran. Not that both Backstrom and Amirkhani aren’t very talented, but I think they both still had / have significant stylistic development to make. I’m still going to pick him- he’s the better athlete, he has a better idea of what he wants to do than Backstrom did, but if he gets shucked off in the clinch a couple of times, this fight could go downhill fast. Makwan Amirkhani by submission, round 2.
Zane Simon: So many questions to be answered by both men. Wilkinson has barely stepped in the cage at all over the past few years and Amirkhani has blasted through the fighters put in his path. I think Wilkinson will hang tough and make this a good fight, but Amirkhani is too good a scrambler and to great an athlete for Wilson’s very meat and potatoes style to beat. Makwan Amirkhani via decision.
Victor: Ooh, damn. Chito Vera is a very nice guy and all, but I can’t trust South American prospects right now. Grappling for MMA isn’t as advanced south of Mexico yet, and Grant has a bunch of submission wins. David Grant via submission.
Zane Simon: Grant actually has quite a bit of power and Vera is scrappy and willing, but not very good. David Grant via TKO, Round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: The primary thing I worry for about Grant in this fight is how long he’s been out. Other than that this should be a quick and violent showcase of offense vs offense where Grant is the much better scrambler and submission grappler. Davey Grant by submission, round 1.
Mookie Alexander: Phil’s got this covered. Scott Askham by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The man in the tavern raised his voice, “I have as much right to the crown as any man. More!” The small crowd around him rumbled assent. “The Dempsey line is the longest, the greatest in Scrapper history!” he continued, emboldened by the support. In a darkened corner, Askham took a sip of lukewarm ale and studied the speaker. He’d had his own childish dreams of being king once. Back then he’d been the leader of the most feared gang in the Yorkshire collieries. One day he’d heard that a fighter had entered his territory, and sent off a couple of his best to deal with the newcomer, thinking no more of it. Two days later a craggy man showed up at the entrance to the mineshaft, face crimson with exhaustion. “I’m lookin’ for the one… they call Coal-Heart.” he puffed, resting his hands on his knees. A roughened voice, but Askham could tell he was a Southern Pansy. “Aye, ye’ve found him” he said, wary. “… sorry… about your men.” “Ye’re the fighter? Ye beat me lads?” said Askham. He thought of something. “… an it took ye two days?” “A real Scrapper can beat any man… given enough time.” said the newcomer. As he recovered his breath, he straightened. “I can… teach you how, y’know.” He extended one calloused hand. “They call me Tom. Tho’ it’s more a title than a name…” Years later, Askham stood. He pushed his way through the crowd and stood over the man seated at the table. He unhooked the iron pendant from around the neck, tossed it onto the table. The crowd hushed as they saw the snarling ape etched into the pendant’s surface, the sigil of a Watson. “Ye’ll stop this fool talk of being king,” he said bluntly. Dempsey paled slightly, but set his jaw. “No. It’s my destiny. I can save this country.” Close up, Askham saw that the American looked seasoned, not the desperate whiner he might have been expecting. The Dempsey bloodline still running strong, then. “Folk allus think what’s pushing them is destiny or fate.” Askham said. “Never just th’want for riches or fame.” He picked the pendant up. “Aye. Come on, then. Let’s go fight.” Scott Askham by TKO, round 2
Victor: Meza’s been around for some time, and he’s a really solid talent. Arnold Allen’s young and inexperienced, but he’s hungry, energetic, strong and crafty for a guy his age. Allen should be able to capitalize later on in the fight. Arnold Allen by TKO, R3.
Phil Mackenzie: This is sort of the pint-size version of Pendred-Breese. Allen has by far the brighter future of the two fighters, but he’s going to have to either (a) develop some better striking or (b) beat a veteran at what’s essentially their speciality. I think he can probably do either one of those things, but more than his technical or even physical gifts I’m going to pick based on his ability to just keep pushing a pace on less athletic opponents. Arnold Allen by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I think there’s a solid chance that Allen’s willingness to take the fight where ever gets him submitted by a longtime vet like Meza. It happens a lot and usually in fights like this. But to date Allen has just been too good an athlete, too well rounded, and just not the kind of guy that Meza has classically gotten wins over. Arnold Allen via decision.
Staff picking Allen: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Stephie, Phil, Anton, Zane Staff picking Meza: Tim
Krzysztof Jotko vs. Bradley Scott
Phil Mackenzie: Surprised to see so many people picking Jotko- this one is basically a coin-flip to me. I’m going to pick him because I think he showed he could set up entries and strikes on a bigger, stronger opponent the last time out, but this is super close. Krysztof Jotko by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: This is a really tough one and should be a fun fight. For the sake of everyone picking against him, I’ll go with Brad Scott. He’s huge and tough and a great clinch scrapper. If Jotko can crack him early or get a sub off a big takedown early in the fight, he can win. But as the fight goes on, I think it favor’s Scott’s patient, consistent, power grinding approach. Bradley Scott via decision.
Staff picking Jotko: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Tim, Stephie, Anton Staff picking Scott: Zane
Rustam Khabilov vs. Norman Parke
Mookie Alexander: Ugh. Khabilov was ahead on the scorecards against Ben Henderson before round 4 but then looked pretty impotent against the admittedly quality Adriano Martins. Parke isn’t flashy when he wins and his losses have been razor-close. Norman has better TDD and slightly higher volume of strikes, so I’ll go with him. Norman Parke by split decision.
Victor: Parke can make his fights ugly and just frustrates opponents by disrupting their timing and applying constant pressure and controlling grappling. We may not be happy with what this looks like, but Parke knows how to win fights in a way judges can’t deny him. It is what it is. Parke by decision
Phil Mackenzie: This is an “expression of disinterest” booking. Two of the best fighters on the card being put way down the bout order, in a fight where their strengths are likely to cancel each other out, likely resulting in an ugly kickboxing affair which can justify further mediocre card placements in future. Parke does have the slight advantage in pace, but Hobby Love is a much harder hitter and overall a better athlete- because Parke is such a neutralizer, it’s relatively easy to get a feel for exactly where his ceiling is (his fights are essentially offense titration), and I think that ceiling is juuust below Khabilov. Rustam Khabilov by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I feel like Parke, in his quest to become a better striker, has become a worse fighter overall. Khabilov isn’t the hot prospect he was thought to be, but against someone unlikely to hurt him standing I think he’ll have too many opportunities to wrestle, even if Parke’s wrestling game is strong. Rustam Khabilov via decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Danho at current time appears to be a slightly bigger version of Soa Palelei, with a better gas tank but without (and I’m not even kidding) Soa’s level of technical craft. Pass. Daniel Omielanczuk by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: There’s no real reason not to pick Omielanczuk, but given his lack of size for a heavyweight and his general need for infinite time and space to launch his range game, don’t be shocked if he gets blasted into orbit by the inexperienced monster that is Jarjis Danho. Daniel Omielanczuk via decision.
Staff picking Danho: Nick, Tim Staff picking Omielanczuk: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Fraser, Stephie, Phil, Anton, Zane
Thibault Gouti vs. Teemu Packalen
Phil Mackenzie: Despite the short notice, I think I’m actually going to take Gouti here. Although I might be overplaying him, I still think beating Anton Kuivanen means something, particularly in a 3-round, relatively back-and-forth fight. Gouti showed he has a strong chin and cardio, and a pretty good understanding of what distance he wants to fight at to land consistent offense, and more than that the sheer physicality to back Kuivanen out of the clinch a couple of times. If he can force Packalen into that kind of fight (big if) he can box him up or potentially even get a stoppage. Thibault Gouti by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Gouti has a good boxing game, when his opponent isn’t throwing back, but I have serious questions about his wrestling. Packalen is bigger, more well rounded, and about as experienced. I think he’ll be able to put enough pressure on Gouti to stop him from throwing a lot of strikes and then use his superior takedown game to put the frenchman on his back and grind out a win. Teemu Packalen via decision.
Staff picking Gouti: Anton, Phil Staff picking Packalen: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Nick, Fraser, Tim, Stephie, Zane
Martin Svensson vs. David Teymur
Fraser Coffeen: This is two TUF 22 teammates squaring off in a nice fight. Teymur doesn’t have a ton of MMA experience, but he does bring in seriously legit kickboxing credentials. He had some good moments in his TUF fights, but also seemed to struggle with his cardio. Svensson is an experienced fighter with a good ground game. On the show, he used that grappling advantage to deal with the superior striking of Thanh Le – that’s probably a sort of preview for what we will see here. I like Teymur, and think he has a future in MMA, but he’s still developing, and this is a match-up that plays right into his weaknesses. Martin Svensson, sub, round 2
Zane Simon: Svensson is about as physically underwhelming a specimen as the UFC brings in. He’s big and rangy and an aggressive grappler, which works great regionally, but I have major doubts about his ability to make that game work in the UFC. I think he’ll spend way too much time in the clinch trying to find a way to take Teymur down and will get beat up there for his trouble. David Teymur via TKO, Round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Another striker-vs-grappler matchup. Teymur is giving up a lot of size here, which makes me somewhat iffy about his chances- it can be a big equalizer for a weaker striker just to be able to land at distance and compel the shorter fighter to dart in. Conversely, though, this also means that Svensson has never really developed much of a shot at all, which means that he’s either going to have to counter Teymur’s active kicking game by walking through it to clinch, or with his own standup. I think the gas tank might give Teymur a late scare, but David Teymur by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Svensson: Mookie, Tim Bis, Artem, Fraser, Tim, Stephie, Anton Staff picking Teymur: Nick, Zane, Phil
