Phil and David break down everything you need about a good time at the Heavyweight division for UFN 85 in Australia, and everything you don’t about a future-less division.
Mark Hunt vs Frank Mir do heavyweight war this March 19, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia.
Single sentence summary:
Phil: Rock takes on paper, and perhaps that doesn’t play out like the game does in real life,
David: It’s highlighter versus glue in heavyweight’s game of rock, paper, scissors.
Stats?
Mark Hunt 11-10-1
Odds: -450
Frank Mir 18-10
Odds: +400
History lesson / introduction to the fighters
Phil: We preview heavyweights a lot. We’ve previewed Mark Hunt a LOT.
David: For Mark Hunt, I can’t complain too much. He’s been fun to follow since his K-1 days, and it’s still more than a little shocking to see him compete against the UFC’s best and remain inexplicably competitive. Still, as a writer, you really have the scrape the bottom of the creative barrel when it comes to wordsmithing Hunt’s assets, flaws, and how the two can influence outcomes. In summation, hooray for Hunto!
Phil: Get paid, Mr. Hunt. I believe White recently revealed they offered Mark Hunt 450K to step away from the UFC. He’s made more than that in his time in the UFC, and when he retires it’ll be as a fan favourite for more than one generation.
David: Is he nuts?? That sounds better than a six figure contract.
Phil: Welcome to the latest incarnation of Frank Mir. We’ve had Submission Prospect, The Champ, Ruined by Injury, Boxing Mir, the brief and ill-advised musclebound stint as Mir 2.0, The Gatekeeper, The Downslope, and now this. What exactly is this latest version of Frank Mir? He’s kind of… fat, but still crafty, and crafty violence is basically what Mir has lived on throughout his long, long UFC career. Not very big, or strong, or fast, or durable, or even possessing of great cardio, but a smart guy and capable of ending fights very quickly.
David: Fat?? Wait a minute Phil. Have you fought in a cage before? Have you laid your life on the line against a superior athlete who could snap your neck like a twig? Because if not, I don’t think you have the balls to sit here and criticize Frank. Especially on facebook. Wait. Let’s backtrack a second. Does this logic apply to writing itself? How can Frank criticize media members when he hasn’t dug deep in the keyboard trenches, and fought diligently to harmonize thoughts with words like we do? In all seriousness, I like Mir. We say it all the time, but he’s an incredibly candid voice on the MMA scene, and always offers technical insight when doing commentary. Plus his career is a minor miracle. Kudos, keyboard warrior basher.
What are the stakes?
Phil: Everyone fights each other at heavyweight sooner or later. This fight is going to be a check mark on the gradually filling matrix of potential matchups. The only real difference is that the winner goes on to fight someone who won their last fight, and the loser goes on to fight someone who lost their last fight. Progress is illusory.
David: Illusory, and sometimes simply not available. The stakes are entirely spiritual. Both guys want to put on a good performance, which is sometimes enough to get a shot at the Interim title while the lineal champ nurses whatever Joe Grasso inspired training injury that happens to come along.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Hunt wants punches. Mir… maybe wants punches also? I’m actually trying to think of the times in recent memory that Frank has successfully completed a takedown. I think he’s hit a few on guys like Nelson and maybe even JDS, but he hasn’t managed to convert any of those takedowns into serious offense. All his submissions have come off people being hurt- either opponents or himself. Hunt’s takedown defense oscillates between rock-solid and really bad (he’s occasionally been taken over just by tipping him with a single leg, but it is almost physiologically impossible to lock up a double on him), so I can’t say I’d be blown away to see Mir take him down, but it’s certainly not a common approach Frank’s taken. Regardless, I think we can say that Mark is going to stay with the tried and true- a variety of left hooks at a bunch of different speeds, while Mir is going to show a bit more variety.
David: Hunt has always survived, thrived, and jived on the basis of how he counters, pressures, and diabolically cuts off the ring in short bursts. It’s the kind of strategy that would make Hector Lombard master of the universe. Obviously, everyone talks about his left hook because that’s his money maker. But Hunt does what Mike Tyson used to do; making sure that he’s getting opportunities coming in and around the jab. He’s a short fighter, so he’ll concede distance but he’s effective at heavyweight not just because of his speed, but because of his entries.
Phil: Mir has collected an odd bag of tricks throughout his incarnations. He can fight out of both stances pretty effectively at this point. He had a nice southpaw body kick at one point, as well as a sound uppercut, and a good one-two. A strong thai clinch was in effect against Roy Nelson, and the submission acumen has never gone away. The problem is that apart from the submissions, no part of his game has ever not been taken apart by other opponents. Barnett abused him in the clinch, JDS outboxed him, and so on. As such, Mir sometimes often seems to come out with a plan which immediately falls flat due to a lack of technical depth or athletic ability in any one area which he can easily access.
David: Mir has fined tuned his versatility in a way that didn’t seem metaphysically possible before and after his motorcycle accident. As such, he doesn’t always maintain the rhythm he wants to create for the fight. I still feel like his left hand has enough power to haunt Hunt just by virtue of Mir’s scouting. Frank is an academic when it comes to pugilism, and I think that tends to catch opponents off guard who come in with perfunctory gameplans. I’d like to see him more committed to the ground, but I think he understands his limitations, and searches for those critical strikes that allow him to transition when the time permits.
Insight from past fights?
Phil: Who looked worse in their last bout? I’m not actually sure. See, Hunt knocked out Bigfoot, as everyone expected, but I genuinely feel like he made that fight far harder on himself than he needed to. Given how incredibly fragile Bigfoot is of late, I think all Hunt really had to do was blitz him once. Instead he seemed far too tentative, and took a few punches and kicks from the fading giant. Seems odd to criticize a first round TKO, but there you go.
David: Yea but is that better than Mir’s wine ’em, dine ’em, and redefine ’em with a dictionary of strikes that he tried against Todd Duffee? I have to watch that fight periodically to better understand the concept of entropy.
X-Factors?
Phil: The level of physical decline is interesting. Hunt seems to be training harder, but I think that while this fight in no way resembles the actual fighting dynamics, it has some odd, faint physical callbacks to Bisping-Silva. Mir is essentially a gatekeeper-level athlete who’s kept himself up there for years with smarts and moxie. Hunt is a much, much better athlete but has relied on that athleticism much more than Mir has. Thus, one fighter is actually better insulated from the declines of age. Again, whether Hunt is actually training seriously and not having to make massive cuts to 265 is also a major factor.
David: Hunt’s natural ability just can’t carry him anymore. The problem with decline is that the first thing it effects is a fighter’s defense. Yea Mir is not the most dangerous striker, but he doesn’t need to hit hard to threaten Hunt. He just needs to land enough so that Hunt’s too affected to generate his own offense.
Prognostication:
Phil: You know what, I’d like to see Mir win. I know everyone loves Hunt, but I kind of like seeing Mir pull out unconventional wins. I enjoy his post-fight interviews. That said, unless his wrestling is hugely improved, this is a five round kickboxing match. In recent years his cardio hasn’t been great, so I’m not sure he can even wear Hunt down. In the end, don’t think power is the issue here as much as durability is. Mark Hunt by TKO, round 2.
David: These are the fights Mir tends to win; stylistic nightmares against over the hill fan favorites. As such, Mir winning this bout via knockout is utterly and completely possible. In fact, it’s spiritually inevitable in my opinion. Frank Mir by TKO, round 2.