Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd fight card in Sacramento, California.
The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC Sacramento, and most of us are going with Germaine de Randamie to beat Aspen Ladd in the main event. As for the co-mian, only Tim Burke is brave enough to go for Urijah Faber to return from retirement and triumph over Ricky Simon.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Germaine de Randamie vs. Aspen Ladd
Mookie Alexander: This has nothing to do with the weight cut, I think GdR is too much, too soon for Ladd. Her game is still very raw and GdR is really damn strong and a vastly superior striker. She has five-round experience, which I find very valuable in a fight of this magnitude. If Ladd doesn’t get off to a blazing fast start with her wrestling and grappling then this will be anywhere from a range kickboxing match to a clinch battle, and I think GdR has the advantage in both spots. Germaine de Randamie by TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: I hate to do this, because the path to victory for Ladd is pretty obvious, but I’ve gotta go with Germaine de Randamie. Ladd has, traditionally, taken a slow and steady approach to getting to her grappling game. Her first round finish of Tonya Evinger was almost entirely a product of Evinger trying to take her down, and dragging Ladd on top of her. Similarly, pretty much all the early grappling exchanges with Sijara Eubanks were initiated off Eubanks looking to grapple with Ladd. Given the chance, Ladd likes to push a high paced, pressure striking game early in fights, and get to her grappling in the second or 3rd round. Problem is, she’s still incredibly hittable and her striking technique lacks a lot of form. If she’s gonna slow start against GDR, I just can’t trust her to get the takedowns she needs later on. If she just comes out and plants GDR on the mat, she has the tools to dominate, but I don’t trust it. Germaine de Randamie via decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I went with Ladd on The Level Change this week, but at the risk of going the coward’s route I can’t see what Ladd looked like on that scale and stick with that pick in good faith. Stephie rightfully pointed out that Germaine’s got a good gas tank and good use of range, and that’s a death sentence against a fighter that got the shakes just getting on the scale. God, I can’t believe this shit got sanctioned. We truly deserve terrible things for supporting this. Germaine de Randamie by whatever.
Staff picking GdR: Zane, Mookie, Ed, Dayne, Phil, Victor
Staff picking Ladd: Nick, Tim, Shak
Urijah Faber vs. Ricky Simon
Mookie Alexander: Your heroes get old. Thanks for coming to my TED talk. Ricky Simon by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Before he retired, Faber’s bouts were notable for his lack of risk taking. To the point that it seemed like, when he couldn’t immediately physically dominate an opponent, he’d slide into a slow paced, range kickboxing match. One he wasn’t all that likely to win, but one that also would minimize his risk of taking a bad loss. If Simon goes all wild man on Faber, there’s a chance Faber backpacks him and either gets a sub or rides out a tough control win. But, that was also Rani Yahya’s path to victory, and Simon did a great job of staying composed in that fight and keeping the fight a kickboxing match. That makes me feel that this is most likely a bout Faber will survive, but not one he’ll win. Ricky Simon by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Faber may not have been packing on the pounds and doing nothing but play Sekiro in his time off, but it’s substantial time off as an older fighter coming in against a young dynamo like Simón. Faber won’t be able to control a grappler this wily for very long, and Ricky’s counter game is pretty damn good. Ricky Simón by decision.
Staff picking Faber: Tim
Staff picking Simon: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Ed, Dayne, Phil, Shak, Victor
Josh Emmett vs. Mirsad Bektic
Mookie Alexander: Really sounds simple to pick Emmett based on his KO power when Bektic is the superior, more athletic, more complete overall fighter… and yet that’s why I’m picking Emmett. Bektic certainly has the power to KO Emmett, and he has shown some lethal body work in past fights, but much like Zane, I see a scenario where it just takes one punch from the otherwise low-output Emmett to change things. Josh Emmett by KO, round 2.
Zane Simon: I’m incredibly torn on this fight. Bektic has a much more well rounded game, with a high-octane wrestling style, fantastic transition striking, and great positional awareness. He also hits like a truck. But, he’s still a bit of a clunky striker, who seems to decide on his combos and throw them without a lot of regard for what might be coming back. It means he packs power, but is also open to getting countered. Emmett, on the other hand, tends to only throw huge power hooks, all to the head, all at the same speed. He throws them moving forward or backward, leading or countering, but it’s about 80% of his game. He’s predictable in it, but super dangerous if his opponent lets their guard down. He’s also fast enough and a decent enough wrestler to keep the fight mostly standing and at range. Bektic probably wins most of the moment-to-moment parts of the fight with a determined wrestling attack and big punches when he needs them. But, I can’t shake the feeling that sooner or later his shakey defense will let him down, and Emmett will clock him. Hard. Josh Emmett via KO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Bekti? has ways to win this fight, but Emmett seems tailored to snuff him out like a stale cigarette. With strength, cardio, takedown defense and a counterstriking game coupled with hellacious punches on the way back, there’s not much Mirsad can do that Josh won’t be ready for. Josh Emmett by decision.
Staff picking Emmett: Zane, Mookie, Shak, Victor
Staff picking Bektic: Nick, Tim, Ed, Dayne, Phil
Wellington Turman vs. Karl Roberson
Mookie Alexander: No. That’s not a real name. Karl Roberson by KO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Roberson is a much more polished, powerful kickboxer, and Turman isn’t a good enough wrestler to make me think he easily changes that striking dynamic. Karl Roberson via KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Yeah, I’m supposed to believe “Wellington Turman” isn’t an alias for Ron Stallings. You ain’t low, UFC. I see you. Karl Roberson by whatever.
Staff picking Turman:
Staff picking Roberson: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Ed, Dayne, Phil, Shak, Victor
Cezar Ferreira vs. Marvin Vettori
Mookie Alexander: This is going to be an extremely middleweight fight. I think I’ve seen enough of Mutante to figure out that his cardio is bad and he falls apart when he doesn’t get the fight that he wants. Vettori is a serviceable fighter and at this point that’s probably enough to get a W here. Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: The fact that Ferreira gassed while beating Ian Heinisch is deeply troubling. Also, outside of his sub over Roberson, his win over 2017 Nate Marquardt just wasn’t all that impressive. Elias Theodorou and Heinisch both showed that the biggest things needed to beat Ferreira right now are toughness, pace, and cardio. Vettori may not have a ton of other tools, but he’s never been subbed and he loves to try and be the bully. Marvin Vettori by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I think we’ve seen the best of Cezar already, and while a talented athlete and good generalist, that’s about it. We’re not going to see substantial improvements from here on in. Marvin’s also got an established ceiling, but he’s a finished product that isn’t on the decline that Mutante is. Can’t trust Cezar. Nope. Just can’t. Marvin Vettori by decision.
Staff picking Ferreira: Shak
Staff picking Vettori: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Ed, Dayne, Phil, Victor
John Allan vs. Mike Rodriguez
Zane Simon: Allan just seems a lot more predictable and footslow out in kickboxing range. And he doesn’t seem like he has enough other parts to his style to make me think he takes advantage of Rodriguez’s sub-par wrestling and grappling. Mike Rodriguez via KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Mike is a sneaky good hitter once he gets comfortable. Gotta see if he manages to find a tempo that lets him get the work in to land those shots and hurt Allan. I’m confident he will. Mike Rodriguez (no relation) by decision.
Staff picking Allan:
Staff picking Rodriguez: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Ed, Dayne, Shak, Phil, Victor
Andre Fili vs. Sheymon Moraes
Zane Simon: I expect Fili to be extremely well prepared for this fight, and walk a very fine line, quite probably winning close rounds along the way. But, even in his recent better performances, he’s rarely been a controlling fighter, and he’s often continued to be a defensive liability. Moraes just seems like he hits too hard and varies his targets too well for me to feel like Fili can pick him apart for 15 minutes without getting cracked. Sheymon Moraes via KO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Moraes has serviceable takedown and submission defense, but Fili might actually exploit that. Unfortunately, I don’t trust him either. Sheymon Moraes, I guess.
Staff picking Fili: Tim, Dayne
Staff picking Moraes: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Ed, Shak, Phil, Victor
Nicco Montano vs. Julianna Pena
Mookie Alexander: Really other than cage rust and the uncertainty of how she’ll fight after giving birth to a child, this is Pena’s fight to lose. She’s among the strongest fighters at 135 lbs and Montano is still relatively inexperienced against actual high-level competition. Her takedown defense is unlikely to hold up and Pena isn’t going to get caught in a sub against Nicco. Julianna Pena by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Montano seems too easy to take down and far too willing to play an aggressive guard game off her back for me to trust her moving up in weight against a fairly powerful, aggressive wrestler. Pam Sorenson and Julia Avila aren’t noted technical marvels, but their size, toughness, and aggression was enough to pick up wins. I think that’ll be enough for Pena too. Julianna Pena by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Gotta disagree with Zane here. Nicco’s not that easy to take down, but a wrestler as dogged and strong as Peña is almost guaranteed to take her down as the fight goes on and really work that top control late. Julianna’s physicality will probably be to much. That’s not a knock on Nicco, but she’s undersized and likely to get outmuscled, even against a fighter that’s been out of the game for as long as Julianna has. Julianna Peña by submission.
Staff picking Montano: Ed
Staff picking Pena: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Dayne, Shak, Phil, Victor
Darren Elkins vs. Ryan Hall
Mookie Alexander: Elkins’ durability may finally be waning, but Ryan Hall is also not really the guy to deliver that type of offensive damage that we’ve seen Darren absorb and often overcome. Hall is as dangerous as it gets going for a wide variety of submissions, especially leglocks, but I’d like to think there are serious limitations to that game at a high-level. Elkins would be wise to not even try to grapple with Hall, and instead take a rather ugly kickboxing battle. Darren Elkins by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Elkins almost never gets submitted, but he also doesn’t often fight high quality grappling specialists who can chain together a variety of quality subs. If Elkins can survive the first long grappling exchange he has with Hall, I think he can probably break him just with pace and aggression. But, I got Ryan Hall by submission, round 1.
Staff picking Elkins: Mookie, Ed, Phil, Victor
Staff picking Hall: Zane, Nick, Tim, Dayne, Shak
Jonathan Martinez vs. Liu Pingyuan
Zane Simon: Pingyuan plays a very solid game based on continues pressure. Pressure boxing into aggressive wrestling into aggressive grappling. Martinez is fun, and has some tricky skills, but he’s also not that hard to take down and control. As long as Pingyuan keeps going after him, I expect he’ll spend a lot of time on top, winning this fight. Liu Pingyuan by decision.
Staff picking Martinez: Dayne, Victor
Staff picking Pingyuan: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Ed, Shak, Phil
Brianna VanBuren vs. Livia Renata Souza
Zane Simon: Tough fight. VanBuren is a solid, powerful wrestler with some pop in her hands. Souza is a relentlessly aggressive grappler, who is a much more willing striker than she should be, given her complete lack of form and defense standing. If VanBuren just keeps Souza off the mat and pot shots her, she’s got a great chance at winning. But, I think she just likes to wrestle too much, and I don’t trust her to survive on the ground against the more aggressive, craftier veteran. Livia Renata Souza by submission, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Brianna’s reach disadvantage should be a problem, and Livia’s got pretty good takedown defense and hits hard as hell. That and a sneaky submission game lead me to believe Brianna’s gonna have some good performances in the UFC, but this matchup won’t be the best introduction for those that haven’t seen her fight before. Livia Souza by TKO.
Staff picking VanBuren:
Staff picking Souza: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Ed, Dayne, Shak, Phil, Victor
Benito Lopez vs. Vince Morales
Zane Simon: Morales is a solid counterpuncher and much less likely to put himself in bad positions than the relentlessly aggressive Benito Lopez. Lopez will likely fight Morales to the hilt, but is just as likely to make big moves that lose him rounds as he is to make moves that win him rounds. Should be a wild one. But, I’ll take the more composed guy to win it, given that each man seems pretty tough to put away. Vince Morales via decision.
Staff picking Lopez: Ed, Dayne
Staff picking Morales: Zane, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Shak, Phil, Victor