This March 20, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia, Mark Hunt battles Frank Mir in the main event for a heavyweight bout with probably-not title shot implications. Hector Lombard and Neil Magny round out the co-main. Check out Bloody Elbow’s extensive fight coverage on all things preview, prediction, odds, and analysis related.
A fairly talent laden undercard ignites the fans down under this March 20, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia.
The Line Up
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Welterweight Brendan O’Reilly vs. Alan Jouban
Featherweight Dan Hooker vs. Mark Eddiva
Women’s Bantamweight Leslie Smith vs. Rin Nakai
Welterweight Richard Walsh vs. Viscardi Andrade
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight Ross Pearson vs. Chad Laprise
Lightweight Alan Patrick vs. Damien Brown
The Odds
Alan Jouban -485 Brendan O’Reilly +385
Daniel Hooker -200 Mark Eddiva +170
Richard Walsh -110 Viscardi Andrade -110
Alan Patrick -250 Damien Brown +210
Chad Laprise -120 Ross Pearson +100
Leslie Smith -160 Rin Nakai +140
The Rundown
Welterweight Brendan O’Reilly vs. Alan Jouban
The Badger with no honey tried to make it in a TUF eat TUF world, and didn’t, but he’s 1-1 in the UFC. He’ll be taking on Abercrombie and Kitsch bad boy, Alan Jouban, who recently got ruined by Albert Tumenov (like most of Albert’s opponents). The fight will be a predictable mashup of O’Reilly desperately reaching for takedowns far and wide while Jouban wings desperation strikes far and wide. O’Reilly has ok pop in his strikes, but he’s a bowling ball of a welterweight, and isn’t interesting in trying to be effective on the feet. Which is fine. Play to your strengths. But he’s gonna need more than strength to overcome Jouban’s sturdy windmill striking.
Featherweight Dan Hooker vs. Mark Eddiva
Hooker and Eddiva are both coming off losses (two in Eddiva’s case), which means you’ll have two very desperate men exchanging punches to the face. Both guys are striking-centric grapplers if that makes any sense. As in, they’re sometimes more willing to initiate scrambles and clinchwork than stay at range and work their kickboxing. Which is somewhat odd since both carry wiry frames at featherweight. Neither maximizes their reach, but only because they’re not elite kickboxers. They do have some decent pop, and Eddiva has shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and exchange leather.
Women’s Bantamweight Leslie Smith vs. Rin Nakai
We all remember Leslie don’t we kid?!?
Remember when Jessica Eye made Leslie Smith’s ear explode? #UFCChicago https://t.co/AbypzpsN5Y
— MMA GIFS (@mma_gifs_) July 26, 2015
So much for lunch. This is an odd(ish) fight to make if the UFC wants Nakai to be a perennial main carder for their Japanese shows. Then again any fight with Rin Nakai is sort of ‘odd’ for neophytes googling her for the first time. Nakai’s problem is that her reach is almost insurmountable. Miesha Tate’s performance against Nakai was a career worst, and yet Nakai still looked bad. Rin has to be able to close the distance in order to be effective. The octagon gives her so much room that I think it screws with her spatial awareness. Once she closes the gap, she’s a demon in the scramble; deft back control, and a heavy top game make up the bulk of her grappling work. Smith will do what she likes to do which is bend it like Jouban. She plowed through Jessamyn Duke (inexplicably still under UFC contract), but then again so have all the cool kids lately. Leslie has always taken cues from the Diaz brothers, and it’s an instinct that will server her well when she’s able to keep the fight at range while Nakai desperately searches for clinch, single leg, and knee tap entries.
Welterweight Richard Walsh vs. Viscardi Andrade
Filthy Rich versus some guy who sounds like a mixed drink named after a European sports car. In all seriousness, these is a decent fight between two large welterweights. Walsh is a big burly fighter who thrives in the clinch with massive blows, and short range strikes that allow him to separate without skipping a pugilism beat. He’s very heavy in top control, and so is Andrade. Andrade’s boxing is rudimentary, but he utilizes his wingspan well whenever the opportunity presents itself; for reference, see the Musoke fight.
Lightweight Ross Pearson vs. Chad Laprise
It’s a battle of the Francisco Trinaldo leftovers! This is just straight up excellent matchmaking. Laprise is still one of TUF’s better products in recent memory. He owns one of the slickest knockouts of the past several seasons, and displays all the things you want to see out of a UFC fighter who wants to win with boxing; constant movement without overdoing it, a steady piercing job, and a boilermaker of a right hand that’s used to both pressure as well as counter. Pearson’s biggest issue has always been how he deals with raw speed and movement. Pearson is also a good boxer, but he doesn’t have the movement (offensively or defensively) to use that boxing for angle cutting and pressure. He’s got a boxer’s chance rather than a puncher’s chance, and that hurts his durability in fights. I think he’ll be able to deal with Laprise’s pressure in intervals. He’s a good counter puncher, and sets up his combinations well. But over three rounds? Not likely.
Lightweight Alan Patrick vs. Damien Brown
If you can spare 15 minutes of your MMA life, I suggest watching Brown’s fight with Tim Wilde (who should be getting the UFC call any day now):
It’s fantastic back and forth action that shows you what Brown, who will be making his UFC debut, brings. He has kind of a rigid stance on the feet, but it’s somewhat deliberate; when he shoots, he masks his movement well, and closes the distance fast. With a few good snapping front kicks in his arsenal, he’s a reasonable threat to those uninitiated to ground warfare.
Unfortunately for Brown, Alan “Nuguette” Patrick is not that man. He’s quick on the ground, and quick on the feet. His talent combined with his athleticism towards the former should be more than enough to offset his lack of talent towards the latter. Brown just isn’t the fighter to capitalize on Patrick’s weakness on the feet, which is kind of the only way he could theoretically win.
Predictions
Jouban by TKO, round 2
Hooker by Decision
Smith by Decision
Walsh by Decision
Laprise by Decision
Patrick by Decision