Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Friday’s UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman card in Boston, MA.
The Bloody Elbow staff has made its picks for Friday’s UFC Boston card, and everyone is going with Dominick Reyes to beat Chris Weidman in the main event. Don’t you dare even bring up the Bloody Elbow staff curse, because Joanna Jedrzejczyk personally ended the curse last week! As for the co-main, there’s an edge towards Yair Rodriguez finding a foul-free route to victory against Jeremy Stephens.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Dominick Reyes vs. Chris Weidman
Mookie Alexander: I want to pick Weidman here, but I just can’t do it. He has absorbed vicious punishment in five consecutive fights, including almost getting knocked out against Kelvin Gastelum. That damage plus his injury history and his age (and his historical defensive problems) has me thinking this move up to 205 lbs is too little, too late. Reyes is a bigger fighter, a pretty good wrestler, and a powerful striker. He didn’t overly impress vs. Volkan Oezdemir but Oezdemir has broken through as a legitimate contender and not just a flash in the pan. His knockout power is undeniable and I’ve never really seen him hurt, so unless Weidman can own Reyes on the mat, I have to think Reyes catches Weidman with a huge shot at some point and that’s that. Dominick Reyes by KO, round 3.
Zane Simon: There’s not much reason that Weidman can’t immediately become one of the most technically dominant wrestlers at light heavyweight immediately. It’s not exactly a division known for its grinders. But, there’s kind of a good reason for that. At light heavyweight the rule of law seems to be all about dangerous finishing ability. The knack for finding a sub or KO at any moment. Fighters can get out-pointed, out-wrestled, and outstruck for round after round, only to win on the back of a great single piece of offense. That seems like an especially bad fit for Weidman who has, as of late, found himself already winning the majority of his bouts, only to get blasted unconscious by single dynamic bursts. His style of fighting leads him forward, his defense doesn’t protect him as well as it should. And moreover, he seems to slow down over rounds. All of which lead to rough KO losses. Reyes’ game isn’t the deepest one out there. But he consistently throws hard, straight shots, going forward and backward, he’s tough as hell, and he seems to be indefatigable. I expect Weidman to start hot and fight well, but… then we know that tends to go. Dominick Reyes via KO, round 3.
Staff picking Reyes: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Weidman:
Yair Rodriguez vs. Jeremy Stephens
Mookie Alexander: My opinions about this fight are largely unchanged from their first encounter, so I’ll just copy-and-paste what I wrote last time but note that it’s a three-rounder this time.
I love watching Yair Rodriguez fight but I am simultaneously not sold on him as a future title challenger. His “cool shit to technical brilliance” ratio makes him as single-shot dangerous against anyone, but the flip side is getting outclassed by The Korean Zombie for prolonged stretches before that hail mary KO. Stephens has power and Rodriguez’s defense is not good, but Yair can really make life hell for him with his kicks and body work. It’s also been a longtime habit of Stephens to get frustrated into sloppy footwork and questionable strike selection when the fight isn’t going his way. Stephens may put a few scares into Yair but Yair has more firepower and is likely to keep that pace up for THREE rounds. Yair Rodriguez by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: My opinions are also similar, in that Rodriguez is just big and tough and incredibly fast and that Stephens will be annoyed by him too much, but I am a little concerned at how many people are picking him: I consider this pick a bit of a flyer, as Stephens is quite clearly “better” at MMA in many key ways. Yair Rodriguez by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Put me in the camp of firmly unsold on Rodriguez’s technical edge of Stephens. Yair is going to be faster than pretty much everyone, but it remains to be seen just how much he makes that count if he’s not getting the KO. Despite his marked speed advantage and high volume kicking game, whenever he throws his hands he tends to sit right in front of his opponents and trade shots in 50/50 exchanges. I’ve never seen him stay elusive on the back foot and keep an opponent off him. If he’s going to sit in front of Stephens and trade, then both men have had rare KO losses, and he has the better chance to surprise, but I think he’s also more likely to get melted by the bigger power shots. Jeremy Stephens via KO, round 2.
Staff picking Rodriguez: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Stephie
Staff picking Stephens: Dayne, Zane
Greg Hardy vs. Ben Sosoli
Mookie Alexander: The UFC has actually done an appropriate job booking a very inexperienced prospect with an appropriate caliber of opponent. Of course, they opted to do it with Greg Hardy. Anyway… Greg Hardy by KO, round 1. (It’d be great if Sosoli won, though!)
Zane Simon: Everything is skewed for Hardy to win here. Sosoli is smaller than Chris Weidman as a heavyweight. And his (admittedly hilarious) self drawn abs lend some reasonable concern that his heavyweight career may be more about a lack of desire to stay fit than it is a necessity of his size. But, it is worth noting that he has a great chin and better boxing than anyone Hardy has faced to date. He’s also unlikely to ever try and shoot a takedown, which has been the downfall of just about everyone Hardy’s beat lately, as it really lets his monstrous frame come into play on the sprawl. Sosoli’s takedown D has been miserable, but is Hardy going to take him down? What the hell, I’ll take Ben Sosoli via decision.
Staff picking Hardy: Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Sosoli: Ed, Phil, Zane
Joe Lauzon vs. Jonathan Pearce
Mookie Alexander: Joe Lauzon is one of my all-time favorite action fighters, but that Chris Greutzemacher fight told me has just about nothing left, and that sucks. If Pearce can survive the first few minutes, then the rest of this will be sad to watch. Jonathan Pearce by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Yeah, I’m not sure there’s a lightweight on the roster that I’d take Lauzon to beat right now. And Pearce actually seems like he has some size and some sharp counterpunching. Jonathan Pearce via KO, round 1.
Staff picking Lauzon:
Staff picking Pearce: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Maycee Barber vs. Gillian Robertson
Mookie Alexander: This just has the feel of “exciting prospect gets a loss that an exciting prospect usually gets in MMA” type of matchup. Barber is the more physical, stronger, powerful athlete but we did see her have some trouble with JJ Aldrich prior to getting the stoppage win. Robertson doesn’t present those same dangers on the feet, but if this does go to the ground, then I think Barber can get baited into a mistake and giving up her arm in an instant. I’m sensing an upset here. Gillian Robertson by submission, round 1.
Zane Simon: I won’t be at all surprised if Barber’s notable lack of defense and supreme self confidence lead her straight into an armbar or a triangle from Robertson. But, I’m also not that confident that Robertson’s game is really designed to fight an athlete as big and strong as Barber. Robertson is all about submission over position on the ground, and her boxing game is notable wooden and gunshy. If Barber just keeps the pressure on and doesn’t make a huge grappling mistake, I think she probably rides out the win. But, it may only take a second’s slip in concentration to be on the wrong end of a submission loss. Maycee Barber by decision.
Staff picking Barber: Nick, Zane
Staff picking Robertson: Ed, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie
Deron Winn vs. Darren Stewart
Mookie Alexander: Mini-Cormier was super willing to slug it out with Eric Spicely, which entertained everyone but I’d like to think he won’t fight like that all the time. I actually think Stewart is a live dog here, as he does have good power — certainly more dangerous than Spicely — and his takedown defense has improved. I don’t think he can hold up against Winn’s pace, and Winn may be undersized but he is a quality wrestler and I can see him grinding this one out against Stewart. Deron Winn by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Winn’s lack of size is a real concern at some point, if he can’t get leverage to hit easy takedowns. It’s going to force him into a lot of striking exchanges where he’s going to have to live on volume despite a huge reach advantage. That said, Stewart seems like exactly the kind of fighter who is only really comfortable at all when the fight is at a nice slow pace, or when he’s totally physically dominating. Neither of those seem likely here. Deron Winn by decision.
Staff picking Winn: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Stewart:
Manny Bermudez vs. Charles Rosa
Mookie Alexander: Manny Bermudez should consider doing a better job of cutting weight, because to force a 140 lbs catchweight in your last fight only to immediately miss at featherweight takes some doing. Anyway, this matchup still favors him so… Manny Bermudez by submission, round 2.
Zane Simon: I really like Bermudez as a prospect, so I wish I was more confident in him getting this win. He’s the more technical grappler and striker, but I have no idea how much a lack of massive size advantage will impact his game. In his last fight, he got swept by a former flyweight–twice! More particularly his offense seems entirely designed to set up only a couple tools: a hard right hand, the triangle choke, and the guillotine. He does them all very well, but if his game falls apart against fighters better set to compete against him physically, then he may not have much to fall back on. Still, Rosa has been injured and out for a while now, has always had a wild, unstructured striking game based on volume over form, and tends to rely on his own aggressive grappling to safeguard him on the mat. If Bermudez can walk him down and land right hands all fight, or just take him down and set up one of his subs, it seems likely he’ll catch him repeatedly. Manny Bermudez via submission, round 2.
Staff picking Bermudez: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Rosa:
Diana Belbita vs. Molly McCann
Zane Simon: Belbita’s career to date is essentially equal to a good amateur run. She’s not at all ready to fight at this level. McCann has shown huge improvements in her last couple fights and should school her entirely. If she doesn’t, then that will be a pretty terrible look for ‘Meatball’. Molly McCann by decision.
Staff picking Belbita:
Staff picking McCann: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Kyle Bochniak vs. Sean Woodson
Zane Simon: Even Woodson’s nickname doesn’t suggest he throws a lot of volume. And that’s really been the key to beating Bochniak in his UFC career. Bochniak is rock tough, seems to gameplan pretty well for opponents, and can do a bit of everything (even if that means he doesn’t have one natural strength). Woodson was getting absolutely dominated on his way to the one-shot KO that got him his UFC contract, and it’s notable that that’s one of the few KO’s on his record to date. More of an outlier than the norm. If he can’t finish Bochniak, it’s hard to see him having the experience to out-craft him. Kyle Bochniak via decision.
Staff picking Bochniak: Nick, Mookie, Phil, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Woodson: Ed, Dayne
Brendan Allen vs. Kevin Holland
Zane Simon: Allen and Holland share a lot in common. They’re both big, rangy middleweights with aggressive offense in all areas that emphasizes wild technique over clean form. They both have major defensive gaps, and they both seem pretty ruggedly tough. But (and I’m not entirely sure of this) it seems like Allen is more willing to lose rounds in bad positions, with the idea that he can and will be dangerous at all times. He’s a great finisher, but his losses have come not to fighters who have a great depth of singular skills, but just to big strong athletes who could stay consistent. For Holland, he seems unwilling to give up rounds or positions at any time, even if he’s not hard to take down or back up. He’s always scrapping and fighting hard to reverse whatever spot he’s in. And for all the bad grappling spots he puts himself in, it’s notable that his only sub loss is to Rafael Lovato Jr. If Allen can’t sub him, I think Holland is going to be the one edging out rounds. Kevin Holland by decision.
Staff picking Allen: Ed
Staff picking Holland: Phil, Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Randy Costa vs. Boston Salmon
Zane Simon: Salmon was on the wrong end of a quick KO last time, but he’s got a pretty technical, functional pressure counterpunching style that he can use to beat a lot of opposition. Costa seems more like a fighter who has just been rushed to this level and is going to have to do a lot of adjusting to stay here. He’s got a wild power style based off constant hard kicks, power takedowns, and wild overhands. It can & will shock a lot of opponents early, but it also gasses him out quickly, and is full of defensive mistakes. As long as Salmon doesn’t get insta-slept again, he should have the patient technical style to win this. Boston Salmon by decision.
Staff picking Costa:
Staff picking Salmon: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Dayne, Stephie, Zane
Sean Brady vs. Court McGee
Zane Simon: Of all the young prospects on this card, Brady may be the best. He appears to have a dedicated counterpunching style that slowly unfolds over rounds to create more lead strikes as his opponents grow more cautious of walking into his shots. It’s not a dedicated pressure game, which means it likely often won’t lead to a lot of early finishes, but it also means it doesn’t walk him into big shots. Unfortunately for McGee, if readers look over his record, when he fights a good counterpuncher, he loses. His low power, high output striking style leads him to walk onto big shots constantly. If a fighter wants to go hammer & tongs with McGee and try to win a scrap based on cardio and heart, McGee will almost always take that fight. But opponents willing to sit back and let him come to them will find his chin out and waiting over and over. Sean Brady by decision.
Staff picking Brady: Ed, Nick, Zane
Staff picking McGee: Mookie, Dayne, Stephie
Daniel Spitz vs. Tanner Boser
Zane Simon: This fight is bad and there’s not a lot that distinguishes either man from his opponent. Spitz is freakishly tall, but his striking defense is likely worse (I’m not actually confident in that). Boser is a dedicated low kicker, but seems like one of the least powerful heavyweight punchers in recent memory. Still, he’s got a chin on him, and that will probably be enough to get this win. Tanner Boser via decision.
Staff picking Spitz:
Staff picking Boser: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Phil, Dayne, Stephie, Zane