UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir – Idiot’s Guide Preview to Dan Kelly vs Antonio Carlos Junior

The three things you need to know about why the UFC is feeding the hometown Olympian to the prospect dogs for UFN 85 in Australia.

Former Olympic Judoka Dan Kelly looks to avoid getting turned into roadkill this March 20, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia.

The Match Up

Middleweight Dan Kelly 10-1 vs. Antônio Carlos Júnior 5-1-1 NC

The Odds

Middleweight Dan Kelly +400 vs. Antônio Carlos Júnior -500

3 Things You Should Know

1. Dan Kelly was been way better than assumed, but is still a deceiving 3-1 in the UFC.

Maybe it’s just the lingering odor of Kelly’s bout with Patrick Walsh, but whatever the case, Kelly has slowly turned it around when it comes to entertainment. Still, at 38 years of age, it’s hard to imagine this bout looking anything other than one sided. Kelly isn’t fighting Royce Gracie. Or Pat Smith. He’s fighting an actual prospect who would terrible for Walsh stylistically even if Junior wasn’t a slick black belt.

2. Then again any fight can be one eye poke away from oblivion.

It’d be nice if there were actual consequences to poking opponents in the eye because it’s the easiest thing to avoid. But MMA is like the NHL, good at dealing with issues that don’t matter, but bad at dealing with the ones that do. Anyway, Antonio Carlos Junior could be talking about a win since he didn’t need Three Stooge sorcery to beat Kevin Casey. Instead we’re talking about his non contest. Make no mistake though. This is Junior’s fight to lose.

3. Make no mistake. This is Junior’s fight to lose.

Just in case the stakes aren’t obvious for this bout. Kelly is fairly technical, as you’d expect an Olympian to be. He’s Judo’s old, hip replaced version of Demian Maia in that his talents aren’t always obvious. Technique tends to be subtle, and that’s where Kelly excels. His hands, elbows, legs, and hips are always in the right place for a proper takedown. His striking isn’t awful because he fights within his southpaw limitations; switching between the straight left and the right hook with an economy that doesn’t betray his durability.

The problem for Kelly is that whatever athleticism he used to have is all but gone. For Carlos Junior, all of that muscle memory is just getting started. Unlike the black belts of yesteryear, Junior has committed himself to striking his way in and out of takedowns. He has a keen sense for when and how to pressure, and maintains a steady pace with his fists as well as his feet. On the ground, he’s great at forcing opponents to scramble or disengage. Either with brutal top control punching, or guard passing, his aggression serves him well and will in this waste of a bout.

Prediction

It’d be one thing if Kelly could close the distance, but he can’t, and Junior won’t let him. Junior could have Sage Northcutt’s instincts on the ground, and it wouldn’t matte. He keeps a very wide, and heavy base when striking on the feet which will make clinch/takedown entries that much more difficult for Kelly, who is simply outgunned in every possible way here. Antonio Carlos Junior via hatred for not being challenged, round 1.

The three things you need to know about why the UFC is feeding the hometown Olympian to the prospect dogs for UFN 85 in Australia.

Former Olympic Judoka Dan Kelly looks to avoid getting turned into roadkill this March 20, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia.

The Match Up

Middleweight Dan Kelly 10-1 vs. Antônio Carlos Júnior 5-1-1 NC

The Odds

Middleweight Dan Kelly +400 vs. Antônio Carlos Júnior -500

3 Things You Should Know

1. Dan Kelly was been way better than assumed, but is still a deceiving 3-1 in the UFC.

Maybe it’s just the lingering odor of Kelly’s bout with Patrick Walsh, but whatever the case, Kelly has slowly turned it around when it comes to entertainment. Still, at 38 years of age, it’s hard to imagine this bout looking anything other than one sided. Kelly isn’t fighting Royce Gracie. Or Pat Smith. He’s fighting an actual prospect who would terrible for Walsh stylistically even if Junior wasn’t a slick black belt.

2. Then again any fight can be one eye poke away from oblivion.

It’d be nice if there were actual consequences to poking opponents in the eye because it’s the easiest thing to avoid. But MMA is like the NHL, good at dealing with issues that don’t matter, but bad at dealing with the ones that do. Anyway, Antonio Carlos Junior could be talking about a win since he didn’t need Three Stooge sorcery to beat Kevin Casey. Instead we’re talking about his non contest. Make no mistake though. This is Junior’s fight to lose.

3. Make no mistake. This is Junior’s fight to lose.

Just in case the stakes aren’t obvious for this bout. Kelly is fairly technical, as you’d expect an Olympian to be. He’s Judo’s old, hip replaced version of Demian Maia in that his talents aren’t always obvious. Technique tends to be subtle, and that’s where Kelly excels. His hands, elbows, legs, and hips are always in the right place for a proper takedown. His striking isn’t awful because he fights within his southpaw limitations; switching between the straight left and the right hook with an economy that doesn’t betray his durability.

The problem for Kelly is that whatever athleticism he used to have is all but gone. For Carlos Junior, all of that muscle memory is just getting started. Unlike the black belts of yesteryear, Junior has committed himself to striking his way in and out of takedowns. He has a keen sense for when and how to pressure, and maintains a steady pace with his fists as well as his feet. On the ground, he’s great at forcing opponents to scramble or disengage. Either with brutal top control punching, or guard passing, his aggression serves him well and will in this waste of a bout.

Prediction

It’d be one thing if Kelly could close the distance, but he can’t, and Junior won’t let him. Junior could have Sage Northcutt’s instincts on the ground, and it wouldn’t matte. He keeps a very wide, and heavy base when striking on the feet which will make clinch/takedown entries that much more difficult for Kelly, who is simply outgunned in every possible way here. Antonio Carlos Junior via hatred for not being challenged, round 1.