Phil and David break down everything you need to know about Swanson vs. Ortega for UFC Fresno, and everything you don’t about losing ‘til you’re not.
Cub Swanson vs. Brian Ortega headlines UFC Fresno this December 9, 2017 at the Save Mart Center in Fresno, California.
One sentence summary
Phil: The old “winning till he wasn’t” guard of featherweight action fighter takes on the new blood of “losing ’till he doesn’t”
David: The literal disaster artists journey for the UFC’s Oscar in FOTY potential.
Stats
Record: Cub Swanson 25-7 | Brian Ortega 12-0-1 NC
Odds: Cub Swanson -105 | Brian Ortega -115
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: Swanson is experiencing something of a Matt Brown-esque bubble. With a series of really excellent wins, he’s back on the map as a quality contender. There’s no universe where fans will ever complain about Cub on a card. He’s the cob on the main card corn; an essential product for the nutrition of pugilism watching. Still, you have to wonder if this is where the inspired run ends. Ortega is legit in ways I still can’t quite comprehend, which makes this must-watch TV as long as you have fallen asleep by the 10th hour in the middle of boost mobile commercial.
Phil: Swanson has a strange mix of faded vets (Kawajiri), never-was prospects (Dias), and up-and-comers (Superboy) on his recent docket. Oh, and Lobov. You know, I’d already forgotten that fight? Anyway, it isn’t the kind of mixture which would have catapulted him to a title shot. Honestly, I would have liked to see him fill in for Edgar for Holloway, in a kind of Bisping-esque “lifetime achievement award” opportunity. Sadly, but unsurprisingly, that’s not quite how the brass see him. I think Swanson has reached that point in his career when he wants money, or a shot at a belt, preferably both.
David: Ortega debuted to an interesting success. His first fight was overturned for whatever chemical we should be legalizing in order for athletes to better repair their bodies, and then had a barnburner with Thiago Tavares. Still, it’s Tavares; a fighter who’s no longer elite. Despite this, Ortega just began threading the hell out of his talents. His fight against Moicaino was all kinds of awesome – I’m not sure Ortega necessarily fought to his strengths, but it’s always a nominally good sign when you can fight a dude on his own terms and take the win comfortably anyway.
Phil: Ortega is an absolute puzzler. His closest analogue is likely Pedro Munhoz, but even then Munhoz has at least won rounds in the UFC. I don’t think I’ve scored a single round for Ortega in his entire UFC career that he didn’t go on to finish. Perhaps it’s recency bias, but another decent analogue would be Justin Gaethje. All offense, all the time, until he drops or the other guy does. That’s a recipe for a can’t-miss fighter.
What’s at stake?
David: It’s rare for a prospect to be in a spot this good. Ortega can drop this fight, and still be a fantastic presence in the division. Same with Swanson (albeit, in a very different way). This is the rare ‘nothing to complain about’ bout, and I’m pretty sure Dana is not around to screw it up.
Phil: Cub is fighting out his contract. I suspect if he loses, there’s a good chance that he’s Bellator-bound. Hell, if he wins there’s probably a good chance, too, if the brass doesn’t guarantee him that he gets next after Edgar(?) comes back. There aren’t too many surging fighters around at featherweight at the moment, so it’s possible, but the UFC has traditionally been highly allergic to power plays from their fighters.
David: Nevermind…
Where do they want it?
David: Swanson is the best kind of spotpicker. Like a tune without a typical time signature, Swanson constantly punctuates the fight with spinning wheel kicks, Only the Strong strike patterns, and punches thrown from the arctic, making Cub an eccentric, but fun source of pugilism. It holds him back in some ways – fighters with pure rhythm will “expose” him – but it’s also the live, die, sword strategy that allows him to pick up wins against quality fighters like Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, and uhh…Artem Lobov (?). No disrespect of course. Unlike most fighters like him, Swanson never conceals his artistry for weak fundamentals. He has a strong jab, works the body, and struggles defensively more on the ground than on the feet, where you’d expect. Swanson wouldn’t as effective if he fashioned himself after more rote competitors anyway.
Phil: Swanson is a profoundly schizophrenic fighter. There are two Cubs: the Joel Diaz trained technician, who works behind a probing jab, body shots and head movement, and there’s the Winkeljohn-trained free-flowing fighters who throws huge, deliberately looping shots outside of his opponents vision, and cartwheel kicks, and switches stances at will. His success is normally predicated on which of those is the better option for a given opponent, and how appropriately he selects his options. Cub remains an underrated (if slightly fading) athlete, and his most unappreciated physical trait is how tough he is. Prime Aldo had to explode his head with flying knees to get him out of there, and Max Holloway broke his jaw without actually knocking him out.
David: Over the course of just a few fights, Ortega has gone from fascinating jiu jitsu upstart, to fence busting slugger. Obviously, Ortega is not one or the other, but I was pretty shocked by the Renato Moicano fight. Ortega flicked, prodded, and committed to a jab. Okay cool. Ortega pressures with typical strongman punches like overhand rights and left hooks. Careful dude. Ortega gets busted by Moicano’s leaning heaters. Get the fight to the ground bro. Ortega eats each shot, effectively sticks to his punch gameplan, and wins. Damn good stuff sir.
This is more or less the evolution of Ortega’s skillset that had me buzzing. I thought Moicano – a very polished, Barboza-lite striker – would have the advantage on the feet but somehow Ortega remain completely unphased, working subtle head movement (rolling with punches and dipping for entries), durability, and aggression into an efficient whole. Dominick Cruz, who is sometimes really good on the mic and other times kind of just absent, noted the source of his aggression; Ortega is too good on the ground to give two s–ts about being wrestled. It’s an attitude I wish grapplers adopted in greater numbers. Why expend so much energy avoiding hitting your back? I realize fighting is more complicated, but I think Ortega reveals the nuance of its benefits. By focusing on his advantages, movement to movement, he can accrue more time in his comfort zones, and ultimately, the general advantage of simply winning the fight. Transition fighting is still very important, but if your style doesn’t explicitly benefit from it, why pretend it’ll make the difference? Ortega isn’t uniquely athletic anyway (thinking DJ and Ngannou levels). It’s what I love about his style. It’s pared down in the places that could otherwise distract from small and big efficiencies, making for a nice cantilevered quality.
Phil: I compared him to Munhoz, but Ortega is different from Munhoz in that he is visibly much, much better than he was when he first joined the UFC. It’s simply that as his level of competition has improved, so has he, but in very specific ways, and primarily in terms of his offense. His jab was always pretty good, but he rarely had anything else behind it aside from like… a flying knee. That Moicano fight showcased him working in combination, attacking the body, and switching up his angles. Like I said, I’m still not sure that I actually gave him any rounds, but he put such a brutal pace on Moicano that the canny Brazilian was tired enough to try and shoot for a takedown on Ortega in the last round. That has been disaster for pretty much everyone who has tried it. “T-City” is one of the most horrifically voracious submission threats I have ever seen in the UFC, attacking onto triangles, guillotines and back-takes like no-one told him submission grappling from the back is a non-optimal way of winning fights. Normally when the commentary team are talking about how it’s inadvisable to take someone down because of the deadly threat of their guard, the response is: sure. It’s really hard to submit people from guard. Ortega is one of those few fighters where you really, really do NOT want to take him down.
Insight from past fights
David: Was Swanson vs. Lobov really fight of the night, or was it just Dana giving Lobov enough to afford a nice holiday gift for Conor? Asking for a friend. Since 2011, Swanson has only been bested by Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. On paper, that’s excellent, which makes you wonder how he ended up fighting Lobov. However, as we saw against Lobov and Choi (less so), I see a little bit of career fatigue in Swanson’s game. He’s an elite fighter in the division and all – but he seems to wane a bit more than usual. The mustard on his punches are dialed back a bit, and his creativity can only sustain itself for so long. There were times against Lobov when he’d substitute raw movement for pressure (?), asking his opponent to call his bluff. Maybe this is more of an x-factor than actual insight into his past fights, but he’s at that age where his general style will punish him if he doesn’t adjust in subtle ways.
Phil: Swanson kept a torrid pace against Choi, in one of the best fights of the year, but it was almost always a pace which he was dictating. The two men came to throw power, and Swanson was simply able to throw more and keep going. Ortega, I think, is a different proposition. He hits hard, but more than that he keeps an absolutely brutal pace, one which Cub cannot let him dictate. It’s also worth noting that Cub has had his own brain-fart losses to opportunists, most notably his defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory loss to Ricardo Lamas.
X-Factors
Phil: Any added pressure from Cub due to fighting out his contract. I’m also curious to see if he works his head and body kicks (hell, maybe even the cartwheel kick), because Ortega does tend to get zoned in on his boxing game. Ortega has been freakishly tough, and Swanson’s finishing ability does appear to be leaking away somewhat, so if Swanson has to put him away I suspect it’ll be from kicking him in the head.
David: Boom. If there’s one thing I didn’t think worked in Ortega’s favor, it was the tunnel vision he enjoyed in his punch in the face contest with Moicano. It looked like Ortega was actively begging for the horns from the bull. Swanson doesn’t have the raw, chain link offense of Moicano, which is paradoxically what makes him more dangerous for Brian; Ortega won’t be able to easily predict Cub’s attack, and thus could find himself getting hit with shots he didn’t expect (Swanson’s odd specialty).
Prognostication
Phil: This should be an excellent, competitive fight. Swanson will find a willing target for his wild and wacky power strikes, and Ortega’s chin will likely get tested fairly hard. However, the general direction of travel seems to favour Ortega. I’m not convinced that Cub can throw, and throw, and throw with the youngster for five rounds, and while he’s a good grappler, he’s never been so incredibly stable that I’d trust him in Ortega’s guard. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him simply be too fast for Ortega, and flummox him from the outside with long right hands and body kicks, but in the end I think Ortega’s relentless pressure will be just a bit too much. Brian Ortega by submission, round 4.
David: I expect Ortega’s rugged forward movement to wear Swanson down over five rounds. Swanson normally has good options, and is a swift wrestler, but that’s not a game he’ll win. I expect Cub to style on Ortega in the first round, and probably the second. As long as Ortega’s alive by then, he’ll swamp him. Brian Ortega by RNC, round 4.